八点最热报 | 北方大学经济系教授林福源接受八点最热报访问时指出，马币过去10年其实贬值百分之40多，超过了1998年亚洲金融风暴时期的39%，而拉曼大学经济系主任钟志强则表示，1令吉兑美元跌破4.9，也不是让人意外的事。令吉跌不停，是不是到了无药可救的地步？（主播：蔡心慧）
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00:05 The dollar's value has been plummeting.
00:09 According to a report from last week, the dollar fell to 4.8 dollars last week.
00:14 It almost broke the record of the 1998 Asian financial storm.
00:18 Professor Lin Fuyan, a professor at the University of Northern China, said in an interview with the 8.4 Daily News that
00:22 the dollar has plummeted more than 40% in the past 10 years,
00:27 which is 39% more than in the 1998 Asian financial storm.
00:32 Zhong Zhicheng, the director of the Department of Economics at Laman University, also said that
00:35 the dollar's value has not been surprising.
00:40 Is the dollar's value falling to a point where it is incurable?
00:44 Is the government helpless in the face of internal and external problems?
00:49 Is the dollar's value only able to sit still and wait for the environment to improve?
00:54 Lin Fuyan pointed out that since the 1MDB case broke out,
00:58 the dollar has been falling for 10 years in a row.
01:02 In addition to international external factors,
01:05 there are also a series of political turmoil in China,
01:08 corruption of political figures, and a series of negative events,
01:12 which has completely lost the market's confidence in the dollar.
01:15 To regain the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in the dollar,
01:18 the government must make people see its reform determination
01:22 like a gambler cutting paper to bet.
01:24 Professor Zhong Zhicheng, a professor at Laman University, also said that
01:27 unless the government announces good news in the near future,
01:30 or external factors such as the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war
01:33 are stimulated,
01:36 it will be difficult to recover the lost ground in the short term.
01:40 He believes that at least in the first half of 2024,
01:43 the 1MDB will fluctuate between 4.7 and 5 USD,
01:47 and may even fall below 4.9 USD.
01:51 Is it really hard to save the 1MDB from being seen by the eyes of the people?
01:56 Finance analyst Cai Zhaoyuan believes that
01:58 although our country cannot change the international environment,
02:01 the government can solve the structural problems such as
02:04 not having strong foreign exchange reserves,
02:07 the self-budget case, and trade declining through planned reforms,
02:11 and improve the business environment of our country in the long run
02:14 to regain investors' confidence.
02:16 Cai Zhaoyuan and Lin Fuyan both believe that
02:18 the Anhua government has actually launched a lot of economic plans since the government was in power,
02:22 but it must ensure that these plans will not be a paper talk,
02:26 but can be executed in place.
02:28 At this critical moment, political determination is very important.
02:33 If you look back at the statistics,
02:37 in 1998, it was a few months,
02:39 and the depreciation was about 39%.
02:42 In fact, our zero-level depreciation started in 2014.
02:46 From the beginning of 1MDB to now,
02:48 it has been about 10 years.
02:49 We have depreciated about 40%,
02:52 which is more than 39% of the financial crisis.
02:55 I don't expect it to fall below 4.9%.
02:57 5.0% may take a few more weeks or months.
03:01 But 4.9%, I don't think it will be very different.
03:04 The economic scholar predicts that if the external environment does not change,
03:09 and the government does not make good news,
03:10 then the zero-level depreciation will not only be difficult to recover in the short term,
03:13 but even fall below the 4.9% mark will not be surprising.
03:16 Professor Lin Fuyan, Professor of Economics, Peking University,
03:18 Professor Zhong Zhiqiang and financial analyst Cai Zhaoyuan
03:21 all believe that the depreciation has been severely underestimated.
03:25 The big fall in depreciation is due to the situation.
03:27 Partly because our country is facing a new deficit,
03:30 the market is not optimistic about the depreciation and sells,
03:32 further exacerbating the depreciation depreciation situation.
03:35 The depreciation has indeed been underestimated.
03:38 The main thing is that in the recent trend,
03:41 the first is because of our domestic economic growth rate,
03:44 which is one of the factors.
03:46 The second is the large amount of short-term investment.
03:49 You can see that our stock market is also a problem.
03:53 Although the first two months of 2024 are much better than 2023,
03:58 now our Bursa Index is about 1500,
04:01 before it was about 1400 to 1500.
04:04 So far, our economy is basically quite strong.
04:09 Our stock market is quite active.
04:12 So I think the short-term is the short-term movement, not the long-term.
04:16 The biggest factor in the depreciation of our currency,
04:19 especially in recent years,
04:21 is that investors, including our citizens,
04:24 have lost confidence in the currency.
04:26 They already have an expectation in their minds
04:28 that the currency will continue to change.
04:30 And that expectation has been realized in the past few years.
04:33 So our economy has become a low-level equilibrium.
04:39 An equilibrium is a place where everyone is equal.
04:42 But that place is not good.
04:43 But everyone thinks this is the right thing to do.
04:45 So many investors say that the currency should be lowered.
04:49 It's almost like this.
04:50 So we have to break this so-called vicious cycle.
04:54 Although the depreciation of the currency is mainly due to the large environment,
04:56 the government is unable to control it.
04:58 But Lin Fuyan emphasized that the government has no choice
05:00 but to restore the situation of the currency's confidence in bankruptcy.
05:03 Especially the Fed is expected to drop its interest rate in June.
05:05 Investors will also turn from avoidance to risk pursuit.
05:08 The government should take advantage of this external help
05:10 to show the gambler the determination to cut off his fingers
05:12 and implement the reform blueprint.
05:14 Cai Zhaoyuan also pointed out that the government has many economic plans.
05:17 The point is how to implement it in place
05:19 to solve the structural problems of our country's economy in the long run.
05:22 After the government introduced the long-term economy,
05:26 there was a new industrial blueprint.
05:30 It outlines the direction of the industrialization of Malaysia.
05:34 It also cooperates with the 12th Myanmar Plan to review various measures.
05:39 We also have a new energy transition route.
05:43 It's not just a detailed list of goals we want to achieve.
05:47 In fact, the action plan is quite clear in terms of the entire action strategy.
05:54 So now, what we need to do most is how to implement it in place.
05:59 The government should take advantage of the long-term economy.
06:04 It should implement the energy transition route and the new industrial blueprint.
06:09 Only by doing so can we solve the structural problems of Malaysia.
06:13 Only then can we solve the problem of the depreciation of the currency.
06:17 We are like a man with a lot of money.
06:20 Now you have to tell people to believe you.
06:22 So you have to make a big determination to make people believe you.
06:27 For example, a gambler who wants to quit gambling.
06:30 But he has tried to quit gambling hundreds of times.
06:33 He can't quit gambling.
06:34 But now he is showing you his fingers.
06:36 If he really shows his fingers to you, you will believe him.
06:39 So the government really needs to make a big determination.
06:42 Because we have to cooperate with external factors.
06:45 External factors are the depreciation of the US dollar.
06:48 I don't think the US will go down so much.
06:50 So it will go down from a very high interest rate to a high interest rate.
06:52 But there will be a return on this reduction.
06:54 So how do we make use of this return?
06:56 The Chinese government needs to show a big determination.
07:00 Actually, our government has always had a good blueprint for development.
07:05 But the information is very poor.
07:07 So how do you know what to do?
07:09 What should you do?
07:10 You have to tell people.
07:11 When the former Sudanese President Ibrahim said this at the opening of the Congress on Monday,
07:15 he was disappointed with the situation of the country's debt rise.
07:18 He supported the government to introduce targeted subsidies
07:21 and sent out a 2023 Public Finance and Financial Responsibility Plan
07:24 to control government financial spending.
07:26 Cai Zhaoyuan and Zhong Zhiqiang both agree with the original opinion
07:29 that the government must reduce national debt
07:31 and spend money on the "sword" to build a healthier financial environment.
07:35 National debt rise, including our continued deficit budget,
07:40 plus our not so strong foreign exchange reserve,
07:44 these are all situations that make us unable to resist the decline in foreign exchange exchange rates.
07:52 So we should reduce our so-called "national debt".
07:57 The Chinese government has proposed a Financial Responsibility Act in Congress
08:02 to prevent high-debt.
08:05 The limit of our debt can not exceed the percentage of our GDP.
08:12 These are all more effective to control our national debt.
08:18 In the long run, we still have to spend every cent on the "sword".
08:26 Reducing corruption and waste is also an effective way to reduce our national debt.
08:32 How do you use your debt after you borrow money?
08:35 If you are developing in a business that is profitable in terms of economic development,
08:41 you will have a high confidence in the people, economy and investors.
08:45 You have high debt now, but after three, four or five years,
08:49 your project will be successful and your return will definitely support your so-called debt level.
08:55 So when you show this to the people or investors,
08:59 their companies will have confidence and they will invest more.
09:03 Zhen's team analyzed that the state-owned enterprises should sell in a way to increase interest rates
09:10 and increase the value of coins in the short term.
09:12 Finance analyst Cai Zhaoyuan said that the side effect of increasing interest rates is quite big.
09:17 In addition to the people, the cost of living such as housing loans will be increased,
09:21 and the cost of lending to businessmen will also be increased.
09:24 He believes that the most practical thing is for the government to improve the domestic economy
09:29 and create a better business environment.
09:31 And everyone should also look at the current trend with a positive attitude,
09:37 to avoid further shock by the psychological factors of the market.
09:40 Thank you.
09:41 [Music]
09:45 [Silence]