Under Erik Ten Hag, Casemiro has become Manchester United's MVP. But most fans have missed the real reason why...
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00:00 Man United had in their midfield. Now I know what you're thinking, "Casemiro, he's been a revelation for Manchester United."
00:04 Everybody knows this. They were a team that had virtually no steel, no solidity, no heart in the centre of midfield. A lot of talent, a lot of
00:11 ability, etc. But they would lose midfield battles in so many games.
00:15 That was the area that teams throughout the league were convinced they could get at Man United in and now they can't. Now you don't lose
00:22 that battle. And the reason for that, everybody knows, is because Casemiro is an absolute bastard.
00:28 Not in like the Pepe sense or anything, don't get me wrong.
00:30 He's just really difficult to play against. He wins the ball back, he's determined, he's good on the ball.
00:35 He's the exact opposite kind of player you want to be up against in that area of the pitch. His defensive
00:40 contribution to Manchester United cannot be understated. Everybody already knows this. Now not to get you too excited,
00:45 but in just a few moments, I'm going to tell you why that is not the reason he is so badly missed. Why his defensive contribution
00:51 is amazing, yes, but its absence is not why Man United occasionally struggle to control games.
00:56 But we will quickly look at it first because I just want you to understand how good it is.
00:59 All right, so the headline stat for Casemiro at Manchester United is that per 90 minutes,
01:04 he makes somewhere between five and six major defensive contributions. Tackles or
01:10 interceptions. Winning the ball back in a good area, he does that between five and six times a game.
01:14 I think he's exactly 5.5 per game across the entire season. And you might be thinking, that's not an enormous
01:19 number for somebody in that position. But just to put it into context, the next nearest player on the team is Lissandra Martinez.
01:25 He does it just over three times per game and then below that everyone's sort of like ones or two.
01:30 So Casemiro roughly makes double the defensive contribution any other player in a Man United shirt in 90 minutes.
01:36 The really crazy stat is that he actually leads the team as well for aerial duels won in all competitions.
01:42 Like not the centre backs who have to deal with crosses and corners, etc, etc.
01:45 Casemiro wins the ball in the air more than any other player playing for Man United. Dalot, Shaw, Martinez, Varane,
01:51 they've all won the ball back something like 30 odd times in the air this season.
01:54 Casemiro has nearly done it 40 times. It might seem like a bit of an anomalous stat,
01:57 but it proves there's something in his positioning, something in his determination that is happening on purpose.
02:01 So undeniably you're gonna miss that kind of contribution from any player regardless of the opposition.
02:07 But and again, no disrespect to Fulham,
02:08 it was Fulham at Old Trafford and Man United managed to line up pretty much as close to full strength as they were going to
02:13 in this competition. Like we just look at the 11 they had out last night,
02:16 you'd probably say Man United's strongest team is mostly there. Like De Gea is there,
02:19 it's kind of a coin toss at the minute between Dalot and Wan-Bissaka. Shaw's undeniably the first choice left back.
02:25 Varane and Martinez, they've pretty much cemented themselves in that position. Then at the front, the positions seemingly change all the time,
02:31 but Sancho's come back in at the number 10. He's done really well there. Veg Horst,
02:34 yes, he has played around the place, but he's been leading the line. Rashford's there, Fernandes is there.
02:38 It's only really in the centre midfield that you've got some kind of problem. Now, yes, Maguire had come in for Varane,
02:44 but the reason Man United weren't controlling the game wasn't because they were having loads and loads of chances created against them,
02:49 they were actually defending pretty well. This part of the pitch here couldn't get anything going because at full strength,
02:54 that is Christian Eriksen and that is Casemiro, whereas last night,
02:58 that was Scott McTominay and that was Sibitza. Genuinely relatively good players. Sibitza got a very important goal,
03:04 he's been pretty good since he came in. Scott McTominay gets way too much hate for what he's actually done for that club,
03:09 but crucially, they're just not those two. Now, the thing about Eriksen is that people constantly shout that name in the street at me,
03:16 but the other thing about Christian Eriksen is he was brought in to add so much quality on the ball to this team,
03:20 to get it in any kind of position and then make that situation more dangerous. That's what he does.
03:25 Now, as a result, per 90 minutes, Christian Eriksen leads that Man United team for progressive passes.
03:30 And, yep, some of you may be asking, what is a progressive pass, Adam? How do you have an unprogressive pass?
03:36 Well, I'll explain. So, you know how some teams are just full of like little passing nerds and they get like 99% pass completion
03:42 and they do 400 passes a game, but it's all just duh, duh, duh, duh, duh, nothing really interesting happens with it.
03:47 Well, progressive passes is a stat they came up with to kind of measure the importance and the quality and the general thrust of the pass.
03:54 It basically means any pass that's not in your defensive third and progresses the ball around about 10 yards closer to the opposition goal.
04:03 Basically, the kind of pass you always want your players to make. Now, it's not a perfect metric,
04:07 like a 50-yarder into the channel will count exactly the same as like a beautiful little 15-yarder that puts someone into goal and they score from it.
04:14 But nonetheless, when someone's on the ball, you want them to go forward, you want them to advance the situation.
04:19 That's what a progressive pass is. And Christian Eriksen, per 90 minutes, makes more of those for Man United than any other player.
04:25 But the thing is, Christian Eriksen's been injured for ages and he's still got like at least another month out at the time of me recording this video.
04:31 So who is Man United's next most progressive passer of the ball? Which of the front four here do you think compares to Eriksen?
04:39 Oh, no, I've done a little tricksy. It's none of these four players at all.
04:44 The next most progressive passer of the ball for Man United is Casemiro.
04:48 Yeah, more than Bruno Fernandes, more than Marcus Rashford, more than Jadon Sancho, more than anybody else.
04:54 Casemiro gets on the ball in this part of the pitch and thinks, how can I progress this forward?
05:00 How can I force the opposition back? And that is how you control games of football.
05:04 Now, full disclosure here, the numbers are marginal between Fernandes and Casemiro and do actually vary depending on where you go and look for them.
05:11 But everywhere, it's fairly consistent that Eriksen leads the team with about six and a half progressive passes per game.
05:16 And then Fernandes and Casemiro, they're both around the six mark.
05:19 Now, I know what you're thinking. That could just mean he's pumping it long into the channel.
05:22 He's hitting this area here and this area here.
05:25 And while it is useful, it's not really making anything happen.
05:28 Is he getting into these sort of positions and playing those kind of passes or is he getting somebody in behind here, etc.?
05:33 Is he doing stuff that actually leads to attempts on goal?
05:36 And yes, yes, he is.
05:38 Second only to Bruno Fernandes, who I will tell you in a minute, is incredibly far ahead in the statistic.
05:43 Casemiro is second in this team for passes that lead directly to an attempt on goal.
05:48 It's actually quite a funny stat.
05:49 It's gone like Shaw, Rashford and Sancho. They're all sort of like low 30s, early 40s.
05:54 And Casemiro, he's got like 45 of these passes across the entire season.
05:58 And then Bruno Fernandes, anyone? Any guesses?
06:00 Has over 100. So yeah, he's quite good.
06:03 But Adam, I'm still not convinced anybody can just pass it to a teammate who then just blares it into Rosette.
06:09 Is there any measure of the quality of these chances he's helping to create?
06:12 And yes, yes, there is.
06:14 And again, Fernandes is way, way, way out ahead for this particular stat.
06:18 But second in this Manchester United team for expected assists,
06:22 the number which measures the likelihood these passes will lead directly to a goal is Casemiro.
06:28 So just to really, really hammer this point home here, why Casemiro has become so important to Man United.
06:32 Yes, you take that man out with a pitch and all of a sudden your defensive cover goes away.
06:37 You lose the majority of your tackles and interceptions every single game.
06:41 Yes, that's bad. You don't want that to happen.
06:43 But you are also losing the second or third most creative player in your entire team
06:49 for taking the ball from any location on the pitch and putting it in a more advantageous position.
06:55 That is why you don't control games when you don't have him in a team.
06:59 I don't know how to put this any more plainly.
07:01 Like Casemiro is an absolute monster in this area of the pitch,
07:04 but he also makes things happen in the Kenny Loggins area, in the danger zone.
07:09 And this, of course, does create problems all of its own.
07:11 No straight red cards at Real Madrid ever, and now two in his first season at Man United.
07:16 And why could that be?
07:17 Well, because when you're asking someone to take on so much work,
07:20 the cracks will eventually begin to show.
07:23 Without Eriksen in that side, he's having to do so much more of the work with progressing the ball,
07:27 as well as winning it back.
07:28 And those two red cards he's had, it's not really his fault.
07:31 Well, I mean, obviously it was his fault.
07:33 He did make those challenges.
07:34 He could have just not done that.
07:35 I think he could talk his way out of that.
07:37 I think I could talk my way out of that.
07:38 So, and the thing is with Eriksen out for a while now,
07:40 and the fixtures continuing to pile up and pile up and pile up,
07:42 it is a lot to be asking of one player.
07:46 But ask him, they're almost certainly going to have to do regardless.
07:49 Or I think, anyway, I don't know, it might be absolutely off my head.
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