Our panel discuss the current global situation after Chadielle Fayad asked: We speak of, and worry about WW3, but has a cold WW3 already begun? Panellists: Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull joins writer and social analyst Rebecca Huntley, along with British historian and academic Peter Frankopan, Ukraine Democracy Initiative co-founder Olga Oleinikova and Sydney University social policy professor Jioji Ravulo. This episode was broadcast on Monday February 26, 2024
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00:00 We speak of and worry about World War III,
00:04 but has a cold World War III already begun?
00:08 Big question. Olga?
00:11 OK, so I'm going first. Yeah, that's a very big one.
00:14 We've been talking about the Third World War, I think,
00:17 for the last two years, at least in Europe.
00:20 You know, definitely there's a lot of conflicts,
00:22 war conflicts happening globally.
00:24 And I checked, actually, some statistics for this, you know, chat,
00:27 and it looks like last year in December
00:30 we were at the biggest number of wars happening globally, right?
00:34 I think it's between 45 to 55 war conflicts happening globally
00:37 at this moment. So you can judge for yourself, right?
00:40 So definitely we are now in a very hot point.
00:44 Definitely we see that the level of the Cold War,
00:51 which is actually happening, can quickly transform into a hot,
00:55 you know, hot withstanding between the key leaders in the regions.
00:59 So it's a very hard question to say, will it happen when it happens?
01:02 But, you know, judging by the dynamics,
01:04 it looks like we are really at a very turning point in time at the moment.
01:09 Peter, are we, in historical terms?
01:13 I think when we use the word World War,
01:15 we tend to think back, of course,
01:17 to the two great wars of the 20th century
01:19 and how that engulfed the flames of Europe,
01:21 brought in every corner of the world.
01:23 And I suspect that what we're looking at today is slightly different.
01:26 It's localised fractures. Like Olga says,
01:28 we have more wars happening at the end of last year
01:31 than at any point in the last 30.
01:33 Defence budgets around the world are all going to go up in the coming years.
01:37 And, you know, the law of math tells you
01:39 that the more investment you make in your defence forces,
01:41 the more likely they are to be problems.
01:43 So the real big challenge, I think, is about the nuclear proliferation,
01:47 high levels of big weaponry that can be used
01:50 either through bad planning and through malevolence
01:54 or through the kinds of fractures where contacts between fighter jets
01:58 between different countries can have chain reactions
02:00 that can engulf us all.
02:02 So there are lots of small fires burning.
02:04 I'd probably think...
02:05 But they all sort of come together and there's a giant bushfire?
02:08 Well, I suspect that those small ones will get bigger.
02:10 I don't see at the moment a war that brings us all in.
02:13 In fact, most countries in the world
02:15 are highly neutral on Russia and Ukraine for, you know, for bad.
02:19 But have...choosing to abstain, not getting involved,
02:22 helping to move weapons, helping to move materials into Russia
02:25 through different third-party states.
02:27 So most people are trying to stay out of it and stay out of the way.
02:30 So a world war looks very different to the world where Australians,
02:33 Indians and others gave their lives to fight wars
02:35 that meant something in Europe.
02:37 So I suspect we're looking at something that can engulf us,
02:39 but not on that kind of scale.
02:41 Malcolm Turnbull?
02:42 Look, I think I agree with both friends here.
02:45 I think there's a lot of hot wars going on.
02:49 We don't, thank heavens, have a world war at this stage.
02:53 You mentioned a Cold War.
02:58 Is the tension between the United States and China
03:01 reminiscent of the Cold War
03:03 between the United States and the Soviet Union?
03:06 There are some similarities, but more differences, to be honest.
03:10 I mean, the Soviet Union and the United States
03:14 and its allies had very little economic integration.
03:19 China is the largest trading partner of most countries in the world
03:25 and certainly of the United States and Australia
03:28 and most of the countries in this region.
03:30 So the degree of economic integration
03:33 between these competitive superpowers is something that's quite different.
03:38 So plenty of complexity and plenty of risks,
03:42 but not yet a third world war, let alone a cold one.
03:46 Rebecca?
03:48 I think what's kind of interesting when you focus groups of Australians
03:53 about the extent to which they think we might be headed
03:56 towards a kind of global conflict,
04:00 their biggest concern really, other than China,
04:02 and there's concern around China,
04:04 is that we might be headed towards a kind of global conflict
04:08 around things like water
04:10 and that those kinds of scarce resources in the future
04:14 caused by climate change might actually bring those things about.
04:18 But when it comes to global conflicts, I've got to say,
04:23 most of the Australian community are kind of just really focused
04:27 on domestic concerns.
04:29 So we saw a lot of support for the Ukraine against Russia
04:33 when hostilities first happened.
04:36 We're starting to see that decline.
04:38 At the moment, we've got a community divided
04:40 on what's happening in Gaza.
04:43 And so we Australians don't tend to think an enormous amount
04:47 about global wars, which means, of course,
04:49 that we don't turn our minds towards what the government's doing,
04:52 which is probably a problem.
04:54 Mm. Chorchie, obviously, in our own region, there's the, you know,
04:59 the threat of a potential looming conflict.
05:02 The Pacific, obviously, is in a...
05:05 ..is being wooed by the West, Australia is part of that,
05:08 and obviously China.
05:10 Yes, and I think that's something that, in the Pacific,
05:13 we're conscious of, is the different countries,
05:17 different entities that are trying to compete for our attention.
05:21 And I think that in and of itself is also creating levels of conflict
05:25 within each of the countries in the islands,
05:28 and I think that then creates a level of uncertainty.
05:31 Just to the point where you're saying around some
05:33 of the conflicts, I think one of the key things that I think we need
05:36 to be mindful, especially in Australia, is the humanity associated with it,
05:39 but also what flow-on effect that has for refugees and asylum seekers.
05:45 And I think that's when Australia starts to become more interested
05:48 in this, is that then there's a flow-on effect,
05:50 especially even with what's happening in the Pacific,
05:52 let alone what might be happening overseas in other countries.