Aidan McGivern presents the next 10 days weather - Met Office
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00:00 Hello, welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. A look at the long weekend for the Easter
00:06 break and beyond into the first week of April. What a surprise for you and that is that it's
00:12 not going to be a complete washout this Easter weekend. There will be some warm sunshine,
00:18 albeit not throughout the entire four days. Of course, we are looking at some unsettled
00:23 weather as well and certainly in the lead up to Easter, the jet stream is sitting to
00:28 the south of the UK. That generally means it's cool and it's unsettled across the UK
00:34 and you can see how that reflects in the pressure pattern. Low pressure to the west or southwest
00:39 as we go into Wednesday night and that low is bringing some colder weather in from the
00:45 west and southwest and as that cold weather sits in place, it's going to mix with a band
00:52 of rain that's moving up from the continent, this occluded front which will bring a spell
00:57 of wet weather overnight into the start of Thursday. This is 2am on Thursday and you
01:01 can see that spell of rain across southern and central parts. Some heavy rain in places
01:07 could cause some issues that wet weather first thing but also as it mixes with the colder
01:11 air, you could see some sleet and wet snow in a few spots, most likely over higher parts
01:16 of Wales and then later into the Midlands and Northern England before quite quickly
01:21 it warms up. So, one or two issues perhaps with snow but mostly this is wet snow falling
01:26 over higher parts of Wales and it very quickly disappears through the morning as milder air
01:31 returns from the southwest. But that milder air from the southwest is going to be accompanied
01:38 by some very unsettled conditions. Low pressure close to the southwest as you can see, driving
01:42 spells of rain and showers. These showers across Wales and the southwest, very lively,
01:47 hail and thunder of possibility and accompanied by an increasingly strong wind. That wind
01:52 reaching gusts of 50 to 60 perhaps more miles per hour along the south coast could cause
01:58 some issues through Thursday, so a yellow wind warning in force. And the rain also could
02:02 cause some issues across Northern Ireland, compounding the issues of course with the
02:08 rain that we saw throughout the last few days and further back of course some very saturated
02:14 conditions there for eastern parts of Northern Ireland, in particular the Antrim Hills where
02:18 another 30mm of rain through Thursday could cause localised flooding. So, an unsettled
02:23 afternoon for many places but it is going to be turning milder through the day, 11 to
02:27 12 Celsius in the south, still on the chilly side there across the north and the east of
02:31 Scotland, albeit with less rain compared with further south across the country. There will
02:37 be some spells of wet weather later on Thursday into the east and the north of Scotland as
02:41 the low pressure responsible moves into the North Sea. Further showers follow into the
02:45 south as well but a gap there perhaps across central parts as we begin Friday, some early
02:51 sunshine with a fresh feel. The cloud quickly builds through the day and by the afternoon
02:57 on Good Friday, well it's looking like a fairly bright picture out there but there will be
03:02 a number of showers still remaining. It's really a day of sunny spells and showers.
03:07 The showers where they do occur will rattle through quickly on the wind but they'll be
03:11 lively where they occur with the chance of some thunder and also the chance of some gusty
03:17 winds. Temperatures of 13 or 14 Celsius in the south will feel a bit warmer compared
03:21 with Wednesday and Thursday further north, likewise a little bit milder, 9 or 10 degrees.
03:27 And then by the time we get to Saturday, well here's the slightly drier weather that I mentioned
03:33 at the start of the forecast. Still some showers around, particularly towards the west but
03:38 towards the east actually some places will escape with a dry day on Saturday, some decent
03:43 sunny spells and where we see that sunshine and with lighter winds it will feel quite
03:48 pleasant I suspect, the sun gaining strength at this time of year. This is the temperature
03:53 difference by Saturday compared with the time of recording, Wednesday the 27th March and
03:58 as you can see a large part of the map is warmer on Saturday compared with Wednesday,
04:03 significantly warmer in places, for example more than 6 degrees warmer the far north of
04:08 Scotland and for some of these central and eastern parts of England. So a temperature
04:14 trend that is upward slanting as we go into the weekend and also some sunny spells to
04:22 be enjoyed, especially later Saturday and into the first part of Easter Day. But later
04:28 on Easter Day there is a little system that's emerging on the continent that could just
04:33 edge a spell of rain into the east of England and track across the country. I say could
04:38 because there's a lot of uncertainty about this developing system, it's to do with how
04:43 the jet stream is shaped across the continent and temperature differences that result in
04:49 this formation of this low pressure for example. But there are significant differences in the
04:56 various computer models, so the Met Office model has that spell of rain in the east of
05:02 England whilst other models don't have it at all. For example the European model has
05:07 showery rain focused towards the west and the American model has a bit of rain towards
05:11 the south east but mostly the wetter weather is towards the west and south west on Easter
05:17 Day. So still a lot of uncertainty, at the moment we slightly favour what's going on
05:24 in this middle panel here with showery rain more likely towards the west. Either way Easter
05:30 Day is likely to start dry but through the day there's this increased chance of some
05:36 rain or showers developing and the trend is for it to turn increasingly unsettled by the
05:42 time we get to Easter Monday. We've still got the jet stream to the south, we've still
05:46 got areas of low pressure here and there and those areas of low pressure are likely to
05:50 drift close to the UK at times for the start of next week to bring further spells of rain.
05:56 Meanwhile the jet stream starts off very amplified across the Atlantic but this branch of the
06:03 jet stream cuts off into its own circulation which allows another branch of the jet stream
06:08 to whizz across the Atlantic, pick up areas of low pressure and send them on a south shifted
06:13 track towards the UK. So for the start of next week increasingly unsettled as the jet
06:18 stream sends further lows in towards the country with spells of rain most likely towards the
06:23 south and the east, drier towards the north although an increasing easterly wind for Scotland
06:29 perhaps turning cloudy with some showers in the east. This is how things are looking for
06:33 Tuesday and into Wednesday then we've got that south shifted jet stream, we've got the
06:37 low pressure systems moving in from the west and southwest. The wettest weather once again
06:42 towards the south and the west, drier towards the north and the northeast but it's possible
06:49 that many areas will see rain and showers throughout next week. That trend towards areas
06:54 of low pressure returning from the Atlantic on a south shifted jet stream is reflected
06:59 by this bar chart which shows this increased chance through the first week of April of
07:05 this colour. This colour represents a weather pattern which is associated with south shifted
07:12 low pressure and that generally looks like this. So this is the most likely weather pattern
07:18 for later next week, low pressure to the west or southwest of the country, spells of rain
07:23 or showers moving in from the southwest, temperatures not far from average although the possibility
07:29 of some colder conditions at times in the far north and the driest spells most likely
07:36 towards the north, the wettest weather most likely towards the south. If you think you've
07:41 heard all of that before it's because it's the same kind of weather pattern we've seen
07:44 so much of during recent weeks and months. Hopefully it will change at some point in
07:48 April but for now staying unsettled.
07:50 [BLANK_AUDIO]