Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 In the early morning in the third biggest city in Iran, Isfahan, the sound of explosions
00:06 rang out in the streets. In the immediate aftermath, Iranian state news agencies reporting
00:12 three explosions near the airport and the 8th Shikari army base.
00:16 Within an hour, the Iranian spokesperson for space agency said, "several drones have been successfully shot down,
00:23 no injuries reported."
00:25 So what's that the Israeli strike back for an Iranian bombardment of drones, cruise missiles, ballistic ones last weekend,
00:32 which Iran said in turn was their response to Israel striking their consulate in Syria.
00:38 Here's Tom Canetti with what we know so far.
00:40 The conflict in the Middle East escalates.
00:46 However, after suspected strikes on Iran by Israel, Tehran has downplayed their importance.
00:54 This operation showed the Islamic Republic's authority and the ability of our defensive systems,
01:00 our people's will of steel and dedication to the revolution.
01:04 Iran's state media reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan.
01:08 Israel had warned it would hit back after Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones almost a week ago,
01:14 in retaliation for a strike that leveled Iran's consular annex in Syria.
01:21 The sound that was heard this morning in Isfahan was not an explosion.
01:25 It was the firing of the rockets of the powerful air defense systems at an object in the air,
01:31 and there was no damage from that.
01:33 In Israel, locals are worried about an all-out war breaking out, but at the same time some believe diplomacy is futile.
01:50 US President Joe Biden has promised ironclad support for Israel,
01:53 but also urged it to think carefully and strategically before a response that could trigger a wider war.
02:00 As Tom reports, ironclad support from Israel again. Joe Biden reiterating.
02:06 Let's go to Jerusalem. Let's bring in Iris Maclear, our correspondent there.
02:09 Iris, interesting, no official comment from Israel. I guess we get used to that when it comes to operations overseas.
02:16 But a lot of attention on one word on social media comment of the right-wing security minister.
02:24 That's right. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the only person really commenting in public a one-word tweet.
02:31 He used the slang word for lame or weak, and that's his response,
02:37 let's not forget, to a government that he's part of, to a cabinet that he's part of.
02:42 And perhaps in other times that would actually be a sacking offence.
02:47 But Benjamin Netanyahu wants this government to stay the course.
02:51 It's the only chance he has to stay in power. And so Itamar Ben-Gvir can do that.
02:58 Even Iran responded to Ben-Gvir's tweet dismissing him.
03:02 And I think what's interesting is there's no official response, but we have heard unofficial comments.
03:08 And these unofficial comments from military analysts and so forth, off the record,
03:12 seem to suggest that this wasn't a retaliation. It was a warning.
03:16 It was a message to Iran that while Iran had tried to fire 300 missiles and drones into Israel,
03:25 99 percent of them had failed to connect.
03:27 And when Israel makes a small attempt, a direct attempt, a surgical strike, then it does connect.
03:35 So that's the warning implicit in today's attack, if it was an attack by Israel,
03:41 that we have to say since we don't have a confirmation from here.
03:44 And I have been hearing and reading some Israeli analysts, not military ones,
03:48 suggesting that perhaps Benjamin Netanyahu has taken on board all the diplomatic effort
03:54 to to make him think again, or perhaps not to strike.
03:58 And that's why there was this surgical strike, because he's looking ahead
04:02 to building an anti-Iran coalition, no matter what the right wing of his coalition government may say.
04:08 You've also been keeping an eye on Iranian state TV and how Tehran is dealing with this today.
04:14 What's coming back from their side?
04:16 That's right. Everybody in Jerusalem, I think, keeping a very focused,
04:22 laser focus on the reaction from Iran, certainly in the first few hours.
04:27 And what we saw was this.
04:29 We heard an Iranian official telling the Reuters news agency
04:33 that there was no need for an immediate response.
04:35 You could say that's just words, but they did also reopen their airspace
04:40 a few hours after it had closed and planes have been flying in and out of Iran today.
04:46 So I think those two things together made Israeli
04:49 politicians in Israel breathe a sigh of relief.
04:53 And we have been I've been watching Iranian television.
04:55 And what we've seen is a definite downplaying some of the things that were
05:00 in our report earlier before you crossed to me.
05:03 And also a sense that they want calm scenes,
05:08 people going about their business as usual, and a sense that Israel
05:13 has given them with this surgical response some wiggle room, wriggle room
05:18 to take a step back and perhaps that's what they are doing.
05:21 But one thing, Gavin, it may be over for now or this de-escalation may have begun.
05:28 But the paradigm has changed because there are now has now been for the first time
05:32 these open attacks between these enemies.
05:34 And I think things are different from now on.
05:37 Iris, stay with us for the moment.
05:39 I want to bring in Samuel Rahmani from RUSI,
05:42 the Royal United Services Institute, based in London.
05:46 Good to have you on the programme, Samuel.
05:49 First of all, just listening to Iris, what is your take on what's going on right now?
05:54 It was inevitable that the Israelis were going to launch an attack
05:59 on Iranian territory, even though many of the Arab countries like Saudi Arabia,
06:04 Qatar, UAE were trying to de-escalate.
06:07 And also there were some warnings from Olaf Scholz's side not to go ahead with it.
06:11 And the significance of the attack area of Isfahan is quite notable
06:15 because Isfahan is obviously also a centre of some nuclear research facilities
06:20 that may employ up to 3000 Iranians.
06:22 There's also reports of attacks on Tabriz,
06:24 where the Shahab-2 and Shahab-3 missiles were produced.
06:28 So this is very symbolically resonant as a warning shot, I think, at Iran
06:32 not to attempt another attack like they did last weekend.
06:35 Interesting, when we've had Iris picking up on comments from Itamar Ben-Gavir
06:40 on the far right of the government, saying this was, quote,
06:42 "weak" and getting response from the Iranians on that.
06:45 So you get a sense of if this is not the starter of what is to come,
06:50 but if this was the strike, it appears to be comparatively small.
06:54 We've got to look at other things.
06:55 You've touched upon what's in and around the facility, nuclear situation.
06:59 They also have aircraft manufacturing sites there.
07:01 Plus, should we read anything into the fact that it is the supreme leader's
07:05 birthday today, the birthday of Ayatollah Khamenei?
07:08 Well, I think obviously that symbolism is quite significant, too.
07:12 Again, I think this is a symbolically resonant location.
07:14 But I think that, yeah, Ben-Gavir's criticism obviously reflects
07:19 a strong view on the Israeli far right that this was not going far enough.
07:23 But Netanyahu has a delicate game to play.
07:25 He was telling Western leaders that he's moving ahead
07:28 with a much more aggressive offensive on Rafa in Gaza,
07:31 even as there's been reports that Annalena Baerbock and him had a spat
07:35 that got leaked to the public about the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
07:38 Netanyahu has also reassured Western leaders at the same time
07:41 that he's not going to escalate the situation against Iran too far.
07:45 So to get buy-in on Rafa and to get people off his back on that,
07:49 he's probably being a little more cautious than the Iranian side.
07:52 And maybe he doesn't have to worry about the criticism from Ben-Gavir.
07:55 His political situation has actually improved quite a lot
07:58 since where it was after October 7th, as the latest opinion polls are showing
08:02 that he's gaining ground, even on Benny Gantz, if an election were to be held.
08:05 So maybe Ben-Gavir's pressure is going to have less resonance now
08:09 than it may have had five or six months ago.
08:12 That's very interesting.
08:12 It's the idea that suddenly there's almost a breather for Benjamin Netanyahu
08:16 after constant criticism, conditional support from allies, the UK.
08:21 We know you mentioned the Germans and the defence minister,
08:24 but also David Cameron, the foreign minister from the UK,
08:27 going to meet Benjamin Netanyahu this week, again,
08:30 issuing an urging caution from the leader.
08:34 What do you think on the other side of that?
08:36 You talk about a potentially better, if that's the right word,
08:40 more comfortable domestic position, given the pressure that
08:43 the Israeli prime minister is under.
08:44 But flip reverse, let's go to Iran.
08:46 Is the country in a better position domestically from this back and forth?
08:51 Well, I mean, obviously, I think the Iranians would have faced
08:54 a domestic reaction to do something after the attack
08:57 on the IRGC facilities in Syria at that scale.
09:01 And I think they also got a green light that if this war would escalate
09:04 to a large extent, they might get some kind of assistance from Russia
09:07 or some kind of assistance from others.
09:10 Though, obviously, in Iran, there's some people who claim that the Russians
09:13 could have done more to stop the Israelis in Syria, and they didn't do that.
09:16 So Iran probably felt that this retaliation that they did last weekend
09:20 was a necessary step and one that was relatively low risk.
09:23 The big question is, what does Iran do now?
09:25 I mean, Isfahan being targeted is targeting a potential conventional facility.
09:30 That's not an IRGC facility.
09:32 That is something that is a relatively new development,
09:36 at least in terms of official Israeli action.
09:38 So it's really Iran's ball now to decide whether they want to retaliate or not.
09:42 My guess is that they're probably going to continue to heat up the front in Lebanon.
09:47 We saw an attack coming from the Hezbollah side
09:49 that injured about 14 Israeli soldiers, the Israelis striking back.
09:53 And that might be their retaliation rather than another strike like they did
09:57 last time, which fired a lot of drones and missiles in Israel,
09:59 but very few results militarily.
10:02 Iris, to bring you back in on Samuel's points,
10:04 talking about, you know, what will Iran do next,
10:08 this downplaying that they've been doing today, this is seems to be
10:11 as much about reactions as the strikes themselves.
10:18 Yes, because because if it wasn't about reactions, you know,
10:22 we could be in a huge escalation right now.
10:25 So, yes, the reactions are important.
10:27 I have heard an Israeli politician
10:31 who was formerly in the Mossad is now in the opposition.
10:34 And he was saying that Israel has a war in Gaza to fight.
10:38 It has an escalation, a serious escalation on its northern border.
10:42 It still has tens of thousands of citizens
10:46 displaced inside its borders.
10:48 You know, Iran is for later, he was saying.
10:51 If you've got three things to do or three fronts to fight on,
10:55 you may not win on any of them.
10:56 Better to concentrate on what is urgent, you know, do that and get on with it.
11:02 And I've heard another analyst saying that the real problem for Israel
11:05 is that it still has 130 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip,
11:11 an unknown number of them now dead.
11:13 But that is really its priority is to return its citizens.
11:16 And the fact that one of the credit rating agencies
11:19 just downgraded Israel's credit rating.
11:21 That's very important, too.
11:23 So those two things are really important.
11:25 And getting this off the table was more was what Israel had to focus on.
11:29 Yeah, it's a really good point.
11:30 Iris, thank you.
11:31 Iris McLeod, correspondent in Jerusalem and Samuel Monromani from Rusi in London.
11:36 Thank you both.