Arsenal haven't won at the Etihad Stadium since 2015. Since then, a lot has changed at both clubs.
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00:00 [Music]
00:05 Now, the thing of utmost importance for any team that's playing Manchester City, not just Arsenal,
00:09 is the team's off-the-ball shape and how they try and nullify Manchester City when Manchester City have the ball.
00:15 And Arsenal actually did a fantastic job of this at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season, which we'll look at in a minute.
00:21 But Arsenal's defensive stats, I mean, they've got the best defence in the league,
00:24 so it's a brilliant foundation for them to build this off-the-ball shape around.
00:28 Here's some of the defensive stats from October when Arsenal won 1-0 against Manchester City at the Emirates Stadium.
00:33 Now, these are the tackling stats in particular, which paint a picture of how Arsenal really won the ball when they were off of it.
00:40 There was 20 tackles made and 12 were won in total, but if you break up where those tackles were committed on the pitch,
00:45 it paints a picture as to Arsenal's off-the-ball shape.
00:48 There was five tackles made in their defensive third, nine in the middle of the park,
00:53 and then six in Manchester City's own attacking third, which meant that they were pressing very high
00:58 and trying to suffocate City when they had the ball in their back line.
01:01 So, how did they do this?
01:03 On the ball in this game, City kind of employed a 2-3-5 formation, you could say,
01:07 with Kyle Walker and Josco Guardiola really, really hugging the width and pushing up as far as they possibly could when in possession of the ball.
01:15 And to counteract that, Arsenal kind of shaped up in a narrow 4-4-2 formation, you might say,
01:19 hugging the middle of the pitch and tucking those wingers, Martinelli and Sakharov wide, inside to suffocate the middle of the park
01:26 and force City to utilise these wide positions.
01:29 And the primary reason that Arsenal deployed this system was to try and nullify Manchester City in the middle of the park
01:34 and when their eights received the ball in those kind of pockets of space the likes of Phil Foden in this game,
01:39 but also at the Etihad, of course, it will be Kevin De Bruyne at two this time.
01:43 And what actually worked really well for Arsenal in this game was a very high-risk, high-reward individual strategy
01:48 where any time Phil Foden would pick up the ball, for instance, in that pocket of space in the eight,
01:52 Ben White would come out from the right-back position and try and nick the ball off him from behind him
01:56 as quickly as possible for that turnover of possession.
01:59 So they did not... the primary target for Arsenal in this game was to not let City's number eights have any breathing time on the ball,
02:06 any time to turn, any time to pick at or pass.
02:08 They're going to have to do that again at the Etihad, especially now Kevin De Bruyne is fit.
02:12 Of course, he wasn't in this game at the Emirates.
02:14 They're going to have to do this again, otherwise City will just kill them.
02:18 Of course, though, this does come with a trade-off, and that trade-off will be City having a bit of an advantage
02:22 and a bit more space on those wide positions.
02:24 This likely means that you'll see Rodri from the sixth position pinging those balls over to the likes of Jack Grealish on the left-hand side
02:30 and probably Kyle Walker, who will be pushed up, hugging the width on the right.
02:34 "Heh heh heh heh, this sucks, man."
02:36 [Music]
02:39 So, if Arsenal successfully pack the middle of the park, this will likely force Rodri to spread those balls out to Kyle Walker on the right,
02:46 stroke Bernardo Silva, and then Jack Grealish, now he's fit, probably on the left-hand side,
02:50 which then in return should force City to have to play quite direct to Erling Haaland,
02:55 which against most teams will sound like a terrifying prospect.
02:58 But when you've got Gabriel and Saliba, it's a battle that you could come out on top of.
03:04 These two are without a doubt the best centre-back pairing in the league this season, that have consistently played alongside each other.
03:09 The stats are there to back it, of course, they've conceded the least goals in the league,
03:12 but these are these two head-to-head against each other, and the stats are so similar, really.
03:17 The aerial duels won there, there's only eight in it, and there's only 0.15% of a difference in terms of the aerial duel success.
03:24 The only real stats with any disparity are the ground duels won and the blocks, of which Gabriel has more,
03:29 and this could maybe paint the picture that Saliba is a bit more of a Rolls Royce, a bit more Van Dyke-esque,
03:34 where he sort of has the pace to be able to stand off and keep a striker at arm's length, really, and not have to commit as much as Gabriel.
03:40 But they're both phenomenal centre-backs and they complement each other so well,
03:44 but it's really that aerial duels won stat there that means that they will be able to have a bloody good go at pocketing Mr. Erling Haaland.
03:52 And Gabriel and Saliba, I think, are the real reason that Arsenal have reason to be confident in this game,
03:57 of not losing it at least, because these are their defensive stats this season as a collective Arsenal.
04:02 24 goals conceded, which is the best in the league, 11 clean sheets, which is also the best in the league,
04:08 and their xG against is just 0.71, which is actually the best in the league out of any team as well.
04:14 So they're basically just first for every stat, and it's because of them with a little bit of Declan Rice, of course, sprinkled in as well.
04:19 But Saliba and Gabriel have been so good this season that really it's time now to step up to the plate and stop Manchester City,
04:26 which Chelsea have done, Tottenham have done, Crystal Palace have done at the Etihad. It is doable for Arsenal, absolutely.
04:32 So how are Arsenal going to get the ball in the onion bag, so to speak?
04:35 Well, as a Manchester City fan, the answer's probably not Gabriel Jesus.
04:39 I watched that man for five years and he can't finish. I'm sorry, I'm not even going to do any analysis.
04:44 The guy can't finish, so forget him.
04:46 Honestly, the timing of Gabriel Jesus' runs at Manchester City were that off the pace that he was receiving through balls from Steven Ireland.
04:54 Now, I can't believe I'm actually about to say this, but if you look at the background here, there should be a sign around here that says Adam loves Havertz, right?
05:03 And some background behind that, basically one of my lovely colleagues, Mr Mark White, is an Arsenal fan.
05:09 And we and him have been having a bit of back and forth for a few months now about how good a footballer Kai Havertz is.
05:15 And he said at times, yeah, I think he gives something to Arsenal, but I'm not sure what it is.
05:21 And then I kind of went, well, I don't think he gives anything to Arsenal. I think he's rubbish.
05:26 But then eventually I was kind of proved wrong because the stats show and what I've seen with my eyes in the last few weeks shows that he is actually giving quite a lot to Arsenal.
05:36 So I think the answer to goals could be Mr Kai Havertz.
05:40 Good point. Yeah. First sensible thing you've said all day. Yeah.
05:44 And of course, as we know, he's kind of not in a like for like way, but he's replaced Granit Xhaka in this Arsenal side.
05:49 Granit Xhaka was, of course, a bit more of a box to box midfielder, but Kai Havertz really is a bit more of a late arriver into the box and a bit of a creative link man.
05:57 You could maybe liken him to more of a number eight, maybe.
06:00 But when compared to Martin Oerdegaard here, of course, Martin Oerdegaard is in the blue.
06:04 You can see that they both kind of provide similar things to Arsenal.
06:07 They're both creative players. They both pull strings.
06:10 But if you actually look at the stats that Havertz is winning on, you've got his expected goals per 90, his goals per 90 and his shots per 90,
06:17 which is only a marginal win, but still nonetheless.
06:20 And then most interestingly for me as well, he's actually winning on XG chain per 90,
06:24 which is the total XG of every possession the players involved in per 90 minutes,
06:29 which basically means that when Havertz has had the ball, Arsenal scored slightly more goals.
06:33 So, yeah, it's very, very hard to have an agenda against this guy anymore, or criticise him.
06:38 Not that I ever did. Just didn't think he was very good and I've been made to look like an idiot.
06:42 So, yeah, Havertz needs to be ready when Arsenal get the ball in these wide positions to make that late run,
06:47 ghosting behind Rodri, find that pocket of space in the box and hope that the delivery is good enough for Havertz to convert.
06:53 And I think that is the way that Arsenal are most likely to find the back of the net in transition when they, you know,
06:58 when they do, hopefully with that 4-4-2 that I've suggested, win the ball in the middle of the park.
07:02 Anyway, as you well know, on the Friday show, when I talk about another team, it's not just minutes of me rambling.
07:08 We like to hear from someone else who could be a potential expert on a certain side or just football in general as well.
07:13 And this week, it's someone who's an expert on football in general.
07:17 It's a good friend of mine, a man called Omir, who you may well know from Twitter.
07:21 He is an analyst and just generally someone with very good ball knowledge,
07:25 to the point where he can retweet an old tweet from three years ago that everyone laughed at him for,
07:29 and he's now been proven right. He's that kind of guy. So, nonetheless, take it away, Omir.
07:34 You know, I think Arsenal's, well, Arsenal's out-of-possession players are interesting because, one, like City,
07:41 they have the ball most of the game. So, in terms of like true out-of-possession sitting deep,
07:45 it's a very rare thing that Arsenal have had to do this season.
07:51 I think what we can look to really that is really impressive from Arsenal this season is how they've suffocated size
07:56 and sort of counter-pressed them in a way that sort of uses the players off the ball.
08:03 In a really aggressive manner. So, what we've seen in past seasons from City in a similar manner is
08:11 we've had like a really good press in front three and that press has been backed up by a really energetic eight.
08:17 De Bruyne, for example, and then you have like a front three of Bernardo Silva, let's say Raheem Sterling,
08:24 Gabriel Jesus, players of that ilk who are really sort of aggressive and front-footed.
08:29 And we saw it in our big Champions League games, if you think back to the games against Real Madrid, for example.
08:35 You know, a lot of our good chances and a lot of our sustained pressure would come from that like really high pressure,
08:41 really aggressive pressing and then backed up again by that midfield.
08:45 I think what Arsenal have done this season, and it's a fair credit to Arteta and the board on that side,
08:51 is they've brought in a team where they've kind of created this team that's really physical
08:57 and able to cover grass like ridiculously well. So, you've got that massive Declan Rice move.
09:02 But the way he sort of like pounces on players and covers grass, like it's ridiculous.
09:08 Like even if you bypass the initial press, which is really impressive from sort of the likes of Odegaard,
09:14 Gabriel Jesus, Saka, etc. You've got like a really tall, hard-working duo in Havertz,
09:22 if he's just playing that midfield role. And then Rice, who Declan Rice for me is,
09:27 I've said this before he joined Arsenal, he's the best defensive midfielder out of possession.
09:34 And we saw that in West Ham, you know, the way that they used to play off the ball, play deep.
09:40 And they had that success that they had last year, in large part based on his ability to shuttle horizontally and shut out attacks.
09:49 So, when you're playing against Arsenal, they've got this sort of twofold, you know, defensive strength in,
09:55 one, that high pressure of the field. And then two, if they do lose it, in that really compact shape,
10:01 you've got the likes of Gabriel, Havertz, Rice, Saliba, etc. The likes of those players who are really tall,
10:10 really physical and able to shut out space and minimise the gaps as much as possible.
10:15 So, for City, you'll be trying to find little areas where you can almost get Arsenal out of position and capitalise on 1v1s,
10:23 for example, because otherwise, Arsenal are a team that will catch up to you out of possession
10:28 and try and suffocate you when they have the ball via their defensive shape.
10:33 Well, having said that, then going on to the goal threat, let's say Arsenal do transition, they hit City on the break.
10:38 Where's their goal threat going to come from? Because in the video that I've talked about,
10:41 I have said it's going to come from Kai Havertz, the stats have shown it recently.
10:45 Could it be someone else or how do Arsenal best utilise Kai Havertz in a game like this?
10:50 I think one of the reasons why they would have brought Kai Havertz in, in the first place,
10:54 is the fact that they've basically had a team that's really good at playing short and keeping the ball
11:01 and sustaining pressure against, you know, most of, let's say, the bottom 15 teams in the league.
11:08 Against the top teams who have the ability to kind of keep the ball against you and pen you in a little bit.
11:15 We've seen it from City as well, the ability to go on, you know, not hoof it up, but almost play with,
11:23 you know, a conscious mind, but with the ability to go long and find your strikers.
11:28 So Havertz is a player who, unfortunately, I hate to bring it up, but the Champions League final,
11:33 when he obviously scored against us for Chelsea, but the way he attacked on the break there,
11:40 you know, really impressive.
11:42 And in the big games, although he's a player who's got his own sort of criticism and stick in the past,
11:49 he's able to step up and with his profile, I think he's someone who, like, injuries permitting,
11:56 if they can field someone in midfield instead of him, they'll probably play him up top in a game
12:01 against Manchester City and decide to go long off him.
12:04 We've seen Odegaard almost play a little bit deeper now, but we might see Odegaard almost play a little bit off.
12:12 Off Havertz up top and then whoever the left winger is,
12:17 hearing like reports that Martinelli might be out.
12:19 If it's Gabriel Jesus, put on that side, running in and off him.
12:24 So Havertz is sort of the out baller.
12:25 He's sort of the biggest threat, particularly with some of City's defensive injuries.
12:29 If you play long to him, he holds it up and he releases someone else.
12:34 And then you've got Saku who's decent in transition, Odegaard can run off him.
12:38 And then if Gabriel Jesus plays that rotation between Havertz and Jesus,
12:42 it's going to be something that City will have to keep an eye on,
12:45 particularly with their midfield sometimes being stretched with Rodri kind of having this box to box role,
12:50 but without that kind of Gundogan figure to cover in at parts of the season.
12:55 If I'm going to give you a prediction, I would go.
13:00 I'll go to. We're going to concede.
13:03 I'll go. I'll go to one.
13:05 Two, one, two, one. Well, look, Arsenal fans, you're all watching this video, of course,
13:09 and this is an Arsenal prop video.
13:11 So I will obviously say two on Arsenal.
13:15 So anyway, thank you very much for joining us.
13:18 That was an insight. And yeah, we'll see what the result is on the weekend.
13:22 Thank you very much.
13:23 Thank you very much, Omir. Now, I've just realised that I've actually recorded this the day before I've spoke to Omir.
13:28 So I have no idea what you even said, mate.
13:31 I should probably do this the other way round next week.
13:34 Anyway, guys, yes, I hope you enjoyed the video.
13:37 Arsenal City, bloody difficult one to call, but by next week,
13:41 we might have a clearer picture of where the title race lies.
13:44 Don't forget to subscribe, guys. Have a lovely long weekend as well this time round with the bank holidays as well.
13:50 Enjoy the football. I've been Adam Monk.
13:52 Adamonk, take care, I'll see you very, very soon, goodbye!