Cycling Weekly's Sam Gupta & Joe Baker look at 2024 and cast their predictions on the new road bike tech we may see hit the market. There's everything from wireless brakes, heap electronic groupsets and new glucose monitoring systems that could change the face of cycling forever. Let us know what you think could be released in 2024.
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00:00 Some of the tech that we're really excited for in 2024. There is a lot to dive into,
00:05 so I want to start with something pretty contentious because there's a lot of meat on the
00:09 bone, but wireless brakes. Talk to me Joe, why do you think that they could be something, one,
00:14 that we should be excited for, and two, why they'd be any good? Yeah, well as you say,
00:20 pretty contentious issue. I think there's a lot of people would worry when you start to talk about
00:25 wireless brakes. There are a few things that they'd be really good for. I think the most obvious one
00:30 is, at least on SRAM's group sets, we are one hose away from totally cableless or wireless
00:36 operation of the bike, which is pretty amazing. Why would that be good for the man on the street?
00:43 Why would that be good for normal riders? First of all, you've got the fact that you could
00:48 completely get rid of internal cable routing, which any bike mechanic would tell you is probably
00:53 still the bane of their life to an extent. There's the other thing as well with the safety of
00:57 headsets and safety of steerers. At the moment, a lot of steerer tube fractures are actually due
01:03 to point loading due to having split rings. Instead of having a full ring around your headset, thanks
01:10 to hydraulic hoses going through the frame, you have to have that split so there's room for them.
01:15 That can cause point loading and therefore fracture, which is, depending on who you speak to,
01:19 actually quite an issue, at least in bike design. It's a weak spot, so being able to eradicate that
01:24 weak spot would make them stronger. Yes, absolutely. I think the other thing is
01:29 general maintenance. It would just make so much sense to be able to easily swap bars without the
01:34 stupidly high labor costs that we see to do that. The bike shop I used to work in, somebody came in
01:40 and they wanted their stem lowered by, I think it was eight millimeters. It required two brake
01:44 bleeds, complete recabling of the bike. I think the labor cost genuinely was £170. That was not
01:52 overcharged. That was simply just how long it would take the bike shop to do that job. Actually,
01:56 just to be able to go back to the old days, if you will, but with modern technology, would be
02:01 a massive gain for consumer and bike shops. Yes. I guess when you start to think about it,
02:06 it's not actually too far removed from the TRP hydro calipers because we've seen similar things
02:13 where you have the hydraulic reservoir right next to where the pistons are and having this
02:18 all-encompassing caliper. The only thing that I can think of in that situation is obviously you've
02:22 got a cable-actuated system there. How much more bulky is it then going to be to have a motor that
02:28 then actuates it plus a battery to run the whole caliper? You're then ending up with a pretty,
02:33 potentially significantly sized unit right down at the end of your fork. How bulky is that going
02:39 to be? For sure. I think that depends on how far into the development cycle you're talking about
02:43 and I think this is the big caveat for this one. I think we'll see prototypes next year.
02:48 I think this is a few years of actually seeing this on our bikes. Firstly, it's going to come
02:52 to e-bikes first. It was the same with Di2, electronic shifting. It makes sense that something
02:57 that, as you say, is bound to be slightly more bulky will first end up on something where weight
03:02 is less of a factor. I would argue that in a few years' time, we could definitely see working models
03:06 that actually don't really detriment aerodynamics too much and also get rid of the cables and save
03:11 all the benefits that I've talked about. I guess one of the bigger issues though,
03:14 forgetting about the size and weight of any potential calipers that are wireless,
03:18 should we trust the technology? I mean, not having that hard link between your brake lever and your
03:24 brake, that's our big mental hurdle. Certainly, that's going to be a lot of people's biggest
03:28 worry and I think rightly so. It's really not natural to not trust a mechanical system. It's
03:33 what we've been using for so long. However, if you look to other parts of the automotive industry,
03:38 public transport, we rely on electrical systems absolutely everywhere. Actually,
03:42 if there's a failsafe built into the bike as well, I don't actually see a reason that we
03:46 shouldn't trust them. Yes, that's really interesting. I think with tech like this,
03:52 you're absolutely right. We would see it on an e-bike first because in that world,
03:57 you're not as concerned with size or weight. It's more about whether it works well or not.
04:00 I think I've got more reservations about whether or not it would be even seen on a bicycle first,
04:07 as opposed to seeing it in the automotive world in some form. I think with something like this,
04:13 it would just need to go through so many rounds of R&D before it gets to the point where the tech is
04:20 actually flawless and you've built up that trust in the public arena. Moving over from e-bikes to
04:25 the world of road cycling, we're going to talk a little bit about electronic group sets. That's it
04:30 because we think that over the next 12, 24 months, we could potentially see more cheap electronic
04:37 group sets. We think that SRAM could be leading the way in that market purely because last year,
04:43 we did see them release SRAM Apex AXS, which is their fourth tier. That sits below SRAM Force
04:50 and SRAM Rival. It's whether or not they could actually bring out a fifth-tier AXS group set.
04:56 We did speak to a spokesperson at SRAM who said that they expect the adoption of electronic group
05:00 sets to continue across more price points. They didn't want to give a timescale, unfortunately,
05:04 which isn't all too surprising. I think it's certainly something that could be coming,
05:09 as you say, in the next 12, 24 months. Absolutely. I think it would be really
05:13 interesting to see how other competitors in the market react to that because I think from
05:18 a consumer's point of view, that buzzword of electronic gears, it makes it seem like anything
05:25 mechanical just really isn't good enough. As we know, Shimano is going to be coming out with Q's
05:32 in the next couple of years. Before we see Q's Di2, that is clearly going to be so far down the
05:38 line. You potentially have to look towards other rivals that might be bringing out these budget
05:45 electronic group sets. I think you're absolutely right. I think, in fairness, Shimano, it's fair
05:49 to say it's got some work to do. They're playing catch-up big time.
05:53 They're playing catch-up, as you say. I think the recent release of the GRX 12-speed in mechanical,
05:58 Shimano said that 50% of our customers still buy mechanical shifting. I would argue that a lot of
06:04 that is down to price in the first place. I think that's the question for the masses of
06:09 riders that are out there that are on mechanical group sets. You can look at, say, Tiagra and below.
06:14 What's it going to mean for the prices of those bikes? Currently, there's so much of that product
06:21 out in the market that you can have something that is slightly affordable at the moment. If we did
06:28 start to see either a fifth-tier AXS group set or something from Shimano land on stock bikes,
06:35 is that just going to mean that the base level of bikes gets pushed up even higher?
06:40 That's my biggest concern is, yes, what's it going to do to the cost of bikes?
06:46 Adoption of more electronic group sets, I believe, will probably inflate the price more
06:50 to an extent. The only thing that would stop that is if actually a budget competitor,
06:55 like we saw El Two made quite a storm in the social media space early this year,
06:59 if a brand like that was able to severely undercut SRAM or Shimano and then was adopted by a big
07:05 major bike brand. That's the key. I think the number of people that go out and buy a group
07:09 set and then put it on their bike is such a small percentage of the overall market. I'd be amazed if
07:15 it was even 1% that it has to be adopted by one of the really big bike brands for it to actually be
07:21 a meaningful move for the industry. Then it would be a budget play. Would the brands be able to still
07:30 sell a bike with electronic gears for less than £1,000, less than $1,000? I don't know.
07:38 It's certainly a push, but I think arguably a pretty big power move for a big bike brand to
07:42 choose to partner with one of these more budget group set manufacturers and be able to undercut
07:46 the market. I agree. 2024 is an Olympic year, but what is that going to mean for track cycling and
07:53 track cycling tech? What's it going to mean for maybe that tech being adopted on the road? What
07:58 are you predicting? As you say, it's an Olympic year. Whenever we get an Olympics, normally we
08:03 get a huge amount of new developments in tech. The biggest one really that we've seen on a few
08:08 different bikes actually at the World Championships last year in August is split seatposts. We're not
08:13 talking about the canyon style seatpost that's designed to give some comfort and deflection.
08:19 We're actually talking about having two separate seatposts. Side by side, creating a Dyson Airblade
08:26 seatpost. Exactly. That is pretty much the best analogy for these. The idea is that you can
08:30 accelerate air between a rider's legs and that can help to fill the low pressure area behind the
08:36 rider's legs, behind the lower back. It's the same concept as the Trek Madone Isoflow.
08:43 Correct. Above, a bit higher up. Exactly. Really similar to that. The biggest hurdle here I think
08:48 is the aesthetics. They do look pretty strange. For the road bike market, I think that's more of
08:55 an Achilles than potentially on the track and in time trialing. Really, I think there's no real
09:00 reason why we won't start to see them creep into the wider road world. I think that's one thing,
09:07 is that with the aesthetics, people get used to aesthetics over time. People tend to hate things
09:12 when things are new, but then they get used to them and they accept them and then they want them.
09:16 I don't necessarily see that as being the biggest downside in the world. I think what would be
09:21 interesting is what's it going to do from a saddle comfort point of view. Is that going to mean that
09:25 you actually lose compliance in the seat post? Because obviously, there's been a lot of R&D
09:30 recently put into making sure that seat posts do work really well for smoothing out the ride as
09:36 much as possible. I can see that potentially being a downside. It seems to make sense. It's
09:43 whether or not any bike manufacturers would try to build it into their bikes, or whether or not
09:48 it would be an upgrade that people buy from a third-party brand like Doreno or someone else
09:53 like that. From the thrilling world of seat posts to some new fitness tech we may well see in 2024.
09:58 Indeed. This is something that actually could be pretty revolutionary within both the pro racing
10:05 game, but also at grassroots level. Super Sapiens is a company that currently exists and they make
10:11 glucose monitoring systems. It's a little patch that sticks on the back of your arm,
10:15 and there's a little needle which then obtains the data from your blood work. However, currently,
10:21 they're completely banned from pro cycling. What's exciting though is that there's a company
10:25 in Wales called Aethon Technology who's developing a system where they can obtain the same data,
10:32 but without needing the needle prick in your arm. So, don't need to have the risk of infections,
10:37 and it also means that it would be virtually impossible to ban. The tech is currently in
10:43 development, but from our point of view, if they develop that and they make it really successful
10:50 and they make it work, I don't think there's a reason why they then wouldn't just sell that tech
10:54 to say Garmin or Wahoo or Whoop. I think all they could just license out to all these parties. It
11:01 would be pretty revolutionary, I think, and I think it would be a really good thing for the
11:05 majority of cyclists. For the majority of cyclists, I hold a very different view, to be honest. I
11:12 think I would genuinely go as far as to say that if this was widely adopted in the pro ranks,
11:17 it could genuinely, I think, ruin bike racing. Okay, so why do you think that is?
11:21 Couple of reasons. What it comes down to is that bike racing at the minute is absolutely thrilling
11:29 due to the fact that so few variables are controlled. A classics race, for example,
11:34 there's 200 riders on the start line. Any one of those riders could be on a great day,
11:38 take out the domestiques and communication in the team as to who feels good. On any one day,
11:43 there's at least 50 riders that could win that race. The fact that we don't know who's going to
11:49 win is exactly why cycling is so exciting to watch. A lot of that comes down to fueling.
11:54 Look at the Tour de France this year, for example. The reason behind Taddy Pagacar cracking,
11:59 as he explained, was due to not being able to take on enough carbohydrate. If you're able to
12:03 completely control a rider's glucose levels, for me, I think that could really just take away an
12:08 element of volatility from racing. I think, though, that development and that progression
12:15 is inevitable. I think it feels like what you're arguing for is almost a stunting of development
12:23 and a stunting of innovation for the sake of good racing. Arguably, you can see in F1, when teams
12:30 reach a certain level, they really are-- It can make racing boring because essentially, they've
12:37 cracked the code. I think that it is inevitable and maybe there would be more variables being
12:45 pulled out in different areas of pro racing. Remember, that's only a very small part of
12:50 cycling because the bulk of cyclists are amateurs. I think if amateurs have a better understanding of
12:57 what their body's doing, how to better utilize their body, and it's even if you're not racing,
13:02 but if you're anyone who wants to go out on an ultra ride and you need to monitor how many
13:08 carbs you're getting into your system, that's really critical information. It could be that
13:13 the tech is developed. We all know what the UCI is like. If they want to ban something,
13:18 they will ban it. Absolutely, they will, but the problem is even if they can ban that in racing,
13:24 they can't ban someone from wearing smartwatch when they're training. I think we might see a
13:29 situation where people learn lots in training, but they can't use it in racing.
13:32 Just going back to the point of view from the wider adoption of that technology,
13:37 I am more for that because I can think of many times, particularly when I was a junior,
13:41 that I've bonked on rides. It's led me to, in some cases, getting ill. Even early last year,
13:47 I did the Tracker 360, 360 kilometers. At every single feed station, I was trying to
13:53 just hack down carbohydrates, literally plain rice, energy bars every half an hour. Actually,
13:59 being able to keep a track on that for ultra riding would have, to be honest, made it safer,
14:03 actually. Yes, that's really interesting. I think there's a lot of merit to the technology,
14:07 and if it does become more widely available, which I think having a system which doesn't need to have
14:14 a needle in your arm, then I think that does make the most sense. I think, one, the most exciting
14:20 thing is that this tech is right there. We could see it this year, and that would be pretty
14:25 significant for the sport. Now, finally, there's one more thing that we're quite excited for,
14:30 but it often feels like we talk about quite often, that being new gearing systems. You
14:36 have a pretty strong belief that actually we could be on the verge of something fairly big here?
14:40 Yes, it's something that we've talked about for quite a few years now, but I genuinely think we
14:44 really are on the cusp of seeing a lot more development in the world of drivetrains,
14:48 and that is going away from derailleur gears. Okay, so what bikes can we see this on,
14:53 and is there actually a benefit to the end user? Yes, once again, I think e-bikes are going to see
14:59 this technology first. A great example, which isn't quite production-ready yet, is Driven
15:03 Technology's Orbit Drive system, which is a planetary gearbox. That won an innovation award
15:09 last year at Eurobike. When it comes to the end user, I think really it's something not necessarily
15:15 for us cyclists, but more something for the wider audience. Something like that Driven Technology's
15:20 Orbit Drive system would actually allow you to just jump on an e-bike, choose a cadence, say
15:26 80 rpm, 60 rpm, everything else can be done for you. Total automatic shifting, you would just have
15:32 an ECU unit that chooses how much input comes from the motor, how much from your legs, and from that
15:37 how fast you go. Again, all for one cadence. The other thing is maintenance. We once again look to
15:42 the automotive industry, gearbox oil for example does not need to be changed very often. If something
15:47 is properly engineered in a sealed system, there's no reason why you wouldn't have to service your
15:52 gearbox for say 10,000 miles, which for a lot of people is probably getting on the life cycle of a
15:57 bike. Absolutely, could not agree more. I think it would be really interesting to see what it does for,
16:01 I'll say it again, the cost of bikes. However, I think the benefits here could potentially be
16:07 really outweighing the potential cost. Once again, going back to why next year, I think the big
16:15 thing here is e-micromobility is massively on the rise. It has been for a few years now, but it's
16:19 getting to the point where actually we're starting to see some bigger players come into the e-bike
16:24 market. This year I think we've seen four or five different collaborations with the automotive
16:28 industry and automotive brands. Once again, that funding is potentially what could just tip us over
16:34 the edge of seeing something like this come to production. Joe, out of everything we've spoken
16:39 about today, what would be your one innovation or trend that you're most excited for above all else?
16:44 Despite my slander earlier in the video, I think it would have to be the watch technology. As I say,
16:49 I don't think it'd be a great thing for bike racing, but for the wider audience, I think it's
16:52 really exciting. How about you, Sam? I think for me, I think the concept of cheap electronic gears
16:59 and that being really widespread, I do like the idea of. Like I said earlier, my biggest concern
17:05 really is what it will do to the cost of more entry-level bikes. If that can be kept in check,
17:10 I think that'll be really, really good in the long term. Let us know down below,
17:16 out of everything we've spoken about today, what would you be most excited to see in 2024?
17:21 If you enjoyed the video, then please do drop it a like, subscribe to the channel for more content,
17:24 and we will see you again very soon. [00:09:00] [END OF AUDIO]