Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 You're really having to, in your head,
00:07 figure out what you think the game
00:08 plan with the game script is going to look like.
00:10 This total at 47, very sharp, but we're
00:13 trying to figure out high scoring, low scoring.
00:16 What's generally the way you like to attack it
00:18 from the start if you're talking totals?
00:20 Well, first of all, a little disclaimer.
00:22 Totals are not necessarily my area of expertise.
00:25 I typically try and bet sides probably 95% of the time.
00:30 But obviously, this is a game, an isolated, an island game,
00:35 if you will, where you don't--
00:36 I mean, you have a ton of options in the prop market.
00:39 But otherwise, you have to just pick one side or one total.
00:42 We don't have 16 games on the schedule anymore.
00:45 So yes, I've been looking at the total,
00:47 and it's interesting to see that it really
00:49 has hardly moved at all.
00:50 We did see a tick here in Las Vegas up to 48 for a minute.
00:54 It came back down to 47 and 1/2.
00:58 I talked to a lot of people on Radio Road today,
01:00 interviewed a number of handicappers,
01:02 professional bettors, what have you, media types.
01:04 And the first half a dozen people we spoke with
01:07 all liked the under.
01:09 Then we started to get some leans towards the over.
01:13 I looked at the average scoring for both of these teams.
01:15 The Niners throughout the year scored a little over 29 points
01:18 per game, and it was roughly the same number when they played
01:21 against playoff teams.
01:23 And same for the Kansas City Chiefs.
01:25 They scored about 22 and 1/2 points per game,
01:27 and I think it went to 23 or so against playoff teams.
01:31 So you're looking at 29-23 as a final score.
01:34 That's 52 points.
01:36 I kind of think it will go over.
01:39 Now you look at the shift towards the running game
01:42 and Isaiah Pacheco for the Kansas City Chiefs.
01:45 Obviously, the well-established running attack
01:48 for the San Francisco 49ers.
01:50 That will tend to take time off a clock, tick, tick, tick,
01:53 when you rush that football.
01:54 Keep the ball in bounds.
01:55 Don't throw incomplete passes.
01:57 And that will tend to lead towards a game that
01:59 goes under the total.
02:02 But it's hard to wrap my head around this game
02:06 being so slow-paced.
02:08 I think both of these teams can score.
02:10 Now San Francisco, you look at EPA per play.
02:14 Basically, all the ratings you can find out there.
02:16 Number one offense in football.
02:17 Absolutely.
02:18 All the weapons.
02:19 The Kansas City Chiefs, the Niners
02:21 have played better offenses in the last couple of weeks
02:23 in the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
02:26 So Will San Francisco's defense is woes.
02:30 Their defense has fallen off a lot ever since week 11
02:34 when Telenoa Hufanga got injured.
02:37 That really opened up the Niners' run defense.
02:41 In week 11, they were fifth in EPA per play.
02:44 And now they are currently 14th.
02:47 So it's real what you're seeing about their defense falling
02:49 off.
02:50 It has been a real deal.
02:53 And maybe--
02:54 And particularly, Brady, their inability
02:55 to get off the field on third down.
02:57 Their third down defense has been a massive issue.
02:58 That's really been a problem more so the entire season.
03:01 But you're exactly right.
03:02 Getting off the field on third down has been a huge issue.
03:05 So maybe this Kansas City offense
03:07 that's a little bit more sputtering than we're used to
03:10 will have more success against the 49er defense that
03:12 has been having some struggles as of late.
03:15 And we know that the weakness of the Kansas City
03:18 defense for years, really in the Patrick Mahomes era,
03:21 has always been defending the run.
03:23 So I think if Patrick Mahomes and company can
03:25 have some success on offense, and the Niners can have success
03:29 rushing the football, I think there
03:31 are going to be points scored.
03:33 I'm looking at-- I would say the game will land right
03:36 around 50 is my guess.
03:38 49 to 51 would be my window.
03:42 (upbeat music)
03:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]