The exchange of drug bombshells between former President Rodrigo Duterte and current President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. represents a high-stakes gambit: how much will Marcos tolerate verbal abuse and threats from his predecessor? Is Duterte risking irrelevance by making threats that no longer resonate beyond his Davao base?
Dr. Aries Arugay analyzes the political chess match and the various other players involved.
Dr. Aries Arugay analyzes the political chess match and the various other players involved.
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00:00:00 Good day, Podmates! How is Severino Muli?
00:00:03 Let me remind you that long attention spans are very useful.
00:00:07 There are many events in our politics.
00:00:10 Should we be concerned with the likes of Marcos and Duterte?
00:00:14 Or is it just a shallow and temporary rumor?
00:00:18 What is happening in the Unity Team?
00:00:21 We have with us Dr. Aris Arugay, Political Scientist and Chair of the Political Science Department of UP Diliman
00:00:29 to clarify our current political situation.
00:00:33 Good day to you, Aris. Thank you for inviting us.
00:00:38 Good day, Howie. Thanks for having me.
00:00:41 Prof, there's a lot to unpack here.
00:00:44 But I'll just lay the groundwork so our listeners will understand what we're talking about.
00:00:51 When this scandal started between former President Duterte and President Bambang Marcos,
00:00:59 it immediately became a meme.
00:01:01 This is the real drug war.
00:01:04 Polvoron or cocaine versus fentanyl.
00:01:08 Popcorn was released because of its entertainment aspect.
00:01:13 But after a few days, various rumors are spreading
00:01:18 about what could possibly happen.
00:01:21 Some are using the word "Kudeta" etc.
00:01:25 Prof, is this more than a temporary distraction?
00:01:30 What could possibly happen to the government?
00:01:33 How could it affect the people?
00:01:36 Howie, we may consider them the two most powerful political dynasties at the moment.
00:01:41 This was not forged for a long time.
00:01:45 It was really a convenient conglomeration of mutual interest.
00:01:54 But at the same time, we know that the restoration of the Marcos dynasty
00:02:00 at the peak of political power in the country was occasioned by former President Rodrigo Duterte himself.
00:02:09 He made the Marcos brand very palatable to the Filipino public once he assumed the presidency in 2016.
00:02:22 We're not saying that the alliance is the same.
00:02:28 That's present.
00:02:29 If we look at our political history, there's no alliance that hasn't fought, that's always been there.
00:02:36 But what is really strange is why is dirty laundry and mudslinging being done in public?
00:02:49 I mean, this is I think what is the difference compared to previous alliances before.
00:02:59 It's not just in public, but the allegations are quite, to say the least, very unstatesmanlike,
00:03:12 unprecedented, and let's say gutter language, right?
00:03:19 And this is very unbecoming of supposedly a former head of state and the current head of state.
00:03:29 Okay, Aris, I want to pick up on that because what you're saying, unstatesmanlike, gutter language, etc.
00:03:39 Well, we've been used to that.
00:03:41 I guess if you're President Duterte or former President Duterte, it was actually an effective behavioral strategy on his part,
00:03:57 if you would call it a strategy.
00:03:59 I mean, people see this as being authentic.
00:04:04 So it's not really an issue for him and his followers of being unstatesmanlike, using profanity.
00:04:17 It's actually worked to his benefit.
00:04:20 But my question here is, is there a real game plan here or is he just releasing emotion?
00:04:28 What is the possible objective here, especially since they don't seem to talk as a family about their tactics?
00:04:41 I mean, if you believe Vice President Sara Duterte, who says that she never spoke to her brother, Mayor of Davao, Sebastian Duterte,
00:04:54 who called for President Bombo Marcos' resignation, and then she has not said anything negative about the president.
00:05:02 And in fact, she was even assigned to be a caretaker, a leader, during the recent state visit to Vietnam of President Marcos.
00:05:14 So it's like, it's like, it's like a mess.
00:05:18 It's like, it's like, it's like a mess.
00:05:20 Where is this going?
00:05:21 From what I observed, we know that since last year, and sometimes you can even trace in the beginning of the Marcos administration,
00:05:33 our question is, is this really an alliance of equals?
00:05:38 The posturing of the Dutertes is that they made it possible for the Marcos dynasty to be restored.
00:05:49 And the victory of Marcos Jr. would not have been possible if not for Sara Duterte deciding to slide down to the vice presidency.
00:06:00 There is proof here because according to public opinion polling, when Sara was still in the running for the presidency, she was an advantage to Bombo Marcos.
00:06:13 And some statements of Sara Duterte, the vice president, mentioned that to imply that if she didn't make that decision, the one sitting in office would not be the president.
00:06:27 So there seems to be this perception that the Dutertes are the ones who are leading and have real power.
00:06:38 And I think those in the Marcos side of the alliance have decided that the partnership should not be skewed towards the dynasty who is not actually in power right now.
00:06:55 So over a series of perhaps deliberate decisions, there was what I observe is that there was an attempt really by the campaign to disempower the Dutertes.
00:07:10 So for example, Sara Duterte wanted that defense portfolio. She did not get it.
00:07:15 I mean, you don't need to be a political scientist to figure out why you will give the defense portfolio, that you have the closest relationship to the real power, to a constitutional successor. That's one.
00:07:34 Vice President Sara Duterte publicly released a statement saying she was promised this and it was not given. This was in the very early days of the administration.
00:07:48 Right, right. And after that, the issue was transferred to confidential funds that were not given.
00:07:58 And then if you notice the cabinet makeup of Marcos Jr., it's a far cry from the heavily militarized cabinet of Rodrigo Duterte.
00:08:07 And some of the "Duterte appointed generals" were transferred. At the moment, it was just NSA Anno and the peace advisor of the Duterte appointed generals.
00:08:26 Apart from the confidential funds, it seems like President Marcos also had policy switches in terms of key policy legacies, supposedly, of the Duterte administration.
00:08:42 The pivot to China, the bloody war on drugs, NTF-ELCAC, and quite recently, the ICC case.
00:08:53 So what we observe is that gradually, the politics in the Philippines were being "Duterte-ized".
00:09:06 And this is why President Duterte had to, of course he might not have organized it, but his idea of going back to doubling down on his base.
00:09:20 The rally in Mindanao, and now talks of seceding, all of this is really to rally the base.
00:09:29 Because we know that the Dutertes really has no taste for what they call "Imperial Manila politics".
00:09:38 So they went back to their reliable base which is in Mindanao.
00:09:43 Okay, Aris, I want to ask you some of the urgent questions about the immediate future.
00:09:51 Because I guess that's what a lot of people are worried about, to the extent that people are worried.
00:09:57 What is the danger or risk that other elements in the military will have when it comes to President Duterte?
00:10:04 Because he actually addressed the military during his rally in Davao.
00:10:10 Many of us heard that, saying that the military will allow the use of force.
00:10:18 Of course, that's also a context of why President Marcos is called a drug addict.
00:10:27 I guess appealing to the law enforcement base that he still has, if he still has one.
00:10:35 So what are the risks accompanying those kinds of charges?
00:10:41 Are they real or is this just a lot of hot air on the part of a former president?
00:10:49 I think, indeed, it seems like former President Duterte is not living in the 21st century.
00:11:00 And why do I say that? Because while there have been military coups in our neighbors, Thailand, Myanmar,
00:11:07 in Philippine history, we've never had a successful military-led coup in our history.
00:11:14 None. All of those failed.
00:11:16 And the only time military intervention, undue military intervention in settling a legitimacy crisis occurred was in 2001,
00:11:25 when the military came in there reactively at late.
00:11:30 They saw the groundswell of people and then the institutions have taken a backseat,
00:11:38 the impeachment trial was aborted.
00:11:40 That's when they saw that they needed to know.
00:11:43 But for them to instigate anything at this moment,
00:11:47 particularly you have a government that's been elected with a majority mandate,
00:11:53 the notion that there's a legitimacy deficit is not there.
00:11:59 And it tells you that if anything, coups in the country will only be successful with popular support.
00:12:07 On the other hand, we must also ask, does the military have an appetite to rule?
00:12:14 I mean, they have no experience in ruling the entire country.
00:12:19 I'm not a professional general. I'm not trained.
00:12:24 And I'm not going to look at how to lead this chaotic Philippines.
00:12:30 So I mean, to invite the military is, of course, again, conduct and becoming of not only a former president,
00:12:38 but a citizen of the country that should respect the constitution and the rule of law.
00:12:46 Obviously, we all know that rule of law has always been the challenge with former President Duterte,
00:12:54 even when he was president.
00:12:56 But let me just say that this invites possibly instability that we don't need in our country today.
00:13:09 And we should not hear more from an alliance whose only campaign during the election is unity.
00:13:18 That's the only thing we can get.
00:13:21 So I think we must trust that the military itself is professional and the military should not listen to those that have no,
00:13:33 let's say, no legitimate authority to tell them what to do.
00:13:39 Because I think the military itself, due to many decades of reform, has been at its most professional level.
00:13:48 In fact, their orientation is external defense.
00:13:52 So why would you drag them again to the years in which they participate in internal politics?
00:14:02 First of all, they're not trained to do that.
00:14:04 Second, it's not their job.
00:14:06 It's the job of politicians.
00:14:08 And apparently, our political elites are not doing their jobs.
00:14:11 Many analysts would agree with you that the chances of a military coup succeeding are very slim or slim to none.
00:14:20 However, there can still be elements that will cause trouble, which might be the goal or at least the threat of causing trouble.
00:14:30 So are there elements in the military that can accompany or go along with any kind of a plan or even nudge to do something crazy like that?
00:14:46 The challenge in the civil-military relations in the Philippines is always the undue influence, particularly of those who are no longer in active service in the military itself.
00:15:01 That's why we sometimes see that even if they're retired, the sway is still big.
00:15:06 We all know that Duterte has highly favored the military during his term.
00:15:11 And we also know that the Marcos Jr. administration is trying to finally reform the military and to make it a professional one,
00:15:22 even addressing some of the problems that were left behind by previous administrations like the pension system.
00:15:29 So I think there might be those who could be convinced, but the larger question is,
00:15:36 even if there are military adventures in politics, can the public support it?
00:15:45 Can the people support it?
00:15:47 Because if it will have any chances of success, there needs to be popular support.
00:15:54 And not only that, will they be seen as legitimate?
00:15:59 Because what basically former President Duterte is asking the military is to grab power.
00:16:06 In a country where we have consensus that the only legitimate way to transfer power is through elections.
00:16:14 And there's no evidence so far that we know that the 2022 elections was an illegitimate exercise of the people's will.
00:16:25 So I think that might be the objective, to shake the foundations and to throw a monkey wrench to a government
00:16:36 that was supposedly elected by a majority of the electorate to cause trouble, to cause paranoia,
00:16:45 which I think it begs the question, who are they doing this for?
00:16:53 Because if they're just doing it for themselves, then they cannot be called political leaders,
00:17:01 nor representatives, nor servants of the people.
00:17:05 Okay, well, that's it.
00:17:07 It seems that the calls for President Marcos to resign did not resonate with the public.
00:17:16 It seems that we did not feel the enthusiasm for a military coup to end this particular administration.
00:17:28 There are still calls for Mindanao to secede.
00:17:31 There are political leaders in Mindanao who are saying, "No, that's not a good idea either."
00:17:37 All of these calls by the Dutertes, at least the Dutertes in Dabao, the former president, Duterte and his son, Baste, are falling flat.
00:17:51 Do you think there's also a risk that they could actually be wasting whatever political capital they have
00:18:03 by making calls, by trying to do things that will not appeal to the public,
00:18:11 except for, I guess, the crowds that show up at their rallies?
00:18:15 Yeah, I mean, I think it's a gamble, but I also don't want to totally leave out the idea that the Dutertes really think that,
00:18:30 you know, they have so much political capital that they are engaging in risky behavior by throwing it away.
00:18:38 We all know that President Duterte had higher approval ratings by the time he left office than during the time that he assumed office,
00:18:47 which has never happened in any Philippine president since public opinion polling began in the country.
00:18:52 But at the same time, if you were the former president, how would you want the people to remember you?
00:19:02 By doing such, insinuating these things that so far have no buy-in, you're actually casting yourself to further irrelevance.
00:19:16 And that might just happen. You just continue megaphoning all of these things and no one listens anymore.
00:19:26 Because to be honest, what I want to ask to those who are aspiring to this,
00:19:33 haven't we all gotten tired of it? Because all of our neighbors in ASEAN will pass us by.
00:19:40 Economically, supposedly, our conditions are good with the exception of course of inflation and unemployment and inequality.
00:19:51 But what the foreigners are always telling me, those who are observing us, is that it's the politics, it's the quality of your political elite.
00:20:02 And thus the question, if you're any Filipino citizen, do these people still speak for you on your behalf?
00:20:13 Because if not, then we must let them know what else is new.
00:20:18 We've heard all of these things before. What else can they offer more unless they're only preaching to the choir
00:20:27 and they're only mobilizing the same true believers and not really the silent majority supposedly.
00:20:34 Well, that's what's possible here. They'll keep on making noise, but their calls for this kind of change won't resonate with the whole country.
00:20:47 The former President Duterte, despite record high approval rates when he exited his office,
00:20:58 looking back, there just seems to have been a series of strategic errors.
00:21:05 If you just try to analyze his rhetoric and actions, if he didn't want BBM to succeed him or have any chance of succeeding him,
00:21:20 then why take the trouble of helping rehabilitate the Marcos image with the heroes' burial and speaking so highly of the father?
00:21:38 And then on the part of Sara, despite her high approval ratings before the election and before they decided to join forces,
00:21:53 she slid down to VP and as a result, she won against her father's will.
00:22:08 So they kind of planted the seeds of this kind of conflict during the campaign itself. So there just seems to be so much dissonance
00:22:20 on the part of the Dutertes when it comes to how they're going to relate to the Marcoses.
00:22:28 If the former President Duterte really doesn't want this, why join forces at all if there's a big chance that Sara will win without teaming up?
00:22:42 Right. Definitely, I can distinctly remember when Duterte started his presidency,
00:22:48 a lot of my colleagues in academe were saying that Duterte is the most brutal, fiercest, strong man the country has ever seen.
00:23:02 However, over time, we can see that this is a strong man who doesn't seem to have a long-term plan
00:23:12 because his counterparts in other countries, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, or the one from Turkey,
00:23:19 they really made sure that they prolonged themselves in power.
00:23:24 They changed the constitution that allowed them to go beyond their terms of office.
00:23:31 They made sure the institutions will be on their side.
00:23:36 For a moment, if you look at the Supreme Court right now, a majority are Duterte appointees.
00:23:42 If you look at the constitutional commissions right now, independent ones, they're all appointed by Duterte.
00:23:48 So unfinished, and it doesn't seem to be organized.
00:23:53 Therefore, it seems like Duterte himself, President Rodrigo Duterte, did not really strategically plan.
00:24:02 I think at the end, the Dutertes are realizing that in Philippine politics, it is such a winner-take-all scheme
00:24:09 that it doesn't matter if you won the election last time.
00:24:14 What matters is who is the president.
00:24:17 Because if the president is the one who is being governed by power.
00:24:22 I think the most strategic blunder was to really allow another dynasty to take power
00:24:31 when you were supposed to be at the peak of it.
00:24:34 If that is the case, really, what could have happened is that Sarah Duterte should not have accepted the vice presidency
00:24:46 and should just have run as president.
00:24:48 But of course, these are all hypotheticals.
00:24:50 What I'm saying is, at the end, you might be a very powerful political personality,
00:24:57 but if you are not president, then you don't have real power at all.
00:25:02 And your political power will always be precarious because you are not the one sitting on the throne.
00:25:09 Well, so I guess, in a way you're saying, it seems like the Marcos have united the Dutertes.
00:25:18 I guess because one of the only reasons, or perhaps the major reason that Sarah slid down to VP,
00:25:26 is she was expecting that she would get the Marcos' support when it was her turn to run for president.
00:25:36 In a way, the Dutertes had to trust the Marcos.
00:25:42 So that could have been another strategic mistake, by trusting another dynasty to share power with you.
00:25:50 Because there are other Marcos' now and Romaldeses that are in line, that think that they're in line,
00:25:59 and now have a strategic advantage.
00:26:03 So in a way, despite all the advantages that the Dutertes have or have had,
00:26:11 including the high approval ratings at the end of the Duterte administration,
00:26:15 in a way, they were united by the Marcos.
00:26:18 Well, the Marcos dynasty has been existing and has been in the national political arena for a much longer time than the Dutertes.
00:26:29 But let us remember, the Duterte dynasty was mainly a locally based one,
00:26:35 and its first foray into national politics was only in 2016.
00:26:40 On the other hand, the Marcos' are, what is that, several generations, right?
00:26:45 And throughout a period of time, and not all dynasties are equal,
00:26:52 but in terms of our political acumen and political skill,
00:26:59 if I were to assess the different dynasties, the Marcos' really are way more advanced in terms of experience,
00:27:09 in terms of the many political battles that they have to fight.
00:27:15 And on the other hand, it seems like the Dutertes, and even when President Duterte was president,
00:27:21 still seems to not totally understand how national level politics work,
00:27:30 and how the constellation of different political forces, of different political elites, defines Philippine politics.
00:27:40 It's not like, "Oh, I'm the president, and everything I say will happen."
00:27:45 That's the problem, we did not really see that.
00:27:48 So even if President Duterte said something, most of the other allies, when he was president,
00:27:54 and even let's say the military, he wanted a pivot to China,
00:27:58 but some in the military would say, "We don't think so."
00:28:03 So therefore, the Balikatan exercises continued, relations with the US and Western allies continued,
00:28:09 despite the hard sell of Duterte to shift to China and Russia.
00:28:15 The military didn't pay him any attention, and he's commander-in-chief supposedly.
00:28:20 More than two years ago, you wrote about a so-called emerging dynasty cartel,
00:28:28 between the Marcos' and the Dutertes'.
00:28:32 You said, "It's another level of Philippine dynastic politics."
00:28:36 And you said, "This alliance between the families, if it becomes ironclad,
00:28:44 an extension of power is possible even beyond 2034, because that's how cartels work."
00:28:52 So this dynastic cartel that you're talking about, and you're the first analyst or writer I've seen use this term,
00:29:02 it's a short-lived term if you're to judge by recent events.
00:29:10 It looks like bridges have been burned.
00:29:16 There's no turning back after Digong and Bombong accused each other of being addicts.
00:29:28 Although BBM seems to have forgiven former President Duterte for drug references or accusations in the past.
00:29:41 But did you actually foresee this scenario where this dynasty cartel would actually end long, long before the next election?
00:29:56 When I tried to somehow give an idea of this alliance, which the two biggest and most powerful political dynasties,
00:30:07 if they ever are able to keep it together, it's such a formidable political force in the country,
00:30:17 and with enough descendants. So there's a line, so you can give and take.
00:30:26 But the entire cartel idea rests upon an equal partnership and a partnership in which power will be shared, even promiscuously.
00:30:41 The thing is, even if there's an alliance, the problem is what solidifies the commitment to stay in the alliance.
00:30:53 And if there are perceptions that I'm not going to give, I'm not going to accommodate, then the alliance falls apart.
00:31:01 So I think we're not seeing much and the prospects of this dynasty cartel are very low.
00:31:10 I'm not totally counting it out because sometimes, Hawi, they might unite during elections.
00:31:17 Now, it's a fight, but when the time comes, especially if there's a credible threat from other political forces,
00:31:26 then pragmatism will rule. Words have been said to one another, but the larger, the bigger picture,
00:31:34 the larger goal is to ensure that power stays within them.
00:31:40 That's why the cartel idea will really no longer be relevant if one believes that one does not need the other
00:31:50 in order to perpetuate themselves in power or to regain power that they have lost.
00:31:56 So if the Marcos dynasty and Duterte dynasty believe that they no longer need each other,
00:32:03 then we will see really the end of this alliance.
00:32:07 And we're seeing it now because, in reality, if there's a polarization now, it seems like it's between the two.
00:32:15 And there's no third force. I'm not saying the opposition doesn't exist, but we're not feeling them.
00:32:23 We're not really seeing the umbrella, the tent, that is supposed, in which there is a lot of space for.
00:32:34 Because if you ask Filipinos now, "O, kaninong koponan ka ba?" Some of them might even say, "Neither."
00:32:41 And I'm hoping na may ibang alternatives, but unfortunately, we're not seeing it right now.
00:32:49 You referred to the Marcos and the Dutertes as an alliance, but obviously you see them as more than just an alliance.
00:32:58 You call them a dynasty cartel. Usually, the word "cartel" is used in the context of a drug cartel or oil cartel
00:33:07 where other players are excluded, sometimes violently.
00:33:14 So in your view, this alliance, this unit team, this tandem that was formed between the Marcos and the Dutertes
00:33:23 was a cartel that's meant to exclude other players.
00:33:29 But this crack in this cartel is being viewed by others as an opportunity for, as you said, the third force.
00:33:42 What is the status of the opposition?
00:33:45 This many-man campaign for Lenny Robredo, who joined after the election here in Angat Buhay,
00:33:58 the mobilized youths in 2021-2022, who were also substantial.
00:34:07 What is the status of the third force or opposition?
00:34:12 Because now, the only opposition is the Dutertes.
00:34:16 Let us remember, 15 million voters casted their vote possibly against this alliance
00:34:25 when they casted their vote to the main opposition candidate, Lenny Robredo.
00:34:30 So this is no small number.
00:34:34 So it means that somewhere out there in this alliance of the Marcos and Dutertes,
00:34:40 there are people who can never see themselves siding one or the other.
00:34:47 At the moment, unfortunately, untapped.
00:34:51 Because for example, we're not seeing the usual, I would say, intense and massive opposition to Charter Change.
00:35:04 The ones who are leading against Charter Change are the Dutertes,
00:35:08 who campaigned for Charter Change when they were in power, ironically.
00:35:12 Because they are no longer the driver of Charter Change, they are probably against it.
00:35:20 Of course, as we all know in Philippine political history,
00:35:23 the one who is next in line or at least gunning for the presidency will always be the one against Charter Change.
00:35:30 That's the history of the Charter in the Philippines.
00:35:34 If you are the next president, of course you will not agree to changing the rules all of a sudden.
00:35:41 So there is an opportunity, but we must also understand how the opposition has failed to capture a lot of the hearts and minds of Filipinos.
00:35:57 We also know that how they were, of course, deliberately attacked and threatened and victimized by disinformation and fake news.
00:36:09 However, if in social media, for example, they are being disempowered,
00:36:15 that should not affect how they feel about their ability to offer themselves as alternatives to the public.
00:36:24 So, okay, I get it, I get it, I get it, licking one's wounds,
00:36:32 but there must be a timer and you will just have to stand your ground despite whatever online hate or fake news being said to you.
00:36:43 We are all victims of fake news here, so no one is really that special.
00:36:50 I think the key here is really to tap into that and create that big tent.
00:36:57 Unfortunately, sometimes the negative issues, ideological differences, sometimes those become spoilers.
00:37:09 But I hope these opposition sources, possibly the opposition, can rise, can think beyond themselves and think of the bigger picture
00:37:24 and to offer alternative leadership.
00:37:29 It doesn't have to be just an election.
00:37:31 I mean, the election should not be seen as the only arena of contestation, but it should lead to that.
00:37:40 It's important that they win.
00:37:42 But our democratic constitution at the moment, because it hasn't changed yet,
00:37:49 and our framework, we have civil liberties that allows freedom of expression and freedom of assembly at the moment,
00:37:58 then this is what we are not seeing for now.
00:38:02 It's sad to see it this way, but hopefully we will see something.
00:38:08 Because in a democracy, it's hard to have choices between lesser evils,
00:38:15 or as the song goes, "Devil in the deep blue sea." That's not a democracy.
00:38:20 Well, that's what's surprising for the observers of our politics.
00:38:26 During the campaign before the election of 2022, we did see so much energy.
00:38:34 There was no fear in the trolling on social media back then.
00:38:38 People were really coming out, speaking out, getting involved for the first time,
00:38:44 house to house, even talking to their enemies or enemies in their neighborhoods.
00:38:51 And then suddenly, it was like a homecoming.
00:38:55 And now, there was an opportunity, because the Marcoses and the Dutertes basically are tearing each other down.
00:39:06 It's kind of a surprising early opportunity in this administration for this third force.
00:39:18 So at this point, you still don't see that emerging. You still don't see any new activity on that front.
00:39:25 Because, Javi, at present, there is an existential threat to our present constitutional order.
00:39:31 Even if they say, "We will only move economic provisions."
00:39:36 The entire history of constitutional attempts to change the constitution of this country tells us otherwise.
00:39:44 That's why it hasn't succeeded ever since.
00:39:48 But now, it's the most serious, because it seems the political elites have learned how to go around
00:39:55 the legal and institutional obstacles that were faced by previous attempts.
00:40:01 Our constitution now has an existential threat, and we don't hear, we don't see, we don't feel the contempt regarding this.
00:40:16 Your news in the GMA that is paying for signatures. And it's such a ludicrous idea to think that people know the intricacies of procedure,
00:40:31 voting separately, voting jointly, to the point that it becomes the stuff of a people's initiative.
00:40:37 Let's not insult the intelligence of people, and let's not patronize them.
00:40:45 At the same time, I think this is the opportunity because it's less about personality.
00:40:51 You have a threat that the constitution is about to be tinkered.
00:40:57 And even if they say, "This is just economic provisions," everyone knows that once you open that, everything is fair game.
00:41:06 So, if you will look at those who are spearheading this, my question is, is there public trust?
00:41:19 And why now?
00:41:25 And every economist who is credible has said that you don't need to change the constitution if the objective is to improve the economy.
00:41:36 So, you are barking at the wrong tree. You should change it.
00:41:41 The key to attracting foreign direct investment is governance, the rule of law, it's eliminating bureaucratic red tape.
00:41:50 Because even if we change the constitution, foreign investors will at the moment choose Vietnam over the Philippines,
00:41:57 will choose other ASEAN countries.
00:41:59 A better looking constitution will not solve that problem.
00:42:05 But I'll just go back to what you're saying about the existential threat of charter change.
00:42:11 There are some ironies there. Right now, former President Duterte is leading the resistance to charter change.
00:42:22 When that was one of his signature promises when he was elected for the presidency,
00:42:30 on his platform was charter change, in particular federalism that he and many other leaders are advocating,
00:42:42 especially in Mindanao.
00:42:44 But now, it seems that he's outside of Colombo, he's leading the resistance to this.
00:42:51 So, it just seems like a personal motive here.
00:42:57 And then, another irony here is, similarly, President Marcos had not campaigned on any kind of charter change promise.
00:43:12 It wasn't mentioned on the platform.
00:43:14 So, it seems like there was some kind of Trojan horse here that wasn't promised and now it's there.
00:43:20 And it has an even greater chance, or do you think it has a greater chance of succeeding now?
00:43:26 So, what's coming out of this, there's no principle involved in this charter change.
00:43:33 It's all about how to extend politicians' terms and stay in power.
00:43:41 Or under Duterte, was there a sincere goal of making us a better functioning democracy under a federal system?
00:43:59 Right, right.
00:44:00 I'll go back to what you said that Marcos didn't really campaign for it.
00:44:03 In fact, when I presented the position paper of the UP Department of Political Science in a House hearing of the Committee on Constitutional Amendments,
00:44:12 I even mentioned that back then, BBM was even quoted in saying that,
00:44:19 "I don't think charter change is in the minds of the Filipino people right now, and I don't think it will succeed anytime soon.
00:44:27 And this is why it is never part of my campaign."
00:44:31 He was quoted there and I even read that quote to the dismay of the members of the committee of the House during that time.
00:44:40 This is part of being accountable to our politicians.
00:44:44 We must always demand them to stay true to their word.
00:44:50 And for a constitution that is not that many Filipinos do not understand,
00:44:57 not read, there are surveys wherein constitutional change is nowhere near the people's consciousness.
00:45:05 What is the basis?
00:45:07 That's why I think he's serious because the people are using the people's initiative in saying that this is as if it's a bottom-up process,
00:45:18 that the clamor comes from the people.
00:45:21 That's a good question.
00:45:23 If I were the only one with a survey firm, I would ask that.
00:45:27 Is this true?
00:45:29 Because if this is really what the members of the House are saying,
00:45:35 and this is not what people really feel,
00:45:37 then it seems like members of the House of Representatives are representatives of someone else
00:45:43 and not the people who voted for them, who may not even know the issues involved,
00:45:49 and yet it is being presented as if through people's initiative that they really want to change the constitution.
00:45:56 In fact, what they want to do is just change the way the House and the Senate will vote from separately to jointly.
00:46:03 I'm amazed at our people to be able to understand this.
00:46:08 I'm not demeaning, but all I'm saying is can we be realistic?
00:46:13 Is there really a demand coming from the grassroots that the change of the constitution should be that the Senate and the House should vote equally and not separately?
00:46:24 I think that's the tough question.
00:46:26 That's the hard question that we need to ask.
00:46:28 And hopefully our political leaders who think that they have the best interests of the people are willing to listen to the reality
00:46:37 because if not, then they are selling a different reality.
00:46:42 That's why it became serious, Howie, because there was a budgetary allocation that we didn't know about.
00:46:48 This is part of the magic of our budgetary process.
00:46:53 The media didn't cover this.
00:46:56 For context, the budgetary allocation for COMELEC for plebiscites, right?
00:47:04 Yes.
00:47:05 Just to be clear, for me, that's the budget.
00:47:08 Because plebiscites can be for a lot of things, right?
00:47:11 But you're saying that it was cut because someone is already planning to hold a plebiscite for the People's Initiative.
00:47:21 I mean, if it's really serious, if the intentions are really good and they really want to go with what the people feel and what the people think,
00:47:34 perhaps if there will be a plebiscite, the plebiscite should be to ask people whether they are in favor of changing the constitution or not.
00:47:41 You shouldn't assume that if there will be a question, because the other countries that changed their constitution started with that.
00:47:50 They asked the people, "Do you want to change the constitution?"
00:47:54 And if they said no, then it should be respected.
00:47:56 If they said yes, then we proceed so that it will truly be a democratic and people-oriented process.
00:48:03 So, it's coming out now, it seems like it's dictated by vested interests because it's opening the country to foreign capital, opening all these sectors.
00:48:13 Who will really benefit from this?
00:48:16 And it seems like the lobby is very strong because from the ads, from Edsa Cuera, there seems to be really a grand scheme.
00:48:30 And this is why for me, this is the most serious because they seem to have figured out and learned from previous attempts on how to do about this.
00:48:39 And it will really be unfortunate that we will just watch this as it goes along.
00:48:49 We won't express our own fears and our own doubts on this process.
00:48:56 It's like we're watching a car crash in slow motion and we can't do anything about it.
00:49:02 But I also want to point out that these dynasties are not monolithic when it comes to charter change.
00:49:10 As you know, Senator Aimee Marcos has been quite vocal against it.
00:49:16 In fact, they are competing with her first cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez, who is in favor.
00:49:23 The Dutertes down in Dabao, Digong and Bastet are against.
00:49:31 Sarah has been saying she's still with the administration on everything.
00:49:41 So she's been careful not to rock the boat.
00:49:45 And President Marcos has given her his continuing support.
00:49:54 So even within the dynasties, they are not united on their respective position.
00:50:01 So some are saying that this is just a moromoro.
00:50:07 It's all a part of a spectacle leading to the same thing.
00:50:13 So what do you think about this?
00:50:15 These Marcos are not really united.
00:50:19 Aimee versus Martin.
00:50:21 Where does President Marcos, Bongbong Marcos, really stand on all of this?
00:50:25 Right. I think at the end, if you're President Marcos,
00:50:29 you don't want to be seen as very intrusive into these games that politicians play.
00:50:36 Because you're the President, you're the head of state, you should be above politics.
00:50:40 Their position often comes from where they sit.
00:50:47 For example, Aimee Marcos' opposition is quite consistent with the opposition of the Senate as an institution
00:50:56 and Senators individually in every chacha attempt in Philippine political history.
00:51:01 That's why the way was devised to just circle the Senate through people's initiative,
00:51:09 by letting them be overwhelmed by the sheer number of the House of Representatives in voting.
00:51:15 But let us also remember that President Duterte's concom that he appointed before,
00:51:24 one possible amendment is we might have a bicameral system but they're no longer be co-equal.
00:51:33 Meaning the fear is that the Senate will be disempowered as an institution.
00:51:39 Because in all bicameral legislatures around the world, they don't need to be co-equal.
00:51:46 It's just a US presidential system.
00:51:49 If you look at other systems, normally the more numerous House is the more powerful one.
00:51:57 And if you're a Senator, you're nationally elected,
00:52:02 and we all know this is the recruitment pool of most of our Philippine presidents,
00:52:07 you won't be allowed in such a change in the way the rules are being put up.
00:52:16 On the other hand, Vice President Sara Duterte, of course she is hedging at the moment
00:52:23 because she doesn't really want to be put in one box because that will attract antagonism.
00:52:32 So at the end, I think, these variations are not surprising.
00:52:38 The immediate result is more confusion for us, for the public, unnecessary confusion.
00:52:49 And I think it distracts us from more important things that the country should be more focused on.
00:52:58 Okay, speaking of which, let's go back to the issue,
00:53:02 and maybe this is where we can also end, the difference between the former president and the current president.
00:53:11 Former President Duterte doesn't seem to be quiet anytime soon.
00:53:16 Recently, he challenged President Marcos to take a drug test and to ask whether his cocaine habit had a prescription, etc.
00:53:26 It's like a playground taunts.
00:53:28 You said it's unstatement-like, unseemly, but I mean, the former President Duterte is playing to his own base,
00:53:36 which seems to be amused at least by these things.
00:53:42 But what can happen here?
00:53:46 Will any president tolerate this kind of accusation, this kind of attack, indefinitely?
00:53:57 Even if it's from a former president who was popular, like President Duterte.
00:54:03 It's not just about drugs.
00:54:05 Former President Duterte called on the military to take action,
00:54:15 and even said that during his time, President Marcos was lucky because he was on the drug list,
00:54:25 and he was not, and he's still alive, and he was not victimized.
00:54:33 And even said he might end up like his father, President Marcos Sr., who was overthrown by people power.
00:54:41 This is kind of unprecedented.
00:54:43 I don't recall this kind of verbal assault against a current president from a former president ever.
00:54:54 I think at the end, the president of the country, the nature of the presidency,
00:55:00 it always has all the political tools in order to defend itself and promote its interests.
00:55:09 That's why I said earlier, at the end, what's important is whether you're sitting on his side or not.
00:55:17 So former President Duterte might create a lot of noise, might create a lot of distractions,
00:55:25 but at the end, he is risking irrelevance.
00:55:32 For now, it's confusing because of course, the political elites' fight for our Filipinos is like a spectator sport.
00:55:44 We sometimes want to see them competing, but I think it will get lame.
00:55:55 To use the term, it will also reach the point where we'll get fed up.
00:56:00 And if it's not entertaining, what else can former President Duterte do?
00:56:06 In the meantime, there are critical policy legacies that he truly believes in,
00:56:14 that for him, it's his legacy and that's the narrative that the Marcos administration is carrying.
00:56:22 And let's admit it, the way that Duterte and his allies have responded to the threat of ICC prosecution,
00:56:34 that for them is the existential threat.
00:56:38 And we all know that the prospects of that process making progress rest upon the government of the day,
00:56:49 which is occupied by Marcos Jr. and not the Dutertes.
00:56:54 Okay, so you think the only risk to former President Duterte when he keeps attacking President Marcos
00:57:00 is the risk of irrelevance, because some might think that what he's saying is already a form of sedition.
00:57:08 So there's also a risk to President Marcos if he just allows himself to be abused in this way.
00:57:18 So you're saying President Marcos will just wait this out until interest wanes
00:57:26 because for six years, we heard this kind of language and it seems like the other people are not losing interest in that kind of language.
00:57:44 I think in the end, and this is why it's good that you have institutions making statements,
00:57:50 speaking up, PIDEA launched something, the military through the chief of staff also issued a statement,
00:57:59 an institutional response because this is the style of former President Duterte.
00:58:03 Let's remember he was a fiscal before and fiscals usually accuse and allege.
00:58:08 That's why I think for us as citizens, media, as well as us in the academe and every sector in Philippine society,
00:58:17 to accuse is something but it's more important to provide evidence.
00:58:22 So evidence-based, facts-based, and if former President Duterte will keep on doing this without providing evidence,
00:58:36 then who will believe it?
00:58:39 But on the other hand, for President Marcos, I think there must be a calibrated response,
00:58:47 a combination of evidence because he's a citizen and he will be punished for the many supposedly work of a president.
00:58:59 But at the same time, his advisors must also ensure that he does not appear weak
00:59:04 and that the perception is that he is not governing the country from a position of weakness.
00:59:11 So I am sure the president has all the advice, the best advisors around that could tell him to address this through the formal tools of the presidency
00:59:30 but at the same time, do this politically.
00:59:33 The key here is who are the political allies from the political elites, from the politicians that are behind, for example, the former President Duterte and the Dutertes.
00:59:45 For example, Mindanao political elites are already negating a lot of what he is saying.
00:59:52 If there will be a loyalty check among the political elites, who are they?
00:59:58 We know that the Philippine president has all the tools to convince political elites to be on his side and not the side of the one accusing him of these allegations.
01:00:10 Okay, that's a good note to end on.
01:00:12 So thank you very much, Aris. Thank you for shedding light rather than spreading more heat.
01:00:19 Long live Dr. Aris Arugay, Chair of the Political Science Department at UP Diliman.
01:00:25 Thank you very much.
01:00:27 Thank you, Howie.
01:00:29 Hi, I'm Howie Severino. Check out the Howie Severino Podcast. New episodes will stream every Thursday.
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