الدين العالمي يسجل مستوى قياسي في 2023... هل نتجه لأزمة جديدة؟
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00:00 The world debt is rising again in 2022, with the big increases we have seen in the interest rates,
00:14 starting in 2023, and we have started to see a difference in the scene.
00:23 The world debt rose 15 trillion in the past year to 313 trillion,
00:34 as we have indicated there is a decline, but we also see that the trend is always rising.
00:43 The leading markets were the biggest contributors in this debt rise, 8.3 trillion dollars,
00:55 and the most prominent was the United States, which as we know today, the government plays the biggest role in this debt rise.
01:04 We are talking about 2 trillion dollars of new bonds, France and Germany, which has been struggling with their economy recently.
01:16 As for the emerging markets, yes, we have also seen a rise in the levels of debt,
01:21 but most of this debt came from Brazil and India, and also China.
01:27 We are talking about emerging markets today, which have about half of the debt we have seen in the leading markets,
01:36 at 104.8 trillion dollars.
01:40 This is for the world debt, which is at 330% of the global total local income,
01:48 but despite the rise we have seen today in this debt, it has decreased by about 2% compared to the global total local income.
01:58 In this chart we can see how the debt has declined compared to the global total local income,
02:07 especially since the child we have seen in the debt rise was in the period of the corona pandemic,
02:14 and during this period we have seen the release of a lot of debt, especially from governments,
02:20 but after a big rise compared to the decline we have seen in the global total local income,
02:29 we are witnessing the correction of the course, but it is still higher than the levels we had in the past decade.
02:38 We have a decrease in the rate of debt to the local income, the reasons are the economic decline,
02:45 and the decrease in the rate of inflation in the last quarter,
02:50 and this is what is important in decreasing the rate of debt to the global total local income.
02:57 But we still have fears about the emergence of emerging markets,
03:03 and we have seen that the rate of debt to the global total local income is 225%,
03:10 and we have seen that many countries have achieved new levels of inequality.
03:16 Some of them may have good reasons,
03:18 for example, when we look at Russia, China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and even Malaysia,
03:26 they have little debt compared to the developed countries, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom,
03:36 so they have the ability to borrow, and on the contrary, what happens with Argentina,
03:41 and we also see that the economy is expanding at a very high rate.
03:46 The developing countries also issue liquidity bonds in January with 47 billion dollars,
03:55 and we are at unprecedented levels according to Morgan Stanley,
03:59 and this is due to the growth of their financing,
04:02 and we have seen that many economists in the international banks say that developing countries
04:06 need a faster economic growth to serve their debts with the increase in borrowing costs.
04:13 The problem today is in refinancing,
04:18 especially the loans that reach maturity, refinancing them at higher interest rates.
04:25 This was a source of fear for many economists that it is possible to get into a crisis
04:32 if we do not witness a capacity, whether for companies or even for countries,
04:38 to refinance these loans if the interest rates continue to rise.
04:44 As-salamu alaykum.