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00:00 Well, let's cross then to talk to senior lecturer of politics and international relations at the University of Bristol, Filippo Dionigi.
00:07 Thanks very much for joining us today on the programme.
00:09 So we've got these threats then of new sanctions, right, of course, as we're still waiting to see how Israel may or may not respond to the attacks on it at the weekend.
00:18 Yes, that is correct.
00:21 We have seen developments on the diplomatic track of this process.
00:26 We are seeing that Israel's allies in the West, the European Union and the US, have decided to go ahead with new sanctions against Iran in response to last weekend attack on Israel.
00:41 This is because Israel's allies, the US and the European Union, have sided with Israel, but have also asked Israel not to escalate further the conflict,
00:55 the consequences of which are entirely unpredictable and risk of creating total havoc in the region.
01:02 Therefore, they are trying to push for a more diplomatic and sanction based method to constrain the possibility of Iran pursuing its bellicose stance against Israel
01:13 and therefore trying to de-escalate and proceed on a more diplomatic basis and sanction based basis against Iran.
01:22 Yeah, de-escalation and a lot of people are saying as well, aren't they, that the last thing that Iran actually wants in its current state is a full scale confrontation with Israel as well?
01:30 I think that is correct.
01:32 Iran has been saying that repeatedly, that it's not interested in a major regional escalation.
01:38 It is true it has kept tensions high all across the region, in fact, through its own allies and the so-called members of the Axis of Resistance.
01:49 But it is also true that its response last weekend was a direct response to the 1st of April attack that Iran suffered in its diplomatic premises in Damascus.
02:01 And also it is true that the Saturday night attack that Iran has launched against Israel was mostly a performatory attack, in fact, was a demonstrative attack.
02:14 It was it created a lot of anxiety, no doubts, but it has also not created major repercussions on the ground.
02:21 So it was a short strength, but nothing that is as seriously escalated more than what it was necessary, at least the nature of the conflict.
02:32 Israel, you know, as President Biden apparently said, can take the win and doesn't need necessarily to respond to this and further escalate the conflict.
02:41 There are perhaps still some reprogressions. I'm talking about Iran's proxies also being attacked.
02:47 There was another senior Hezbollah commander killed overnight amid new attacks.
02:52 I mean, could Hezbollah itself, do you think, find itself much more in Israel's crossfires as it tries to hit back in a way maybe not provoking Iran outright?
03:02 I think that is a possibility.
03:04 We saw that yesterday, as you were saying a minute ago.
03:08 The reality, however, is that that would be a continuation of the type of conflict that has been going on already since October 8, the day after Hamas attacks against Israel.
03:19 And therefore, that wouldn't be necessarily an escalatory measure, but more a continuation of pretty much the same business that we saw so far.
03:28 That doesn't mean that is a good thing, of course.
03:31 It's obviously, you know, the best outcome of all of this is the hostilities to end as soon as possible.
03:37 But it would be perhaps a signal of the fact that the confrontation would not escalate to an interstate, all out war between Israel and Iran, the consequences of which, again, are entirely unpredictable.
03:49 Good to have you with us on the programme today.
03:51 Thanks very much for joining us.
03:53 My pleasure.
03:53 Philip Ohler, Dionegi from the University of Bristol.
03:55 Thank you.
03:55 [BLANK_AUDIO]