Why Newcastle Can’t Defend Anymore And How To Fix It
Out of Europe and falling down the Premier League, Newcastle United's season is in serious danger of falling apart. But as they continue to grow as a football club in the long term, Manchester City's Kalvin Phillips could offer them some solutions in the short term.
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00:00 First things first, they're tired. Now if you're any Castle fans, don't close the video, I know you're so sick of hearing the words
00:07 "They are tired" shouldn't really excuse the level of performances, but it's worth pointing out that tiredness and a lack of energy
00:14 impacts Newcastle United in a way it wouldn't normally impact another team. Newcastle are one of very few teams who have their most
00:22 important creative player this deep in the side. Bruno Gimaraes,
00:27 everything goes through him whether it's from the back or whether it's in the final third and he plays as the deep six. And in
00:33 practice what that means is that when he pushes up into the attacking part of the pitch it forces all the other
00:38 midfield and wide players to go up with him. The right-sided attacker usually Almaron will go into the middle somewhere,
00:45 they get the width from Kieran Trippier and even when they do have sustained spells of possession here, Dan Byrne,
00:50 I can't reach him, he'll go and join in there as well. And what Newcastle try and do in the final third is they'll get
00:55 some sort of interplay between these three players in the wide areas, the centre forward will stay nice and central and Bruno will kind of
01:01 float from left to right as and where he feels he needs to be. Now this leaves them
01:06 incredibly open because your number six here should really be
01:09 watching this space in case the ball gets turned over. If they lose it,
01:12 they have to be the one who wins that back, stops counter-attacks happening in the centre of the pitch.
01:17 But that's not Bruno's game and it's not Bruno's job, but it's not what he's supposed to do.
01:21 He's supposed to float and get involved and it's usually one of the other eights, long staff,
01:26 who's supposed to kind of like watch that and cover over when he needs to. But that is an incredibly risky way to play your football
01:33 because the person in the position where you're supposed to have all the defensive sense is told not to have any defensive sense and you're
01:40 relying on someone else just happening to be there when they're not doing this other job.
01:45 But the reason this worked last season was because if you heard Eddie Howe talk about
01:49 intensity is our identity, he wasn't talking about like getting it up them and winning the ball back high.
01:54 He was talking about their ability to make recovery runs when they lose the ball. When this sort of thing did break down for Newcastle,
02:01 rather than them just getting constantly flooded on the counter-attack every single week, all their three midfielders and their wide attackers would
02:08 break their necks to get back in. The thing is, it's really, really hard to play this way
02:14 and if you're not 100%, if you're feeling a little bit tired, if you're nursing a small injury
02:18 or you're just coming back from one, it's almost impossible to do that for 90 minutes.
02:22 So having one or two injuries in the squad is fine, but when you've had like 14 players
02:26 constantly coming in and out, nobody really being back at their levels because of the
02:31 intensity of the games and the frequency of the fixtures, this whole system has just collapsed.
02:36 Thank you for watching this and you are a Newcastle United fan, you remember Chris Wood,
02:40 you know exactly how fast he can run. Last season,
02:43 three or four players would have stopped those counter-attacks before they even got to the halfway line, but this season,
02:48 they just physically couldn't do it, they couldn't keep up. Now,
02:52 I will say that tiredness is the big issue and once that stops being an issue,
02:56 you'll stop seeing as many of these issues. This whole
02:58 absurd attacking situation here is part of the growing pains Newcastle United are experiencing.
03:05 You see, the thing is, right, most quote-unquote "big teams", which Newcastle obviously aspire to be,
03:10 don't play like this with their most creative player in their deepest midfield role.
03:15 And that's because either if you do play like this, you end up massively over-committing, leaving yourself very vulnerable
03:20 to counter-attacks, or if you do what Newcastle do sometimes do, and that's sort of leave Dan Byrne back
03:25 and then they shuffle across into a three, you can see here, you become massively imbalanced on that side,
03:30 you're a player short. And this isn't me saying that the problem is Bruno, by the way, playing Bruno
03:36 exactly like this is what got them into the top four in the first place. The problem is
03:40 every other team in the Premier League. Last season, especially in the first half of it,
03:45 most teams didn't really take Newcastle seriously as one of the best sides in the league.
03:50 They certainly thought they were going to have improved off last season with the money they'd spent,
03:53 but they were still turning up at St. James's Park and thinking, "Yeah, we could play these."
03:57 And then, as I'm sure you remember, it turned out Newcastle were absolutely f***ing mint.
04:01 And then all of a sudden, teams turned up at St. James's Park and stopped trying to play them.
04:06 In fact, you'll no doubt remember a succession of incredibly frustrating home draws,
04:10 where teams just basically turned up trying to strangle a point out of the match,
04:14 and questions were being asked about how Newcastle were going to adapt.
04:17 At the time, they wanted to press the opposition really high and win the ball back up here,
04:21 but the opposition weren't having the ball back here. They weren't allowing that to happen.
04:25 So Newcastle had to become one of these possession teams.
04:28 That's why if you look at their average possession this season, which is like slightly over 55%,
04:33 and their average possession last season, which is pretty much bang on 50%,
04:37 you can see they're having to have a lot more of the ball, because teams are a lot more defensive against them.
04:42 And while you might be sitting there thinking, "5%? Is that really that much?"
04:45 Well, on the one hand, it does take you from being in the sort of the same bracket as like your Fulhams and your Wolves,
04:51 to being in the same sort of bracket as your Chelseas and your Tottenham. So there is a difference.
04:55 But if instead of looking at this as two whole seasons, we look at it as three groups of half a season,
05:00 you can see Newcastle spent the first half of last season seeing considerably less of the ball.
05:05 And now they're seeing even more of it again, as fewer and fewer teams try to play an open attacking game,
05:10 and instead look to sit back and hit Newcastle on the counter when they over-commit players forward.
05:17 And that is why, as was brilliantly pointed out by @editkev on Twitter this week,
05:21 that Newcastle have conceded more chances from counter-attacks than any other team in the Premier League.
05:28 And this video is about Calvin Phillips at some point, I absolutely promise,
05:31 but the brutal reality of what Newcastle are going through right now is they're forced to over-commit
05:36 this many players forward because they still haven't got the quality throughout the side in attacking areas
05:43 of the teams they're supposed to be competing with.
05:45 It really didn't look like it last season because of that intensity.
05:49 When they did lose the ball, they were winning it back so easily,
05:51 they looked like they were dominating these games, but it was still this high-risk system.
05:56 It's just that the thing that saves that high-risk system is the running, is the intensity,
06:01 is the determination to win the ball back.
06:03 And why the tiredness matters so much is because it's robbed them of that.
06:08 And what that leaves you with is a team for whom playing this way is borderline suicidal.
06:14 So yes, anyway, sorry, Calvin Phillips, that's why you clicked on this video, right?
06:18 Would he solve these problems for Newcastle United?
06:21 Well, short answer, yes, with an if.
06:25 Long answer, no, with a but.
06:27 Fundamentally, Calvin Phillips is unlike any other player Newcastle United currently have.
06:32 They've got a number of players who are good in the tackle, like we discussed already.
06:35 They will work back when they're able to and stop things happening that way,
06:39 but they haven't got anyone in that midfield who's got that kind of defensive radar brain,
06:44 who'll stop things happening before they become a problem,
06:46 who patrol areas before the opposition get into it.
06:48 And again, while they're a team that moves the ball around really well,
06:51 you wouldn't say there's like an expert long passer anywhere in that midfield.
06:55 Like, Longstaff hits the flanks very well, Bruno's got an excellent switch of play in his locker,
07:00 but when was the last time you saw either of those players sort of get in a really deep area
07:05 and create a chance from it?
07:06 And finally, and most obviously, there is nobody in that midfield
07:09 who will either just sit in front of the back four or even be able to drop and make it a three.
07:14 Calvin Phillips is, massive big asterisk behind me,
07:18 probably the outstanding player in the Premier League at combining all three of those attributes.
07:23 In terms of his long passing, he's miles ahead of anyone in that squad, including Bruno.
07:27 And defensively, whether it's positionally or physically in the tackle,
07:31 he brings a level of steeliness and understanding that Newcastle are completely lacking right now.
07:36 But I think the reason why in particular they're interested in Phillips
07:39 is there are a number of defensive midfielders with similar kind of profiles
07:42 who could go and do that for Newcastle.
07:45 But Phillips has something else in his locker, which I think makes him really important to them.
07:49 And that is, as anybody who watched him at Leeds United or remembers him in the Euros for England
07:53 that time will tell you, he's actually really good as a box-to-box midfielder as well.
07:58 Like, just to show you his sort of like, danger numbers, whatever you want to call them.
08:02 These won't look particularly impressive,
08:03 but that's when compared to all the midfielders in the Premier League.
08:06 Like, if you just compared him to other number sixes, to other defensive midfielders,
08:11 he is light years ahead of the rest of them.
08:13 Which means, crucially for Newcastle, you would then have an option.
08:16 Like, in certain game situations, you could have Phillips sitting in front of the back four
08:20 and you could push Bruno into the number eight.
08:21 But Newcastle really, really do like to have Bruno receive the ball in that sixth position
08:27 to do all the build-up.
08:29 And you would still be able to do that.
08:31 You'd be able to swap them seamlessly.
08:33 Phillips would be more than happy to make that sort of late Sean Longstaff run into the box
08:37 to play with Trippier and Almiron on this side to create chances.
08:40 But were the threat of a counter-attack too big because you pushed up so high,
08:44 you can just swap them round and Phillips will just patrol this sort of area.
08:48 They'll not be going through him for all their chance creation.
08:51 So he's free to sort of make them less open.
08:55 And what that would mean by extension is when you're wide attack
08:57 is they can both get in to play with the centre forward.
09:00 You'll still get that width from Trippier.
09:02 It means you don't need to have someone like Dan Byrne on the side
09:05 who can adapt to be in the back three.
09:07 You can just have a full back whose job is to get up and support.
09:11 And then when everybody's pushed up,
09:12 because this is just who Newcastle have to be now,
09:14 they're going to see so much of the ball,
09:16 all of a sudden your central area is not a glaring weak spot.
09:20 It's a massive strength.
09:21 Now, I would love to say that's the end,
09:23 but you may recall this enormous asterisk from just a few moments ago.
09:27 All of those Calvin Phillips numbers you've just seen are from the 2020/2021 season.
09:34 They are two and a half years old.
09:36 Now, there are two ways of looking at that, right?
09:39 Either A, the last time he had a full season in a team
09:41 where he was trusted and he was playing every week,
09:44 he was brilliant.
09:45 Or he hasn't done any of that for two and a half seasons
09:50 and there's absolutely zero guarantee he'd be able to do it now.
09:54 So glass half full or glass half full,
09:58 but of some kind of runny boxing dish.
10:00 So just to try and wrap this all up in a nice package for you,
10:04 Newcastle's current problems, they will get better
10:08 because when the onus is on them to play this sort of possession football,
10:11 when the fixture list lightens and they get players back from injury,
10:14 they'll be able to re-add the intensity required to stop them being so open.
10:18 So that's good.
10:19 But on the other hand, as they continue to develop as a club
10:22 and fewer and fewer teams give them any space to play in,
10:25 the onus is going to be on them to play this way more and more and more.
10:29 So perversely, a disaster, the like of which they had against Nottingham Forest,
10:34 will happen a lot less.
10:36 But at the same time, the probability of it happening will go up.
10:41 Unless, of course, they were to add the 2021 version of Calvin Phillips
10:46 or somebody like him, like the 2023 version of Calvin Phillips, maybe,
10:51 into this squad.
10:52 You can have all the money and all the good attacking players in the world.
10:55 You still need a Rodri.
10:57 You still need a Declan Rice.
10:58 You still need, let's go back in time, Fabinho.
11:01 You still need a Casemiro, the Real Madrid's Casemiro.
11:05 And I know Eddie Howe has already done a thing today where he's been like,
11:07 "Oh, well, it's FFP, so I don't really know if we're interested in Calvin Phillips."
11:10 And I wouldn't really say number six is a priority.
11:13 If you are a Newcastle fan that still believes a single word
11:16 that comes out of the club's mouth during a transfer window,
11:19 I have some magic beans you may also be interested in.
11:22 Trust me, they have spoken to Calvin Phillips and they have spoken to Manchester City.
11:27 And that does not necessarily mean the deal is going to happen.
11:30 It just means that they wanted to, for reasons.
11:34 Anyway, I hope you had a nice Christmas.
11:35 And depending on when you watch this video, I also hope you have a happy New Year.
11:38 4/4/2 in 2024 is going to be some fun thing.
11:44 You may have noticed we've recently sort of changed filming areas.
11:46 This is going to get bigger and better and more exciting,
11:48 and I cannot wait to show you all.
11:50 But for now, I'm going to take my first two days off of the festive season.
11:53 And then it's my birthday the week after that.
11:55 So God knows what's going to happen.
11:57 But until then, yeah, up the lads, away the mags, and I'll see you soon.
12:03 Goodbye.