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SportsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - So let me ask you, as I stated,
00:05 Warren Sharpe's one of the brightest minds
00:07 in sports handicapping and very analytical into data.
00:11 How did you start working with Warren
00:13 and what was it about officiating that caught your eye
00:18 that that became your interest to focus on?
00:21 - Well, to answer the first part,
00:24 Warren found me on Twitter
00:26 and he just started sort of retraining my content.
00:28 This is back in 2021.
00:31 And actually, as we got into the playoffs in 2021,
00:34 in fact, I remember it was a Bill Vinovich officiated game,
00:37 the AFC Championship between the Bengals and the Chiefs,
00:39 where there was a lot of no calls.
00:42 And Warren kept amplifying my stuff on Twitter.
00:45 And so in that off season, he reached out to me and said,
00:48 "Hey, would you be interested?" - That's awesome.
00:49 - So as far as me doing it to begin with,
00:51 yeah, go ahead.
00:54 - Well, I just wanted to ask, actually,
00:55 that so, with baseball handicapping,
00:58 a lot of baseball batters are really aware of the umpires,
01:01 what the strike zone is, this guy, he likes a fast game,
01:05 he wants to get back to the hotel, right?
01:07 Like the sort of nuances, and there's something to it
01:10 and handicappers believe in it
01:12 and some people never even imagine of it,
01:14 but how much do you look at each officiating crew
01:19 from a handicapping perspective
01:20 on a regular Sunday afternoon in the NFL with each crew?
01:24 - Well, I do the research during the week
01:27 because the NFL releases the assignments on a Tuesday.
01:30 So once they all come out,
01:31 and I already have an idea in my head
01:33 as to who I like in a certain game,
01:35 then once I see the officiating assignments,
01:37 then I'm like, okay, that either helps that bet
01:40 or maybe I'd take a step back.
01:42 You know, if I like a game over, let's just say TNC,
01:46 and such and such referees on it
01:47 who's kind of an under-referee,
01:48 I'm like, eh, that's not the greatest.
01:50 On the flip side, if I like a game over
01:51 and I see a good over-referee, I'm like, okay,
01:53 now let's really go all in on this thing.
01:55 - So you bet the penalty props every Sunday?
02:00 - No, well--
02:01 - Almost every game, or you pick your spots
02:03 with certain crews?
02:04 - As far as penalty props go, they're few and far between.
02:07 The sportsbooks don't do them mostly.
02:10 - No, and I'm fortunate that I know a few that do.
02:13 - Yeah, they do it for this game.
02:15 - Yeah, they will.
02:16 I'll tell you what, they didn't like the 10 1/2 bet
02:18 that I already got in 'cause they moved it to 9 1/2.
02:20 - Right, right, right.
02:21 And there's still some 10 1/2s out there,
02:23 but I don't see 11 penalties in the game.
02:25 I just don't see it.
02:27 We'll touch on the team averages later on,
02:28 but yeah, as far as during the regular season,
02:32 there's no penalty props, but a lot of this stuff
02:33 you can still use just on a week-to-week basis
02:36 like we do at Sharp Football.
02:39 You know, if Team A struggles with offensive holding
02:40 and there's a crew that calls a lot of offensive holding,
02:43 well, that's a problem.
02:44 On the flip side, if you've got a team
02:45 that commits a lot of defensive pass interference
02:48 and a referee who doesn't call a lot of that,
02:49 well, that helps them.
02:51 That's a weakness for them
02:52 that's not gonna be exposed as much.
02:54 (upbeat music)
02:56 [MUSIC]