Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 You have a very explosive offense in San Francisco, a team that is scary because of the Shanahan
00:10 scheme but his ability to have so much talent utilized in a variety of different ways.
00:16 But I think what we're seeing with both of these offenses, they really feel like they
00:19 need to play from in front.
00:21 So what do we see with the Niners?
00:22 How do they get out in front?
00:24 What is the key for them?
00:25 Well they're going to have to be aggressive early and I don't think a lot of people know
00:29 about how deep this team passes the football down the field when they do pass.
00:33 So they're the number two most run heavy team on early downs.
00:37 However, they also are the number one deepest passing team when they choose to pass.
00:43 So it's a lot of runs, it sort of lulls you into this false sense of security that you
00:46 have to play closer to line of scrimmage, that you're going to be okay just trying to
00:49 figure out how to stop the run.
00:51 And then they don't try to throw it short on early downs, they're trying to go over
00:54 the top of your head as you've come up to try to stop the run.
00:56 I love the strategy by Kyle Shanahan.
00:59 It's one of the reasons that he's my favorite play designer in the NFL.
01:02 I just love what his offense does.
01:04 They use the highest rates of two running back sets.
01:07 Usually it's Kyle Uschak the fullback.
01:10 And they lull you into that sense that you've got to play with those heavier boxes.
01:14 They are the number one most efficient rushing attack in the NFL, despite playing the number
01:19 one highest rate of heavy boxes.
01:21 And I went back and looked through True Media data all the way back to 2000.
01:25 There's not a single other team since 2000 that has had as much success running the football
01:32 against this many heavy boxes at the rate that the San Francisco 49ers have faced.
01:37 So they've been outstanding.
01:38 They haven't played a very difficult schedule of run defenses, but they've been outstanding.
01:43 You can only play who is on your schedule.
01:45 They've run the ball against these guys in a very creative manner.
01:49 That is a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs defense.
01:51 It's against the run.
01:53 Most of the people that I've talked to on Radio Row this week, the biggest thing that
01:58 they feel the most confident about in this game is that Christian McCaffrey is going
02:02 to have a good game.
02:03 Everybody's like, "Well, yeah, of course, Christian McCaffrey is going to have a good
02:05 game.
02:06 The best running offense in the NFL going up against a run defense that really struggles."
02:10 I have looked into some things and I have found that while the Kansas City Chiefs have
02:16 struggled defending the run, they actually have played really good, like top 15 above
02:22 average against elite rushing attacks.
02:25 They've played eight top 10 run offenses and they have got stats against those guys that
02:30 would rank 13th to 14th in the NFL from a run defense perspective.
02:34 We also know that Christian McCaffrey, these guys are going to run a lot out of 21 personnel.
02:39 The Kansas City Chiefs have been very bad defending two running back sets.
02:43 Those running backs have had a lot of success.
02:45 But where those running backs have had the most success is on interior runs, like inside
02:49 zone type runs or fullback lead runs up the gut.
02:54 That is where the Kansas City Chiefs have been bad.
02:56 Kansas City Chiefs actually are almost a fringe top 10 run defense, about like 10 to 12, when
03:03 teams run outside zone from 21 personnel.
03:07 That is the calling card, the staple.
03:08 It's what the San Francisco 49ers with McCaffrey do more than anything.
03:12 They run outside zone to the perimeter.
03:14 The Kansas City Chiefs actually haven't been total garbage against that.
03:18 I think there is a world in this game where we need to start thinking, and this is how
03:22 I've been betting some props, we need to start accepting that there could be an alternate
03:27 reality here where McCaffrey has a fine game, an okay game, but not an elite game.
03:34 He's not 100 out of 100 in this game.
03:36 Maybe he's 79 out of 100.
03:38 Still pretty good, still capable of moving the football, but it will take a little bit
03:43 longer.
03:44 They have to be perfect in more areas to move the ball down the field.
03:47 In that world, I think it gives Kansas City a little bit more of an advantage than some
03:51 people think.
03:52 [MUSIC]
03:54 (upbeat music)