Melirik Cuan dari Investasi Surat Berharga Negara
Pasar obligasi sepanjang 2024 masih akan berpeluang mengalami peningkatan kinerja seiring dengan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Pun Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) akan memiliki peningkatan daya tarik bagi para investor.
Kepala Departemen Riset dan Informasi Pasar PT Penilai Harga Efek Indonesia (PHEI) Roby Rushandie mengatakan, saat ini pasar masih akan mencermati kebijakan dovish The Fed. Pasar yang wait and see juga mempertimbangkan Pemilu Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat serta eskalasi konflik Timur Tengah. Menurut Roby, prospek pasar obligasi tahun ini berpeluang mengalami kenaikan kinerja jika bank sentral menurunkan suku bunga acuan.
Obligasi negara atau SBN juga akan menarik perhatian investor terlebih peringkat surat utang RI diperkirakan masih bertahan seiring dengan stabilnya outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan masih tingginya risiko eksternal yang dapat berpengaruh terhadap kondisi APBN.
Kepala Departemen Riset dan Informasi Pasar PT Penilai Harga Efek Indonesia (PHEI) Roby Rushandie mengatakan, saat ini pasar masih akan mencermati kebijakan dovish The Fed. Pasar yang wait and see juga mempertimbangkan Pemilu Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat serta eskalasi konflik Timur Tengah. Menurut Roby, prospek pasar obligasi tahun ini berpeluang mengalami kenaikan kinerja jika bank sentral menurunkan suku bunga acuan.
Obligasi negara atau SBN juga akan menarik perhatian investor terlebih peringkat surat utang RI diperkirakan masih bertahan seiring dengan stabilnya outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan masih tingginya risiko eksternal yang dapat berpengaruh terhadap kondisi APBN.
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TVTranscript
00:00 [music]
00:07 [music]
00:27 [music]
00:31 Indonesia's PHI's value of the obligation market will increase in 2024
00:36 and there will be a chance for the growth of the economy
00:39 along with the potential of the reduction of the number of brokers by the central bank.
00:42 This is the state value of the letter
00:45 which is expected to increase the interest rate for investors.
00:48 The head of the department of research and information of the PHI market, Robby Rusandi said
00:53 the market is still under the influence of the Dovis-Dovet policy.
00:56 The wet and sea market also affects the Indonesian and US voters
00:59 as well as the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
01:02 The PHI assesses the obligation of the state or SBN will also attract the attention of investors.
01:07 Moreover, the level of the Indonesian debt is estimated to still maintain a stable steering
01:10 for the growth of the economy
01:13 and the external risk can still be high depending on the condition of the APBN.
01:17 Robby explained that SBN with a short tenor is a safety from the risk of steering
01:20 with still high uncertainty.
01:23 While SBN with a long tenor to get a high yield chance
01:26 in the middle of the production of economic slowdown.
01:29 Meanwhile, the US Central Bank or Dovet last week decided
01:32 to re-sustain the level of the brokerage at 5.25% to 5.50%.
01:37 This decision was made because it is not yet certain that inflation can reach the 2% target
01:41 although it is now starting to hit.
01:45 To maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%
01:50 and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings.
01:55 We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle
02:00 and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected,
02:03 it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.
02:09 Dovet also gave a signal that the rate of inflation will not drop in the near future.
02:13 Jerome Powell said that the flowering of the flowering tribe is not planned to be done in March.
02:18 Various sources for IDX Juneau.
02:21 Yes, the Prime Minister is very much discussing our topic this time.
02:27 Lyrical from the investment of state-valued letters has been connected through Zoom
02:31 together with Mas Roby Rusandi.
02:33 He is the head of the Research and Information Department of the Indonesian PHA Price Evaluation Department.
02:39 Yes, hello, good morning Mas Roby.
02:42 Yes, hello, good morning Mas Peras.
02:44 Okay, greetings, Mas.
02:46 Yes, greetings to you too, Mas.
02:48 Thank you for the opportunity, Mas Roby.
02:51 If we talk about the state-valued letter market, we will review first.
02:56 How is the journey, the performance over the past year?
02:59 Is it in line with the expectations of the market players in this industry?
03:03 Yes, okay.
03:06 So if we look at the Indonesian debt market, especially the state-valued letters,
03:11 in 2023, it was able to record a positive return.
03:16 Based on the total return index, ICBI's composite index increased by about 8%.
03:24 And the return index achievement is higher than in 2022, which only recorded about 3%.
03:32 So actually, if you ask whether it is in line with the market expectations,
03:37 it is still in line, but if you compare it to the expectations in early 2023,
03:44 it seems that the market expects a higher return.
03:48 So there is a slight shift between the realization and the market expectations.
03:55 Okay, so it's just a little bit, you can say that, Mas Roby, the growth.
04:01 Yes, although it's better, the market expectations can be higher than 8%.
04:06 Because at the beginning of the year, the market has been colored or
04:12 there are many sentiments of expectations about the peak of the flower rate from the Fed.
04:19 However, in terms of time development in 2023,
04:23 inflation is still increasing, and in fact, the Fed is still increasing its flow rate in 2023.
04:32 That's what pushed the market expectations down in 2023.
04:39 So that's why in terms of return, it still recorded a single digit, about 8%.
04:45 Okay, now talk about the development of the domestic and global economic situation.
04:51 How is the impact related to the SBN market that we can learn from this year 2023, Mas Roby?
05:00 Yes, in terms of economic development, of course, it is very much reflected by the market.
05:05 So, especially the flower rate from the Fed,
05:09 this is what is always reflected by the market players in the obligation market,
05:16 then also inflation, and of course the exchange rate,
05:21 the exchange rate of US dollars, because foreign currencies still play a role in the SBN market.
05:30 So, the variables are very much seen by the market,
05:37 such as the Fed Fund Rate.
05:39 The Fed Fund Rate reflects how the development of the labor market in America,
05:45 then also non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, retail sales,
05:51 those are indicators that are the driving force of the Fed,
05:56 what the policy will be like.
05:58 That's what I observed that the market is looking at the variables or indicators of the macro.
06:05 Okay, so how is your projection related to the SBN market in 2024?
06:10 Will it be better than in 2023 or will the challenge be greater?
06:17 Yes, so in 2024, I see it as interesting like this,
06:24 so this can be a momentum or this is a deja vu.
06:30 Because the market is faced by a similar situation at the beginning of 2023,
06:37 where there is hope that the central bank will reduce the flower rate.
06:43 And that also happened again this year,
06:47 where there is hope that the central bank will reduce the flower rate in 2024.
06:51 Because this was triggered by the FOMC meeting at the end of last year,
06:57 that the Fed gave a chance to reduce the flower rate, 2-3 times this year.
07:03 Since then, there has been a rally at the end of the year,
07:08 both in the RRP market and in the stock market.
07:12 So the market is even more confident than the Fed.
07:15 So if the Fed's prediction was 2-3 times, the market can be 5-6 times.
07:20 So this overconfidence factor is similar at the beginning of 2023.
07:26 So if I estimate, volatility in the market is still possible,
07:35 most likely, because there is a difference between the market expectations
07:40 and what the Fed signals.
07:43 And then also, since the beginning of this year,
07:49 the confidence market has started to decline.
07:53 So the market expected 5-6 times the flower rate reduction,
07:58 this week it's even 4-5 times.
08:02 So there are starting to be cynical signals from the market.
08:06 In addition to some data on inflation that is still sustainable.
08:12 Then there is also a geopolitical factor, which is also an uncertainty factor
08:17 that I think still threatens the market in 2024.
08:20 Although there is still a chance for the market to record a positive return.
08:25 If the Fed at least reduces the flower rate by 1-2 times.
08:29 Yes, that's it. So it's still waiting,
08:31 like the central bank policy in the United States,
08:35 which will give an impact or pressure,
08:38 if we look at the market obligations in Indonesia.
08:41 So how? Is it an external or internal factor
08:46 that will dominate, determine the direction of the SBN market this year, Mr. Roby?
08:51 Yes, if I estimate it more to the external.
08:56 Because first, the Fed will still be in the spotlight.
09:01 Second, there are also events that increase uncertainty,
09:06 such as geopolitical events.
09:08 This geopolitical event also pushes the market's expectation
09:15 that inflation will continue.
09:18 There is even concern that there will be a second inflation bubble
09:23 because of the geopolitical factor.
09:25 And then there are also political factors, such as the voters.
09:30 First, this year there are U.S. voters.
09:34 And also voters in many countries in 2024.
09:40 So how interesting is it if we invest in the SBN in Indonesia
09:45 and how big a profit can be made for the investors?
09:48 We will discuss later in the next segment, Mr. Roby.
09:51 We will take a break.
09:53 Stay with us.
09:55 [Music]
10:10 You are still watching Market Review, viewers.
10:13 We will be back with a number of data for you
10:15 related to the offer of the Retail State Award in 2024.
10:20 We see that there are several SBNs that will be offered to the public
10:25 or to the SBN investors in Indonesia.
10:28 The first is the Retail State Award, R25.
10:31 The date of the offer is the tentative deadline
10:35 because the government will determine it later.
10:37 January 29 to February 22.
10:41 Then the Retail Stakeholder or SR24 to March 27.
10:45 There is the Stakeholder of the State of St12 Savings,
10:48 Savings Bonds Retail, SBR13.
10:51 Then SWR5, Retail Stakeholder.
10:55 Retail State Obligation 26, R26 will also be offered again.
10:59 Then the Stakeholder of the State of St13 Savings in December.
11:03 So January to December there are about 8 SBNs that will be offered in 2024.
11:13 Next, we look at the ownership of the SBN by the individual.
11:17 We will compare the data from 2014 to 2023.
11:22 From the ownership percentage, 2.51% in 2014,
11:28 then increased to 7.71% in 2023.
11:33 From the number or nominal value, 30.41 trillion,
11:38 then jumped to 435.05 trillion rupiah in 2023.
11:45 This is an extraordinary leap for the ownership of the SBN by the individual.
11:51 Next, the State Value Letter Investor, what is the composition like?
11:55 The institution is only about 2%, then the individual has dominated,
12:01 98% data per November 2023.
12:06 Next, the total SBN allocation,
12:10 you can see the complete data on the television screen.
12:13 From 2020 to 2023,
12:18 77 trillion, 97.2 trillion, 107 trillion, and 147.4 trillion
12:26 from the total SBN allocation in 2023.
12:31 We will continue the discussion with Mas Roby Rusandi,
12:34 Head of the Research and Information Department of PHEI.
12:38 Mas Roby, we will continue again.
12:40 Some data has been mentioned,
12:43 interesting in 2024 there will be some more SBN retail
12:47 that will be distributed by the government.
12:49 What is the concept, potential, and opportunity of this market?
12:54 Retail is one of the potential basis of investors
13:01 in the past few years.
13:03 So, in terms of potential this year,
13:08 I think it is still very potential for retail.
13:12 First, because in terms of return or coupon,
13:16 it is now attractive.
13:19 Then, from the risk side, it is also low, very low.
13:24 And from the tax side, it is also lower than the deposit.
13:30 Then, especially in a condition that is still colored with uncertainty like this,
13:37 and investors who tend to be conservative or careful,
13:43 it is certainly a choice, like a state obligation.
13:47 And in this case, it is a retail investor.
13:50 I think in 2024, this retail investor will still increase.
13:55 Because if you look at the data,
13:57 this retail investor has a good production from year to year.
14:04 Especially since the pandemic.
14:08 Yes, the front-loading scheme,
14:10 do you think this will still be done by the government in 2024?
14:14 Because we know that there is also a transition to national leadership here.
14:18 Will this still be consistent with the various steps that have been taken by the government?
14:24 Yes, I think the government will still apply the front-loading scheme from year to year.
14:29 Because this is an ideal strategy for the government to absorb SBN.
14:37 And it is very risky when the government needs funds at the end.
14:43 So it's better to collect it at the beginning,
14:46 to be big at the beginning, and also to anticipate the future risks.
14:52 And for now, in terms of demand,
14:57 it is also estimated to be high for state-owned instruments.
15:03 So this is also a momentum that the government uses to collect SBN.
15:10 Like earlier, it was a successful investment.
15:13 It's quite interesting, quite attractive.
15:17 Okay, from the attractive coupon side, the lowest tax compared to the deposit,
15:22 this is one of the plus values.
15:24 So how is it related to the high-risk flowering era?
15:27 As we said earlier, the FED is still one of the reference.
15:30 How about the flowering rate in Indonesia?
15:35 How interesting is it?
15:36 Yes, Indonesia's flowering rate does have a chance to go down.
15:43 So, as indicated by the Bank of Indonesia,
15:48 it is possible to have a second semester.
15:52 But the decline is not only once or twice,
15:57 if it happens in the most likely scenario.
16:01 Why? Because even though the inflation is still under control,
16:07 the inflation in Indonesia is still under control and targeted by the Bank of Indonesia,
16:11 but from the external side, the risk is still high.
16:15 From the exchange rate side.
16:17 That's what affects the Bank of Indonesia's decision to
16:21 whether to hold the flowering rate or not,
16:24 I think it's the external factor that is the main consideration.
16:28 What about the interest of the investors in 2024?
16:32 Will it be as good as in 2023?
16:36 And you said that the retail investors are still showing an amazing growth trend.
16:42 I think the interest of the investors will still be good in 2024.
16:48 There is a potential for the investors to take a high yield momentum in the mid-long term.
16:56 That phenomenon has actually been reflected in the fourth quarter of 2023,
17:02 where investors took a position in the long term.
17:07 Why? Because there is an expectation that inflation will go down,
17:10 so the economy will slow down.
17:12 So, the long term has the potential to give an interesting return.
17:19 Meanwhile, for the short term,
17:23 some investors or market players will still be active in trading.
17:33 The short term is an anticipation of risk or uncertainty.
17:40 Usually, if the uncertainty is high, the short term is the choice.
17:45 So, in 2024, it's quite interesting to allocate the investment.
17:51 There is a possibility of a balance between short and long term.
17:55 So, the short term is for risk anticipation,
17:58 and the long term is to get a high return.
18:03 Because the projection is as high as the Fed.
18:08 Okay, so the interest will still be profitable for SBN investors,
18:16 because in 2024, there will be more diversification and more distribution of SBN investment.
18:23 For the short term, medium, and long term,
18:26 it means that the understanding of the SBN investors' maturity in Indonesia is getting more mature.
18:31 Yes, I think so.
18:34 Especially in this high-yield era,
18:38 it's actually an opportunity or momentum for investors to enter the debt market.
18:46 Especially in the middle of high uncertainty.
18:49 Especially for the long term tenors.
18:53 Indeed, in the bond market, there are two main types, two major market players.
19:00 There are those who hold to maturity or buy and hold.
19:05 There are also those who are active in trading.
19:08 Those who buy and hold will probably take this high-yield momentum to enter the medium-long term.
19:15 Because the trading is more towards the short term.
19:20 I think that's it.
19:22 Okay, so what do you think about this, Mr. Tribu,
19:25 related to the contribution of SBN in the portion of national debt allocation?
19:31 Yes, SBN is still the government's pillar to cover the deficit of APBN.
19:38 Okay.
19:39 And if you look at APBN 2024,
19:43 the government estimates the deficit is quite low.
19:48 It has fallen from 2.29% in 2002.
19:53 And the realization last year was even lower.
19:57 So, the government is indeed seen to maintain or manage the fiscal in the year of transition,
20:06 in the year of 2024.
20:08 Okay, so the potential is still great for our SBN market in 2024.
20:15 And the potential of the deposit that can be raised by SBN investors is still quite large.
20:20 By taking advantage of the short-term tenors, the long-term tenors that are open.
20:25 There will be eight SBN retail in 2024.
20:30 Mr. Roby, thank you very much for your time and sharing that you have conveyed to the audience today.
20:35 Congratulations on continuing your activities.
20:37 Best wishes.
20:38 Mr. Roby, thank you.
20:39 Thank you, Mr. Raz.
20:41 Okay, audience, it's been an hour.
20:44 I'm with you in Market Review.
20:46 I'm Prasetya Wibowo,
20:47 along with the staff who are on duty.
20:50 Thank you and see you.
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