A warning is in place for areas between Ayr and Sarina, including Mackay, with winds expected to reach 64km/h+. The system is expected to cross the coast on Thursday, January 25, 2024, as a category 2.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Tropical cyclone warnings are now current between Eyre and Serena and we've had a
00:04 bit of a delay in tropical cyclone development but we're likely to see it
00:08 develop into a cyclone later tonight. So why is that? Well there's been a few
00:13 reasons why. Yesterday we did mention that dry air wrapping on the western
00:17 side donated by this orange area and that's wrapped right into the
00:20 circulation seen here by the low-pressure symbol and that has
00:24 hindered development overnight. The other reason is while we have good outflow on
00:28 the southern side of the system we need good outflow on the northern side as
00:32 well and that helps ventilation of the system once those thunderstorms develop.
00:36 But due to the lack of thunderstorm development and a lack of stronger
00:40 outflow on the northern side combined with that dry air that has led to
00:44 continuation in the delay of becoming a tropical cyclone. But once these
00:49 conditions improve which look to happen during today and into tonight we're
00:53 likely to see it develop into a tropical cyclone tonight. So for that reason we
00:58 do have a cyclone warnings current between Eyre and Serena and that does
01:03 include Mackay, Bowen and the Whitsunday Islands. While watch areas extend further
01:08 north. Now this means if you live in these orange areas you could experience
01:11 winds gusting to 64 kilometres an hour or greater in the next 12 to 24 hours.
01:17 And we're likely to see this area extend further northwards as we move through
01:20 the tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow. Now looking at the current
01:24 track map we're likely to become a tropical cyclone sometime tonight into
01:28 the early hours of tomorrow morning as a category 1 system and then we expect it
01:33 to further intensify as it moves towards the southwest crossing the coast as a
01:37 category 2 system late Thursday night into the early hours of Friday between
01:42 that Townsville to Eyre locations. And in those areas we could see winds gusting
01:48 to 120 kilometres an hour with damaging to destructive winds that could bring
01:52 damage to homes properties and businesses widespread heavy rainfall
01:57 that could lead to flash and riverine flooding and we can also see some of the
02:01 locations south of the cyclone could approach the highest astronomical tide
02:05 of the year as well as it crosses. Then we expect it to
02:10 weaken rapidly as it moves inland bringing widespread heavy rain for our
02:14 inland communities. So let's look at that in a little more detail. So once this
02:19 system moves through now this is just one scenario we're lucky we've got
02:22 pretty good confidence that we're lucky to see it crossing in that Townsville to
02:25 Eyre locations Thursday night into Friday morning but then as it moves
02:29 inland there's a bit of uncertainty on exactly where it will travel and what it
02:33 will do. In this scenario it brings widespread heavy rainfall to northern
02:37 and central parts of Queensland on Friday and Saturday and that could
02:41 continue into Sunday and Monday through western parts of Queensland as well. While
02:45 some other guidance has it moving more down through central parts for those in
02:49 central inland parts in Queensland it's important that you stay up to date of
02:53 the latest forecasts and warnings as this system moves inland. So for those
02:57 right on the coast and those inland we'll continue to keep you updated here
03:01 at the Bureau via our website app and social media. Track maps will be issued
03:05 every three hours and as always stay up to date the latest advice from all
03:09 emergency services.
03:12 (gentle music)