Cermati Saham Pilihan: ICBP, ISAT, Hingga BRIS
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (25/04/2024) dengan Tema Cermati Saham Pilihan: ICBP, ISAT, Hingga BRIS".
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00:00 Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us in the MarketBuzz segment.
00:03 We will continue to discuss with Mr. Arya Santoso, President Director of CSA Institute.
00:07 Earlier, Mr. Arya said that there is no need to worry about where the IHSG is going.
00:11 What's important is that we are smart in selecting the emitters.
00:14 We will first see Mr. Mirza and Mr. Arya,
00:17 what are the recommended emitters from CSA Institute?
00:22 We will summarize in the following graphic data.
00:24 First, Mr. Mirza, there is ICBP with level-level that matches the charmatics as shown on the screen.
00:29 It is recommended by, then there is also Indosat or ISAT.
00:33 From Energy, there is ELSA and also from Banking, there is BRIS.
00:38 Okay, can you explain what is interesting about these emitters,
00:42 so that you can recommend and according to the charmatics,
00:46 even though the IHSG may go up or down?
00:49 How is it, sir? We start one by one.
00:51 Okay, we see that in the CBP, in terms of the sector of the consumer,
00:57 we want consumption to remain,
01:00 even it can be said that there will still be growth this year,
01:04 so it is one of the quite good choices.
01:07 Then in the telecommunications sector, Indosat is also a necessity for people
01:14 who use telecommunications, it will continue and can still grow this year.
01:22 And then for us to pay attention to ELSA, there is a sentiment of an increasing oil price
01:28 and relatively cheap in terms of valuation and is also worth discussing,
01:32 there may be further strengthening from the strengthening that happened yesterday.
01:36 Therefore, we can also pay attention to ELSA.
01:42 Then for banking, we see that with the strength of the ARIAH Bank,
01:47 which is currently quite resilient to the crisis and also maintains net investment,
01:53 so it is quite good to continue the uptrend that is happening.
01:58 Okay, we go to ICBP, Mr. Arya.
02:02 This Indonesian bank has increased its interest to intervene in the value of currency exchanges.
02:08 Maybe the main material is also quite a lot that is imported.
02:12 In your opinion, will it be quite influential or usually the big banks have already done a hedging strategy?
02:21 We notice that Indofood has also gone through various times of crisis in previous periods
02:29 and is quite resilient.
02:31 Then they certainly have a good risk management,
02:36 not to say that the management is not like a traditional business.
02:42 Therefore, we are not worried when there is a risk of an increase in the value of currency exchanges.
02:50 Usually they are already good enough to do the risk management
02:55 and there is still a possibility of growth in consumption and revenue that will occur in the ICBP.
03:01 What is the technical shape of the ICBP, Mr. Arya?
03:05 We notice that in the last two months,
03:10 the trend in terms of minor movements below one and a half months is still decreasing,
03:16 but we see that at the price level of Rp 9,600, there is a rebound to the price level above Rp 10,200.
03:23 There may be a continuation of the strengthening that happened in the ICBP as a technical rebound,
03:29 and there may even be a strengthening that will continue.
03:33 If we compare with the MET from the unilever sector,
03:39 this is a few years ago,
03:42 book the lowest level for the stock throughout history.
03:48 Maybe we can also see the data of my audience,
03:51 data related to the performance of unilever stocks that recorded the lowest level.
03:56 How about comparing between ICBP and unilever itself, Mr. Arya?
04:02 In terms of generating profits, it can be said that it is quite balanced.
04:07 We see that from the valuation side, the current price compared to the earnings is quite balanced.
04:13 We just see that the book value is a bit too high relative to unilever.
04:19 Then, investors in the long run may choose to slowly switch from unilever to other emitters
04:28 because it is quite expensive.
04:32 Unilever may be more interesting when it is already at the Rp 2,000 level.
04:37 Therefore, in the short term, we see that the price is now consolidating in unilever.
04:43 If there is a continuation of the lower than Rp 2,330, there is a possibility of a rebound.
04:51 But in the short term, unilever is also worth considering.
04:54 In the short term, it is worth considering because the decline is quite deep and the lowest level is touched,
05:00 but it is back again even though it is still at the lower level.
05:03 But fundamentally, many investors are not only for the short term, Mr. Arya.
05:09 Moreover, unilever, including in terms of nominal, is also quite high for retail.
05:15 Yes, that's right.
05:18 So, we say that in the current condition, unilever is interesting because the price is lower.
05:27 But there is a possibility that when the decline continues at the Rp 2,000 level,
05:34 it will be more interesting to get a better price than now.
05:38 So, for investors who are interested and quite fanatic about unilever,
05:43 they can buy it, so that when the price declines again, they can get a cheaper price.
05:50 What is interesting about unilever to be able to rebound higher, Mr. Arya?
05:56 From a fundamental point of view, does it support the current situation?
06:00 Actually, from a fundamental point of view, we don't have much appetite for unilever.
06:05 But the branding is very strong, the products are everywhere,
06:09 so that in terms of popularity, it is very well known by the public.
06:13 So, compared to choosing other consumer sectors,
06:16 they are more confident or more confident when buying well-known products.
06:20 So, this is an interesting thing.
06:22 When they see the price is going down, it is considered a very good opportunity to buy.
06:29 But for those who are patient, it seems that they will wait until the desired price target.
06:35 Okay, we leave it for the consumer goods sector.
06:40 We turn to the other recommendations. Why is ISAT not Telkom?
06:44 We see that Telkom is now at a weak point.
06:51 We see that it is quite aggressive since February, from 4,240, then it went down to level 3,010.
06:57 Until now, it is still weak for Telkom.
07:02 So, we notice that ISAT has a more sustainable inflow.
07:08 Therefore, we notice that in the short-term, the last two days before today, there has been an increase.
07:15 Therefore, it is possible that ISAT will continue to have an upside compared to Telkom in the short term.
07:22 Okay, what is the range range that is most attractive from ISAT?
07:26 We notice that ISAT's support level has been on an average for the last three months.
07:34 We see that the support is around 10,725.
07:38 So, approaching that range, it can be purchased, it can buy on weakness.
07:43 There may be a rebound to the level of 11,500 or even 12,000 rebounds for ISAT.
07:51 Okay, that's it for ISAT. Then we continue to the energy.
07:56 There is Elsa, right? From the energy is quite a lot.
07:58 Why Elsa? Is it because Elsa is directly related to the price of oil or what?
08:04 Yes, of course. Usually, because the price of oil is increasing, we see that Elsa is also relatively cheap.
08:11 There is an interesting pattern as well.
08:13 On a weekly basis, we see that there is a double bottom that will also be a breakout at level 425 for Elsa.
08:23 Here it is quite interesting, 422-425.
08:27 If there is a breakout from there, there is a continuation that may happen up to level 440 or 450.
08:34 So Elsa becomes an interesting choice in terms of valuation, it is also quite cheap.
08:38 It can buy on weakness for Elsa.
08:40 Lastly, the banking is starting to release the quarter 1 2024 energy, starting with BCA yesterday,
08:48 which is still quite solid, still quite strong, but the shares you recommended are actually brisk.
08:53 Why is that, Mr. Arya? Not the big caps of the banking?
08:57 Yes, for big caps, it is interesting, but we see that with a fairly aggressive increase in the rebound period,
09:06 the rebound period is quite short, for the last few days, it is indeed the strongest in BCA, Pandiri, it is quite strong.
09:13 Then we also see that in BRI, it is not too strong.
09:19 We notice that in brisk, there is probably a potential to continue from the uptrend.
09:26 So we see the attention to brisk here also when consolidating at level 2400 to 2800,
09:36 this can be an opportunity when there is a weakness, it can be used to rebound again, continue the uptrend.
09:42 Okay, how about the sentiment of acquisition plan from an entity to brisk, Mr. Arya, although it has not been confirmed?
09:55 Yes, that's probably interesting too, so one sentiment that we can also notice is that when there is a corporate action,
10:03 there is probably more attention from the public to a certain limit.
10:09 We also pay attention to the earnings season, financial reports that have been released a lot,
10:15 there is also the RUPS, the RUPS example, which can be observed to take advantage of this short-term sentiment for your investment.
10:24 Okay, so you see there is a chance for quarter 1 energy from brisk, it's still okay, better than the same period in 2023?
10:31 Yes, about energy in quarter 1, there is probably a lot of emittance, there is also not too much aggressive growth.
10:41 We see that the growth that may occur after the first half,
10:47 that is, maybe in quarter 2 or entering quarter 3 aggressively.
10:52 So while in quarter 1 or quarter 2, there is probably not too much aggressive growth in general for all emittance.
11:01 Because we do see the finalization of the end of the kill price, then the unprice will be more stable after the sale.
11:10 How much range from brisk and more to the short-term or medium-term?
11:15 Yes, for the short term, when there is a weakening back to the price level in the average investment for 1 week,
11:25 about Rp2,600 that we can take advantage of, then the strengthening will probably continue back to the Rp2,750 level, even up to Rp2,800 for brisk.
11:37 Okay, that's it for the recommendation of the Pomyarsa selection, we are back with the first session of the opening of trading on Thursday.
11:44 Will the opportunity follow the Asian exchange that is mostly weakening?
11:47 Or will the IHS continue to strengthen Pomyarsa's breakthrough business?
11:50 Stay with us in the market bus segment.
11:53 Thank you Pomyarsa for coming back with us in the market bus segment.
11:56 And now the opening of the first trading session has started, Pomyarsa.
12:01 And we can also look at the following RTI data, where the index of the joint stock market is open to follow the Asian exchange,
12:07 although the weakening is not too deep, Pomyarsa.
12:09 As I saw earlier, it is still around 0.3%, with Pomyarsa's stock that is a top gainer and top loser based on value
12:18 are the following stocks that are still experiencing a change.
12:23 There is PTIS, Pomyarsa, which is almost 20%, there is Nasi or Wahana Intimakmur, which is up 20%,
12:30 CGAS, Pomyarsa, Citeranusantara Gemilang, which is up 13%, then there is Koka, LP, LI, Unilever, Pomyarsa.
12:40 Entering the top gainers with a strength of almost 6% after this week, it was able to reach the lowest level.
12:46 At the moment, a lot of purchases are made and entering the top gainers in the 7th order.
12:52 Pomyarsa's top losers are PYFA, PTMP, AREA, PRDA, HILN, TINZ, DOOH, Pomyarsa, and several other stocks.
13:03 That's Pomyarsa.
13:05 Update from the opening of the trade this morning, where the index of the joint stock market is moving in the negative territory.
13:13 Okay, let's continue Pomyarsa's discussion with Mr. Arya.
13:18 Yes.
13:20 According to Mr. Arya's projection, Unilever, which has fallen, has a short-term opportunity to experience a strengthening,
13:26 and we have seen the increase of more than 5%.
13:29 Mr. Arya, tips, your investment in the middle of our currency exchange value, which has been intervened by Bank Indonesia,
13:37 is still at 16,170 this morning, and we see that the problem is because the US dollar is strengthening.
13:46 Even Japan has reached the lowest level since 1990.
13:50 How far can this be something we should anticipate, Mr. Arya?
13:55 And what should be done by investors today?
13:58 Yes, if the currency can be said, we will be more competitive for export.
14:04 So for export goods, it is beneficial for the maintenance that does foreign trade and then gets the US dollar.
14:11 But for our general stability, especially the imported goods, it will be a burden for the US dollar.
14:20 And we can say that the trade ties with Japan are quite tight.
14:25 We have a lot of cooperation with Japan.
14:28 Japan's weakness is also beneficial for us when exporting stocks from Japan, we get cheaper, the impression is cheaper.
14:37 But we see that inflation or weakness in currency is certainly not too good in general, in general terms for a country.
14:45 Therefore, Indonesia also hopes that there will be a re-strengthening if the US dollar can be at the level of 16,000 or in the month of 16,000, it will be more comfortable.
14:56 So the increase in the US dollar is actually normal, but if it happens too fast, it will certainly surprise business owners.
15:03 We hope Indonesia can be quite stable in the future and also not too worried about investors.
15:09 In the long run, Indonesia still has a good prospect and will increase again in the long run.
15:17 Okay, thank you for the tips, sharing information.
15:21 Today, Mr. Ria, I'm always for you. See you again, sir.
15:25 Thank you, Lisa.
15:27 Thank you.
15:29 [MUSIC PLAYING]