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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:05 We are back to the action on the hardwood inside TD Garden in Boston.
00:10 It is game one of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and the Pacers.
00:15 And the story for Boston throughout this postseason run has been dominance
00:20 when they have won games and what the odds makers expect entering a game.
00:25 Boston has been at least a 7.5 point favorite in all 10 of their
00:29 playoff contests.
00:30 Tonight it's 10-2.
00:32 Double digits in favor of the Cs with a total at 221.5.
00:37 What do the numbers, DRS, as we see them pregame tell you about what we can
00:41 expect for the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals?
00:45 I think we get points.
00:46 And also it's telling you that this is supposed to be an easy Celtics victory.
00:49 Now, also in the past, game one in the Celtics building in round number one,
00:53 game one in the Celtics building in round number two had been nice victories
00:56 for the Boston Celtics.
00:57 It's game number two, Ben, that maybe we should be watching at.
01:00 But this is always a tricky environment because we know the Boston Celtics
01:03 will be rested and ready.
01:04 But what are we actually getting out of the Pacers?
01:06 Two things can happen in this environment, which is always tough to work.
01:09 And these aren't Xs and Os.
01:10 But we don't know officially how the Pacers are going to come out in this game.
01:14 Are they getting that game seven jump, excited, got that victory momentum
01:19 is on their side as they go in and try to upset the Celtics in round number one?
01:22 Or is it, "Whew, man, that was a nice little comeback to finally beat the Knicks
01:26 in an exciting, energized environment in Madison Square Garden.
01:29 And now we've got to stay on the road here and take on the Boston Celtics."
01:33 Because that could mean a 15 to 20 point blowout, or the Pacers get that bump.
01:37 That's why I'm staying away here from the side itself.
01:39 But the one thing I do know, the Pacers can score,
01:41 and they don't play any defense.
01:43 The Celtics can score.
01:44 We'll see what their defense has.
01:46 But as you pointed out earlier in the show, that 115, I guess,
01:49 around that price point here of the team total for the Celtics,
01:52 that's really what I like the best here.
01:53 But also, I do think the Pacers will be able to score,
01:56 and I like the over 221 here.
01:57 And also, it gets back to the point, Ben, I make so many times.
02:00 Overs for me, earlier in series, unders as the series gets underway.
02:04 For sure.
02:05 We often see the highest total in a series in the opening game,
02:09 and then the market resets itself night by night throughout a playoff series.
02:14 221 and a hook, the highest number we have seen for Indiana
02:17 since the second game of their series against Milwaukee,
02:21 one of the higher numbers for Boston in this postseason.
02:24 Now, I agree with the idea of momentum,
02:27 carrying over from just two days ago inside Madison Square Garden.
02:31 Not a far trip for Indiana from New York to Boston,
02:34 but they remain on the road.
02:36 I think that offense is there.
02:38 Not sure what it means for the side.
02:41 We have seen Indiana go over in eight of their 13 playoff games,
02:47 Boston over in four of the six inside TD Garden,
02:50 where the Celtics have been booked as at least a 13-point home favorite
02:54 in all six of the playoff games in Beantown.
02:58 Now, Indiana on the road, not great.
03:01 In fact, that was one of the stories of the series
03:04 against the New York Knicks a round ago.
03:06 The first team to win on the road was in game seven,
03:09 when the Pacers were victorious in MSG.
03:12 Indiana just 2-5 straight up, away from Indianapolis throughout this postseason.
03:17 3-4 against the spread, booked as a dog in five of the seven road games they played.
03:24 Again, for Boston, 8-2 straight up in this playoff run.
03:27 Seven of the eight victories by at least 13 points.
03:30 Six of those eight, they have covered the number,
03:33 and they have been booked as a favorite of at least a 7.5-point number in all 10 games.
03:40 If you were going to highlight, Donnie, you think we see some points out of the Celtics.
03:43 115 and a hook is their team total.
03:46 Who does the scoring for Boston to push us over that number?
03:50 I really think Tatum's going to have a carpe lanche out there on the court tonight.
03:54 I really think he's going to probably shoot close to 20 times,
03:56 which means he'll get to the free throw line, knock down a couple of 3-point shots.
03:59 He should be able to get over his 29.5.
04:01 But also, when we take a look at these spread,
04:03 you don't anticipate blowouts, Ben, in the NBA when it's like a 2.5, 3-point spread.
04:07 Hey, these guys will play all the way through.
04:09 And sometimes they still play all the way through in 20- to 25-point games,
04:12 right up to the final two minutes.
04:13 But it always has me looking towards those bench directions,
04:15 and I still want to try to take advantage of Al Horford.
04:18 1.5, 3-point shots, it is expensive at -142,
04:21 but I do think he's going to shoot at least 5 3-point shots,
04:23 which means they'll be wide open.
04:25 He can knock down two of those.
04:26 But the guys that always creep into my mind when I think this game might get out of hand
04:30 are the guys like Peyton Pritchard.
04:31 His 3-point prop's 1.5, but you would also take a look at his points prop.
04:34 He's been known to shoot double-digit attempts from the floor.
04:37 When he gets that second half where it's like, hey, we're up 15 to 20 points,
04:40 we're not going to have Tatum out here and Brown wasting minutes
04:43 and getting injured early in a series, he'll get that extended run.
04:46 So it's really the B players for the Celtics that I really want to focus on tonight.
04:50 We'll talk Pacers, props, series outlook, and give you a best bet
04:55 as we round out our show in these three hours on a Tuesday on the Early Lineup.
05:00 Game one tonight of the Eastern Conference Finals in the NBA playoffs inside Boston.
05:06 It's the Celtics and the Pacers with Boston booked as a 10-point home favorite,
05:11 a total currently with an over-under of 221-1/2.
05:15 We looked at Boston and who might provide that offensive production
05:18 against an Indiana team that likes to play up-tempo,
05:21 but maybe not the best on the defensive side of the four.
05:25 If Indiana DRS is going to keep this game within striking distance,
05:29 who are you looking at on the Pacers' side?
05:32 It's got to be Siakam. Siakam's the go-to guy.
05:34 He's going to be able to get buckets on the low block there.
05:36 Not really, I want to say, a true shot blocker.
05:38 Porzingis out there certainly could change shots,
05:40 but he's not going to play.
05:41 Now, Horford is a good defender, but certainly not a shot blocker.
05:44 I think Siakam is the guy that you can lean on.
05:46 If we're looking at secondary options, TJ McConnell is always fun off the bench.
05:49 He's going to play 20-plus minutes and probably shoot close to 10 times in a game.
05:53 You see his assist prop there on that graphic at 4.5.
05:57 I think he gets five assists.
05:58 Why? Because I think we're going to get a lot of scoring tonight from both sides.
06:01 But if you're trying to take a look at one of those B players
06:03 outside of a Siakam or a Halliburton or a Turner, I take a look at Nismith.
06:06 Last three games here, 28 minutes, 31 minutes, and 28 minutes.
06:10 So you know he's going to get close to 30 minutes.
06:12 But also, you hear me talk about this so many times, Ben, ride the hot hand.
06:15 No better performance in game number seven from an efficiency standpoint
06:18 than Nismith, 19 points, 8 from the floor, which included 2 of 2
06:23 from three-point land under those 28 minutes.
06:26 You take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook today for Nismith,
06:28 9.5 points is his prop.
06:30 I think he can get the double digits here.
06:31 So if you're looking for somebody outside of those top guys,
06:33 Nismith for me tonight for Indy.
06:36 I almost lean under Tyrese Halliburton's 18.5 points prop.
06:41 I think J.Y. made a great point about the matchups that we are going to see
06:44 develop in this series.
06:45 And Drew Holliday, the best defender for Boston,
06:48 probably starting off on Tyrese Halliburton,
06:50 who has been slow to start in these series so far throughout both
06:55 to reach this point of the Eastern Conference Finals.
06:58 Miles Turner's three-point prop, 1.5, the over has the heavy juice.
07:02 I would lean that way.
07:04 And I also like the secondary look.
07:06 Not going to go TJ McConnell, although I did bet his prop in game 7.
07:10 Andrew Nembhard has had a sensational first playoff run for Indiana.
07:15 Points prop tonight, 10.5.
07:17 He has been over that number in 10 of the 13 games
07:20 the Pacers have played so far throughout this postseason.
07:24 I do believe he is that secondary option outside of Pascal Siakam,
07:28 outside of Tyrese Halliburton from that guard position.
07:31 Pascal Siakam, by the way, 20-plus in three straight,
07:34 but the points prop is 20 and a hook.
07:38 So, DRS, one final point I just want to make about this series overall.
07:41 We showed you the series odds in the outlook earlier.
07:44 For this series in the total games component, to go 5, it's plus 140.
07:49 The series games over-under is 5.5, and the under has the hefty juice at -185.
07:54 What we are saying here is what we saw in the first two rounds for the Celtics.
07:58 A gentleman's sweep, winning in five games.
08:01 If you think that is the case, and you think it ends in 5,
08:05 more than likely it's going to be Boston winning in 5,
08:07 not Indiana pulling a dramatic upset in winning this series in 5 games.
08:12 Boston in 5 is a better number than plus 140.
08:15 It's plus 155.
08:17 I thought I'd just try to give a little value before game number 1
08:20 gets started tonight inside TD Garden.
08:23 [Music].
08:26 (chimes)