Between The Eers: WVU in the...Playoffs???
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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:10 Playoffs, playoffs, yes, we are talking about playoffs today.
00:14 College football has expanded the college football playoff format to 12 teams,
00:18 which we already knew,
00:20 we just didn't know exactly what the format was going to look like.
00:24 They voted on that earlier this week, we now know what that picture will be.
00:29 And we'll talk about how West Virginia can or
00:31 maybe can't get there in 2024 and in the future.
00:35 I'm Scott Callion, this is another episode of Between the Years here on
00:39 Mountaineers Now, make sure to hit that subscribe button on YouTube at
00:43 Mountaineers Now, give us a like and a follow on X at the same handle.
00:47 So the new format, 12 teams get in,
00:52 you get the five highest ranked conference championships in automatically.
00:59 With seven at large bits, the first four or
01:05 the top four will get an automatic buy,
01:08 while the other eight will play their way into that next round.
01:12 And I do think there are some issues with this.
01:17 I love the fact that they're going from four to 12,
01:21 gives teams like West Virginia and others an opportunity that
01:26 otherwise they wouldn't have had in the four team playoff.
01:29 But it's not going to stay like this for long, I wouldn't imagine.
01:36 The only reason I say that is because number one, you're going to piss off
01:42 one of the biggest brands in college football in Notre Dame.
01:44 Notre Dame cannot technically get inside the top four,
01:53 because they are not going to be able to play for a conference championship.
01:57 Unless they make the full fledged move to the ACC, they could go undefeated.
02:04 Okay, they could go undefeated, be number one in the college football
02:10 playoff rankings heading into selection Sunday, and drop all the way to five.
02:17 That's the highest they can be because they don't have a conference championship.
02:21 They have to have that.
02:23 It's part of the criteria to get that first round by.
02:25 So I don't think that's going to sit well with Notre Dame.
02:31 Maybe it's a nudge to say, hey, you got to go find a conference.
02:35 But I just don't see that playing out for very long.
02:39 And Pete Thamel, he also, ESPN, he also tweeted out that they were talking
02:46 about a 14 team format, which would potentially kick off in 2026.
02:55 So if there's already discussion about expanding it beyond 12,
02:59 then to me, before we even get this thing started,
03:04 this is not going to be the new norm for years to come, right?
03:08 You're not going to have the 12 team.
03:10 You're not going to have the situation where Notre Dame gets screwed if they go
03:12 undefeated, nor the number one team all year.
03:14 It's not going to happen.
03:16 So I do agree that you have to have some type of format in place where Notre Dame
03:22 is included to have a chance to be the number one team.
03:24 If they are the hands down number one team,
03:28 they've got to be able to give that to them, that number one seed.
03:32 But as far as this goes for the Mountaineers,
03:37 I love it, and I think you should too.
03:41 And I get some fans are saying, well, it takes away from the regular season.
03:46 No, it really doesn't, outside of a handful of teams, namely the four or
03:50 five teams that were in the college football playoff every damn year anyway.
03:54 It makes college football actually, to me, more important in the regular season.
04:02 You're going to have more games that are going to have more meaning.
04:06 You're going to have more games that are going to determine what happens on
04:12 selection Sunday.
04:13 It's not just going to come down to two or three games, or
04:16 it's not going to just come down to two or three teams leading into that Sunday.
04:20 If you're West Virginia, again, in 2023 and in previous years,
04:27 if you wanted a chance to get into the CFP, you had to go undefeated or
04:32 have one loss in a super strong resume.
04:37 Which is why when Shane Lyons was here as the AD,
04:41 he scheduled the way he did, he scheduled two power five non-conference matchups.
04:48 Because he knew if West Virginia had an 11 and 1 season, or
04:54 even a 10 and 2 at worst,
04:58 they were never going to get picked over an SEC runner up, right?
05:03 Say this is your situation played out, you think they're going to take them over
05:07 an undefeated Florida State even without their starting quarterback?
05:11 Probably not.
05:12 So you had to be able to pick the best schedule possible in terms of strength.
05:22 It's the only way it was going to work.
05:24 Unfortunately, it kind of backfired because West Virginia is one of
05:29 the few teams out there playing 11 power five teams every year.
05:34 And no one's really cared about the schedule.
05:38 But it comes down to a couple of teams that it really matters.
05:43 Cincinnati, for example, their schedule was heavily talked about when they got,
05:48 excuse me, when they got into the playoffs.
05:51 Because they were playing smaller, lesser teams.
05:56 West Virginia would be in the same boat had they have been there.
06:00 But maybe not if they were playing 11 power fives,
06:04 because that's the one thing they could say that really nobody else was
06:09 doing around the country.
06:10 But I do think for 24, this really opens up a window here.
06:18 And I get the Vegas sports books, they're saying six and a half wins.
06:25 You've got people saying they're tier three Big 12 program.
06:29 And I'm sure here in a couple of months when the Big 12 preseason media poll
06:33 comes out, that they're going to pick West Virginia somewhere in the middle
06:38 of the pack, and no one's really expecting much out of this team again,
06:42 for whatever reason.
06:43 Says this is a team that's hail Mary away from ten wins.
06:47 With its starting quarterback returning, with its top two running backs returning,
06:53 with all of its top receivers returning minus Devin Carter.
06:56 With yet a still very good offensive line despite the losses of Doug Nester and
07:02 Zach Frazier, and a rebuild defense.
07:06 I mean, I don't know.
07:09 I don't get why there's not enough hype for this team in the offseason.
07:13 Maybe it'll happen as the offseason goes, but as of right now, there's not much.
07:18 But for me, you're probably looking at those seven at large, right?
07:26 To win the Big 12, that's a big ask.
07:30 And I'm not saying this team can't do that.
07:33 But that would be asking this group to do something that no other
07:40 West Virginia team has done.
07:42 And I don't know if this group in particular is the group to get that job done.
07:50 They're good, might be the best talent that Neil Brown's ever had.
07:56 But is it a team that I see could go 11 and 1 and
08:01 win the Big 12 championship?
08:03 Probably not.
08:04 This is a more difficult schedule.
08:07 We've talked about this.
08:08 But with all those games being at home, it's gonna help you out.
08:14 So I think you have to look at the seven at large.
08:16 And really, I just think if you can get to 9 and 3,
08:24 which is not very far-fetched to think that they could do,
08:30 you're gonna give yourself an opportunity.
08:37 Because you're gonna be hanging around that top 15.
08:39 Let's face it, when you get to the end of the year, there's a lot of teams in
08:43 the top 15, a lot of teams, and even more in the top 20, that have 3 and 4 losses.
08:48 Very few have 2.
08:52 So if you get to 9 and 3, you're gonna put yourself in a great spot.
08:56 Here's the kicker.
08:59 If you get to 9 and 3, and you get to the Big 12 championship,
09:06 cuz let's say they lose the first game to Penn State.
09:09 And then they go 7 and 2 in Big 12 play, they get to the conference championship,
09:13 and they win it.
09:14 Or excuse me, say they lose it.
09:16 Now they're 9 and 4.
09:20 You're probably still in the mix, but I don't know.
09:26 I think you're probably on the outside looking at, if it's reversed,
09:31 you beat Penn State, you go 9 and 3, you lose the Big 12 championship.
09:39 And Penn State's in the playoff, you might have a case.
09:47 Again, but that 9 win mark, it gives you a chance,
09:51 I don't think it necessarily puts you in.
09:53 Getting to 10, now we're talking, because you were either probably
10:00 couldn't win the conference, or you're having
10:04 a serious discussion about being one of the best teams
10:10 that isn't a conference champion.
10:13 And I think 10 wins ought to put you in that spot.
10:17 So if everyone just assumes they're going to lose to Penn State,
10:21 that gives you one other game to lose,
10:23 whether it's from week two all the way to the conference championship.
10:27 Or also the Big 12 championship, like I said, cuz if you could lose another game
10:34 in the season, you get to 10 and 2, lose the Big 12 championship.
10:37 I still think they're in.
10:39 So obviously there's a lot that goes into this.
10:43 It's not a perfect science, it's not, West Virginia has to get to this number
10:49 of wins to be able to get in, because we have no idea what other teams around
10:52 the country are going to do.
10:54 But getting this opportunity to go to 12 should make West Virginia fans
11:00 extremely excited, because there is a path that really wasn't there before.
11:05 I mean, you could say, yeah, there was, but it was impossible.
11:10 They were going to have to run the damn table before.
11:14 It's not necessarily the case now.
11:16 You don't have to be perfect.
11:18 And before they moved to 12, my theory, really when the four team came out,
11:24 I said that they were doing it wrong, they shouldn't have done that.
11:29 They should have went to eight.
11:31 And I'm still a huge put eight teams in, but I don't mind the 12.
11:37 Because again, the more you add,
11:39 the more chance it gives teams like West Virginia to get in.
11:42 14, 16, I don't know, we're starting to get a little bit too far.
11:48 That's, to me, I don't know if it needs to expand that deep.
11:51 But my eight team format was, at least back at the time,
11:57 because you had the Pac-12, you give an automatic bid to the conference
12:02 champion of each of the power five, and then three at largest.
12:05 Simple as that.
12:06 Pretty much a similar structure as this.
12:09 The only worry is, obviously, is if you have a year in which one of those power
12:14 five teams is really down, or those power five leagues is really down,
12:19 and you have a conference champion that's got, I don't know, four losses.
12:24 I mean, it's hard to justify putting in a team that may be nine and
12:28 four over an 11 and two SEC runner up.
12:33 So that's the hard part about it.
12:37 That's why I like this format, because you're getting seven at large bids,
12:42 not just three, seven.
12:44 So it's hard to really leave out a good football team that deserves to play for
12:49 a national championship.
12:53 So when we look at the schedule, I mean, outside of Penn State,
12:58 I mean, that first half of the schedule, that's gonna be tough to navigate.
13:03 I'm not gonna lie.
13:03 Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, I mean, those are, Iowa State,
13:09 that's some pretty tough teams.
13:11 If they get past that first half of the schedule,
13:17 with one or two losses at most, I really think they have a chance to make a run at it.
13:24 I do, because the back end of the schedule is more favorable.
13:29 And I think this is a team that once it starts to win and gets itself going,
13:34 it's just gonna be a snowball of momentum in their way, in their direction.
13:38 But I don't know if it'll happen this year.
13:45 I don't know that it'll happen next year.
13:47 But I would be willing to bet if this program continues to trend and
13:53 the direction is trending, the Mountaineers will
13:59 get a birth to the college football playoff sooner than later.
14:03 I don't wanna put a time stamp on it because there's so
14:06 much that goes into this, injuries, recruiting, transfers, it's a lot.
14:12 Things change on a year to year basis.
14:13 As of this year, right now, 2024, I think they're right on the edge.
14:20 Outside looking in, but I think they can play their way there.
14:23 It's 100% out there on the table for them, right for them to grab.
14:28 And they get that opportunity, put a really good stamp of approval
14:33 on their resume in week one against Penn State.
14:36 I'm Skylar Callan, that'll do it for me here today on Between the Ears.
14:41 Again, you can check us out on YouTube at Mountaineers Now.
14:44 You could also visit our site at mountaineersnow.com on SI.
14:50 And we will wrap things up for the show tomorrow.
14:53 And we'll also have the West Virginia Iowa State basketball
14:58 post game show on Saturday, that one tipping off at 2 PM.
15:02 So thank you guys for tuning in.
15:04 We'll check back with you here tomorrow on Between the Ears.
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