A tropical low over the north of Australia could intensify to become a tropical cyclone.
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00:00 A tropical low is developing over the Gulf of Carpentaria and it has a moderate risk
00:05 of intensification into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days.
00:09 Whether or not this intensification occurs, we still anticipate areas of strong wind and
00:14 heavy rain across parts of North Queensland and the Northern Territory.
00:17 Here's a look at water vapour imagery showing us where the moisture is in the atmosphere
00:21 and across the Gulf we can see this mass of warm, moist conditions which is leading to
00:26 a lot of thunderstorms at the moment.
00:28 But just looking at the satellite, hard to make out too much rotation, which is what
00:32 we expect when we're talking about tropical lows.
00:35 However, we certainly anticipate that rotation to strengthen through the afternoon hours
00:40 on Thursday as this low pressure area just sits over those warm Gulf waters.
00:45 If we are going to see tropical cyclone development, there's only a small window where that can
00:50 occur because on Friday, tomorrow, we anticipate this low pressure area to move its way southwestwards,
00:56 across the coast and move onshore.
00:59 If this is not a tropical cyclone, by the time it does work its way onto land, it will
01:03 not develop into a tropical cyclone after that.
01:06 So the only chance for tropical cyclone development is late on Thursday or early on Friday.
01:11 But even if that doesn't occur, there will be significant weather with this tropical
01:15 system, including the risk of strong to damaging winds through this orange area here along
01:20 the North Queensland and the Northern Territory coastlines.
01:23 This line here is the border between the two states.
01:26 This orange area is the warning zone and we can zoom in a little further to see which
01:29 areas in particular are affected.
01:31 The warning region runs from Port Roper in the Northern Territory down to Birktown in
01:36 Queensland including Mornington Island and Port MacArthur.
01:39 Through this orange area we expect the onset of gale force winds in the next 24 hours,
01:45 so that is going to be by Friday afternoon.
01:48 As well as strong wind, there will be significant rainfall through the next couple of days as
01:52 this tropical low, or potential cyclone, work its way onto and then across the Northern
01:57 Territory heading in this westward direction.
02:00 Quite a lot of rainfall is anticipated through these northern areas, particularly near the
02:04 path of this low pressure area.
02:06 Daily rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm are expected widespread around the path with isolated
02:12 spots reaching between 150 and 200 mm.
02:16 We could even see rainfall totals above and beyond that, particularly around far northwest
02:21 Queensland around the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
02:25 This incoming rainfall is expected to have a river response.
02:29 We've got a number of flood watches out covering parts of northwest Queensland and the Northern
02:33 Territory where we may see flood response and we may see river levels rise.
02:38 Many of these areas have had severe flooding, major flooding in the past couple of weeks
02:43 associated with ex-tropical cyclone Kerala.
02:46 And in a number of these spots, particularly in north Queensland, the floodwaters are still
02:50 easing from the last round of flooding.
02:52 Of particular concern are the Domergy and Burke Town regions where many roads are closed
02:56 and communities are still isolated.
02:59 So further flooding is a possibility into those hard hit regions.
03:03 Across the tropical north, do stay up to date with the latest weather and warnings which
03:07 you can find at the Bureau website and app, and as per usual, follow all advice from local
03:11 emergency services.
03:13 Thanks very much for watching.
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