Tembus Level Psikologis 7.400, IHSG Kembali ATH

IDXchannel

IHSG masih menguat 0,24% ke 7.377,5 Jumat (5/1/2024) setelah sukses kembali menembus level ATH. Sektor transportasi dan logistik melesat 0,81%, Keuangan melonjak 0,68% di topang saham Perbankan Big Caps dengan BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, dan BBNI yang kompak kembali menembus level ATH.  Dari global, S&P 500 dan Nasdaq Composite berakhir di zona merah Kamis, memperpanjang penurunan beruntun 2024. Pelemahan terjadi di tengah risalah rapat kebijakan Desember The Fed, tidak memberikan banyak petunjuk kapan pelonggaran suku bunga akan dimulai.

Transcript

00:00 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:02 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:04 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:06 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:08 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:10 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:12 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:14 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:16 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:18 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:20 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:22 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:24 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:26 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:28 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:30 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:32 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:34 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:36 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:38 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:40 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:42 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:44 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:46 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:48 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:50 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:52 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:54 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:56 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

00:58 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:00 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:02 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:04 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:06 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:08 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:10 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:12 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:14 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:16 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:18 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:20 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:22 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:24 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:26 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:28 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:30 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:32 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:34 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:36 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:38 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:40 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:42 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:44 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:46 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:48 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:50 [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH]

01:52 help them to get to the level 7400.

01:54 Ok, so intra-day, during the trading session today, the Samkabungan index is weakening to 7354.

02:02 Is the level of support still safe for the Samkabungan index?

02:07 Is it still a fairly normal weakness?

02:10 Yes, it's very normal for it to go there.

02:14 For me, even until it reaches the 7260 level, it's still a normal area.

02:19 Where the support area was formed in June 2022.

02:25 Direction for next week, Mr. Filip, is the position of the Samkabungan index already bought?

02:32 On the other hand, investors are still waiting for the release of the labor data on Friday night,

02:37 at West Indonesia time, to see the direction of the Sukubunga to Fed policy in the future.

02:42 Yes, this all depends on some policies that will be issued later.

02:47 If the Sukubunga is indeed lowered, of course this will have a very good impact on all sectors,

02:52 which will cause a great possibility that we will experience another breakout on Monday trading.

02:58 However, if we pay attention, if we talk technically,

03:02 if we look at the stochastic, it has shown a very good chance of buying in the IHSG.

03:07 So if there is no sentiment that can support or push these emittances,

03:12 we will most likely experience a minor correction next week.

03:17 The Samkabungan index is supported by several sectors that are quite attractive from finance.

03:24 In the last two days, Samsam Banking BKB has managed to reach its highest level in history,

03:31 as well as several BKB banks that have done stock splits a while ago.

03:36 Foreign investors are quite keen to enter Samsam Banking BKB.

03:40 We will try to review the projections for the future.

03:43 I want to go to the BBRI first.

03:45 Mr. Filip, how is your analysis?

03:47 Technically, today, the intraday all-time high throughout history is also at 58.50.

03:53 However, in the closing of the second session,

03:55 the strength is more towards the limit, following the direction of the Samkabungan index.

03:59 Yes, we pay attention to the all-time high at 58.50.

04:03 So, if we can say, it is the IHSG that follows the movements of the BBRI itself.

04:08 If we pay attention, this also shows an overbought.

04:12 If we look at it from the stochastic perspective,

04:15 we can see that the candle formation that happened today,

04:18 the formation of the shooting star candle,

04:20 has the potential to be corrected below,

04:23 because in fact, the BBRI has not yet closed above the 5,800 level.

04:28 However, if we pay attention,

04:30 the cause of the sentiment of the increase is likely

04:33 because of the impressive financial report in 2023.

04:37 Because the consistent increase,

04:39 although not as significant as the increase from 2021 to 2022.

04:43 However, if we pay attention, there is a great tendency for correction,

04:47 especially if we pay attention to the fact that the flower family will stay,

04:52 or the possibility of staying will likely be corrected.

04:55 But from the side of the full year BKBB,

04:58 for these four stocks, is it still quite positive?

05:02 Yes, it's still positive.

05:04 We can see that BCA, BRI, BMRI,

05:07 we see that all their earnings per share are strong enough.

05:10 This is a good year for the bank,

05:13 because we are also experiencing an economic recovery.

05:15 So, banking is still one of the biggest drivers.

05:21 - Okay, also prepared for the dividend distribution,

05:23 because some admitents,

05:25 BKBB has already distributed the interim dividends,

05:27 then there are also those who have not.

05:29 We move on to the next BKBB.

05:31 Mr. Philip, I want to go to BMRI, the independent bank of Persero Tebeka.

05:34 Today also experienced significant growth,

05:37 the all-time high was back to 6475.

05:40 What is your analysis for BMRI?

05:41 - For BMRI, the breakout happened yesterday

05:46 when it broke out from 6200.

05:48 It broke out from 6200.

05:50 This is for BMRI itself,

05:53 forming the same pattern in all banking,

05:55 where we notice that it is already very profitable.

05:58 It's already very profitable, but it's not impossible to increase again,

06:01 remembering that there are some sentiments that can support,

06:05 for example, like Sukubunga earlier.

06:06 - Okay, the nearest resistance will be touched by BMRI, Mr. Philip?

06:12 - Yes, the easiest one is in the psychological resistance level,

06:16 at 6500 if we pay attention.

06:18 Because it is usually the number of rounds,

06:21 the multiplication of 500 usually becomes psychological resistance,

06:24 or what we call a whole number.

06:26 - From BMRI, we move to BBCA, sir.

06:30 Where BBCA today also experienced significant growth,

06:35 and earlier also managed to break through the all-time high at Rp 9,600 per share.

06:40 - Okay, for BBCA, it's the same.

06:43 We see the same case as what happened earlier in BRI and BMRI.

06:49 Because earlier, as mentioned,

06:51 some have divided the dividends,

06:53 or some want to divide the dividends.

06:55 So in my opinion, this is not sustainable,

06:58 considering that there is a gap in the BCA around Rp 9,050,

07:02 which is likely to be an area in 7 if there is a correction.

07:06 - Okay, 9575, the coverage today is 1.06%.

07:11 Last for BBNI, sir.

07:12 - Okay, for BBNI, we pay attention,

07:18 the movement is the same,

07:21 then there is also candle rejection, which I have mentioned earlier,

07:24 this candle rejection in the peak area is 5,650,

07:28 the possibility of correction to the support level area is 5,400.

07:31 - Okay, the conditions look different for BBNI, sir.

07:35 Philip, where it was closed, weakening at 0.45% at 5575.

07:39 What can we observe with the reverse of what happened for BBNI

07:44 at the closing of the second session today?

07:46 - Yes, this BBNI, with the release of the candle,

07:50 we notice that the tendency to correct in the coming week is getting bigger.

07:53 Because if we know in terms of candle,

07:56 this indicates the shooting star pattern,

07:58 again, what I mentioned earlier,

07:59 so that the tendency to correct is higher next week.

08:02 - Okay, Mr. Philip, for investors who have taken positions,

08:07 then have profited so far,

08:10 is there any input or suggestion to maximize the profits that have been made?

08:18 - If you have, for example, got an average at a lower price,

08:22 and you want to make a profit,

08:24 in my opinion, this is a good momentum,

08:26 because we sell in the peak area.

08:28 However, again, for those of you who are more invested,

08:32 I would suggest to just keep skipping this BBNI,

08:36 because we are now seeing that BBNI is very good,

08:39 the uptrend is very strong,

08:41 we also see that it is hopefully flooded with positive sentiment throughout 2024,

08:46 so I would suggest averaging in the support area,

08:48 and don't just take profits, especially those who are investing.

08:53 - Okay, analysis for Samsung, the big cap banker,

08:56 which today became a supporter of the Samkabungan family,

08:58 although earlier BBNI turned to the red zone,

09:01 and caused the speed of the Samkabungan family's income to be slowed,

09:07 and again left a level of 7,400.

09:09 Mr. Philip, while waiting for the update on the closure of trade in the second session today,

09:14 we will try to see the rotation from the sectoral movement, sir.

09:18 Throughout today's trade,

09:20 when the Samkabungan family experienced significant strength,

09:23 the shares of the Payogo Pangestu Group tend to be more stressed.

09:28 How do you see the rotation that has happened so far,

09:31 and the prospect of rotation in 2024?

09:34 - Okay, the Payogo Pangestu Group shares have really got the hype,

09:41 throughout 2023, in my opinion, it has become the emitter of Payogo Pangestu Group shares.

09:47 And we need to remember that all the decreases that have happened, the correction is very reasonable.

09:53 For example, what happened in BRPT, in Brand, is very reasonable,

09:55 because their rally was too high and too fast,

09:58 so that a 50% correction is a fairly reasonable correction.

10:02 Well, considering that in 2024 we will enter the election year,

10:06 we will enter the year of the PillPress,

10:07 historically speaking, some sectors that will perform in 2024,

10:12 the first is construction and property.

10:15 With the existence of PillPress, hopefully also with the continuous expansion of the IKN,

10:20 the government has already spent trillions,

10:22 there will be a lot of good prospects for construction and property.

10:26 The third is consumer goods and primary goods.

10:29 Consumer primary, we see that some of the raw materials will also excel enough throughout 2024,

10:38 especially if we pay attention to the economy will continue to grow.

10:41 Okay, your recommendation for the shares of Payogo Pangestu Group in the midst of weakening.

10:46 I want to go to BRPT first, at 13.50, it weakens at 1.46%.

10:51 Mr. Filip?

10:52 At 13.50, I think there is still room for correction,

10:56 the decrease area is around 1190,

10:59 which is the neckline area of the double bottom that was formed.

11:03 What is the recommendation like?

11:05 Is it still in the hold? Or what is it like for BRPT?

11:08 Hopefully for those of you who hold BRPT, it has been sold,

11:12 but if it turns out to be still in the hold, my suggestion is to sell as much as possible,

11:17 but later collect again when it touches the support level area that I mentioned earlier, 1190.

11:23 Okay, the closing today at 13.50, weakening at 1.46%,

11:28 recommended to be sold first,

11:30 and recommended to take a position again to enter BRPT at 11.50.

11:36 We turn to the brand, Mr. Filip, briefly, sir.

11:39 Okay, for the brand, if we pay attention,

11:45 I recommend selling this brand,

11:47 especially if it drops below 7,000, it already indicates a distribution pattern.

11:51 Okay, an update from the Rayo Go Pengestu Group stocks,

11:56 which today was quite deep and became a heavyweight in the joint stock price,

12:00 where the brand is today priced at 3.99% at Rp 7,225 per share.

12:09 [Music]

Category

Transcript

Recommended