El Niño may soon be coming to an end, which would bring a significant change for weather patterns in the U.S. But what does that actually mean? Let's take a look.
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00:00 New reports show that El Nino is showing signs of fading and a dramatic return to La Nina is possible later this year.
00:08 Jeff Cornish spoke with AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok on exactly what this means.
00:15 NOAA has recently issued a La Nina watch and we're going to talk about what this means and what's going on in the big picture across the Pacific, the Atlantic and also North America.
00:27 So joining us is a familiar face, it's lead long-range forecaster and senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok. Paul, thanks for making time for us.
00:34 No problem, Jeff. Thank you very much for having me on the show.
00:38 And Paul, you've been persistent over the past few months looking ahead and forecasting a cooling of the Pacific Ocean water near the equator,
00:46 stepping away from El Nino and possibly toward La Nina. So what does that mean downstream here in the U.S. and also into the Atlantic for the hurricane season?
00:54 The research that we have done has seen things changing in the Indian Ocean already and also in the Atlantic that lean toward the favoring of a rapid change here in the spring and early summer to neutral conditions
01:07 and then eventually into possibly a La Nina for the second half of 2024.
01:13 And what that means is as far as the overall storm track, the split that takes place is a little bit more dominant in the northern Pacific and we see more of a stronger, colder northern jet stream pattern
01:25 that brings down cold air and stormy weather into western North America and that's where you'll end up seeing more typically the worst of the weather as you get into the colder season toward the end of 2024.
01:38 And then just briefly, Paul, last thing I wanted to ask you about was how this could influence the Atlantic hurricane season coming up.
01:45 It all depends on when the La Nina forms and the atmosphere reacts to it. A weaker La Nina, slow for the tropical season to get going, but a stronger one fast during the peak of the season.
01:58 We could see a busy, busy, especially second half of the tropical season shaping up here in 2024 with this transformation taking place.
02:08 So it'll be the timing, very important. We already have warm waters. The timing will be critical going forward, Jeff.
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