This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 02/01/2024
After a particularly unsettled period, with Storm Henk today, the weather is set to turn drier but also colder as we head into the second week of 2024; high pressure is expected to dominate. We also take a look back at some of the statistics from 2023, the UK’s second warmest year on record.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
After a particularly unsettled period, with Storm Henk today, the weather is set to turn drier but also colder as we head into the second week of 2024; high pressure is expected to dominate. We also take a look back at some of the statistics from 2023, the UK’s second warmest year on record.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, Storm Henk is here and it is bringing some wet and very windy weather, particularly
00:05 to central and southern parts of the UK as we go through today, Tuesday the 2nd of January.
00:11 I will have a quick look at Henk and also a greater look at what we can expect through
00:15 the next few weeks.
00:17 Little teaser, it's looking like it is going to turn drier but also a bit colder too.
00:22 As well as that, I will have a look at the statistics from 2023 as they have just come
00:27 out but as always, thank you for joining me for this latest Met Office Deep Dive.
00:32 The 1st of 2024, if you enjoy everything that I have gone through today then make sure to
00:37 hit the like button, share this video with anyone else who you think may be interested
00:41 in it, leave a comment if there is anything you want to give us feedback on and do hit
00:46 the subscribe button so you can always stay up to date with our videos.
00:50 But let's have a quick look at Henk then.
00:53 Here is the satellite imagery from earlier on today, you can see heavy rain, particularly
00:57 across central and southern parts of the UK and we had some very strong winds as well.
01:03 Now we did name this storm pretty short notice.
01:08 That's because there was a slight change in model output.
01:11 So as you will probably be aware, here at the Met Office our meteorologists use computer
01:15 models to help us forecast what is going to happen and the latest model runs that came
01:20 in this morning just strengthened the winds.
01:24 The low pressure that is Henk isn't particularly deep but it just intensified everything just
01:28 that little bit and made the risk of those more damaging winds a little bit more likely.
01:33 Which is why an amber wind warning was issued and as a result the storm was given its name
01:40 as well.
01:41 Here's a quick look at the warnings that we currently have at time of recording.
01:44 So ideally we do issue the names of the storms much earlier, a couple of days lead time is
01:50 best but in this instance that just wasn't possible.
01:52 We did have warnings out already, we had yellow wind and rain warnings highlighting the risk
01:56 of some disruptive weather but we didn't go amber until earlier on in the day because
02:01 of that slight change in the model output.
02:04 And worth bearing in mind, lots of people still travelling, lots of people heading back
02:07 to work today and back to school as well and so that all played into the account and that's
02:12 what we took into account, sorry, when it came to the impacts that we were likely to
02:17 see due to this storm.
02:19 So very wet and windy picture today but what have we got to come?
02:24 Well if we look at the forecast going ahead and I'll get rid of the jet stream and instead
02:28 put our forecast rainfall and well possibly some snow on it instead and let's run through
02:35 the next few days.
02:36 I'll hit play so I don't stand in the way but you can see the area that is Hank drifting
02:40 away towards the east so we see the worst of the wind, the rain clearing away, the strongest
02:44 winds really clearing away as we go through Tuesday evening.
02:48 And then into Wednesday it looks like it is going to be a blustery, showery day particularly
02:52 for much of England and Wales.
02:54 Perhaps some stronger winds towards the far north east of Scotland, some more persistent
02:58 rain likely here but a fairly unsettled picture continues through the next couple of days.
03:03 And then into Thursday our attention turns to an area, well a system pushing its way
03:08 up from the south west.
03:09 It tracks its way eastwards across the English Channel and is likely to bring some significant
03:14 rain particularly to far southern parts.
03:16 I'm just going to pause it and dart back quickly if I can.
03:21 There we go.
03:22 If we go to the touch screen lets me.
03:23 And here this is where the rain is likely to be in the south southeast.
03:27 So if I zoom in a little bit there.
03:30 So the system is likely to push its way eastwards across the channel and affect southeastern
03:34 parts as we go through Thursday bringing some significant rain.
03:37 Now there is a bit of uncertainty as to how much rain and where exactly is going to be
03:42 the wettest and I can show you that with these charts here.
03:47 So the charts behind me show forecast 24 hour rainfall accumulation for the UK and this
03:52 is for the whole of Thursday.
03:54 On the left hand side I have the Met Office Global model, in the middle I have the ECMWF,
03:59 so the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and on the right hand side GFS,
04:03 the American model.
04:05 What you can see is they are generally in good agreement that we are going to see a
04:08 spell of very wet weather pushing its way up, pushing its way eastwards just to the
04:12 south of the UK.
04:13 The differences lie in the detail as to exactly where we are going to see the heaviest rain
04:18 and how far north that rain is going to push.
04:21 Starting off on the left hand side with the Met Office model you can see the rain, well
04:24 the heaviest rain really only just fringes far southeastern parts of perhaps Kent and
04:29 maybe Sussex as well.
04:31 Whereas ECMWF takes it all a little bit further northwards and so that brings a greater chance
04:36 of seeing some higher rainfall totals.
04:38 GFS, the American model, somewhere in between the two, a bit flatter with the feature in
04:42 as much as it brings more rain perhaps towards Devon and Cornwall compared to the other two
04:46 models but generally it's something in between ECMWF and the Met Office model.
04:51 I think at the moment the Met Office model looks like it's got the rain just that little
04:56 bit too far to the south.
04:57 I think there's a greater chance that we are going to see a bit more rain than this suggests.
05:01 So perhaps not quite as far north as EC but probably at the moment EC is a better guide
05:07 and that brings the potential for 20 to 30 mm of rain, possibly even 40 mm of rain.
05:13 So a pretty wet day, not exceptional, but coming so close to some very wet weather that
05:19 we've had over recent weeks, the ground is particularly saturated, that could cause some
05:24 issues so it is likely to be a pretty wet day then.
05:28 But let's look further ahead then and if we keep on and I'm not sure why my warning area
05:36 was there but it was so we'll ignore that for now.
05:39 I think I'd gone to the right place.
05:43 Anyway, if we go further ahead and I'm going to zoom out now and as we go through Thursday
05:53 then so we've got this system, I'll dart through that, that clears away then the slightly changeable
05:58 unsettled weather continues as we go towards the end of the week.
06:02 Into Friday still plenty of showers around low pressure, never too far away, fairly flabby
06:07 low, nothing particularly intense but staying with that showery theme.
06:11 But into the weekend and it's this area of high pressure that's starting to build from
06:16 the west and it's high pressure then that is likely to become more dominant as we go
06:21 through this coming weekend, leading to more settled weather across the bulk of the UK.
06:27 So it's not necessarily going to be totally dry, there's a good chance that we will see
06:31 a few showers fringing around some parts of that high pressure, particularly towards more
06:36 coastal areas but it is going to turn more settled lighter winds than we've seen recently
06:41 and a lot drier and also by day sunnier than it has been recently as well.
06:47 So a real change in the forecast as we go through this week.
06:51 As well as that I wanted to highlight before I drift on to the longer range forecast because
06:56 I will take a look at how long this high is likely to linger over the UK, I wanted to
07:01 have a look at our freezing level.
07:03 So here, remember the freezing level is the height at which the temperature is 0 Celsius
07:09 and so at freezing.
07:10 And you can see at the moment the greens highlight that the freezing level is currently around
07:15 1,000, 1,200 maybe even in fact 1,400 above, more than 1,400 metres above the surface and
07:23 so that's why it's quite mild across the UK at the moment, unsurprising with the wet and
07:27 windy weather around.
07:28 And so it's a mild picture for many but very low freezing levels below or around the surface,
07:35 not too far away over Scandinavia where it is exceptionally cold at the moment.
07:40 There you can see there's low freezing levels and so something colder isn't too far away
07:47 at the moment.
07:48 Most of the UK is under this much milder air with very high freezing levels.
07:53 Something colder isn't too far away and when the freezing level drops, that's when we start
07:59 to see something wintry, some sleet or snow.
08:01 So bear that in mind for what I'm about to tell you shortly.
08:05 But let's go back to what we can expect in terms of the forecast.
08:09 So I've just highlighted that the weekend is likely to see this high pressure building
08:13 in so it is likely to turn mostly dry, a few showers perhaps.
08:18 But it is also, actually if I go back to the picture for this weekend and if I put the
08:28 winds on instead of the jet stream, and you can see we're likely to get a bit of a northerly,
08:34 albeit generally under the influence of the high pressure.
08:36 So the winds across the UK are looking pretty slack but a bit of a northerly so that could
08:41 allow something a little bit colder trying to push its way down.
08:44 I just showed you there's some pretty cold air not too far away.
08:48 But as a result, we are likely to see our temperatures taking a bit of a drop both by
08:52 day and by night.
08:53 So some cold frosty nights are on the cards and some chilly days, albeit with mostly light
08:58 winds.
08:59 But how long is this high pressure going to stick around?
09:02 So let's have a little look at that.
09:04 Here is the ECMWF pressure anomaly chart for the second week in January.
09:09 So from the 8th of January all the way to the 15th.
09:13 And what this shows is the pinks show where higher than average pressure is more likely.
09:19 So you can see towards the northwest of the UK, much higher than average is likely.
09:24 And even across the rest of the UK, albeit the signal gets less the further southeast
09:28 you go, it does look like high pressure is looking more likely, or at least higher than
09:32 average pressure.
09:33 And I think high pressure is pretty likely for that second week of January.
09:39 As well as that, in terms of pressure, as you would expect with high pressure dominating,
09:44 if we look at the same chart but this time for precipitation anomaly, this shows that
09:49 the oranges show that it's likely to be much drier than average as well.
09:52 Again, this is for the second week in January.
09:55 And so you can see particularly towards the northwest, western Scotland is likely to have
09:58 significantly drier than average.
10:00 And across the UK as a whole, it does look like it is generally going to be drier than
10:04 average as we go through the second week of January.
10:06 A real change to what we've had through the last few weeks.
10:10 But then I mentioned the fact that colder air not too far away and changes in our wind
10:14 direction that will have a knock-on effect on our temperatures as well.
10:17 And so looking at the same chart again, but this time showing the temperature anomaly
10:22 again for the second week of January and the blues, as you would expect, highlight that
10:26 across the UK, it's looking like it's going to be colder than average.
10:30 A good few degrees colder than average as well.
10:33 Like I said, it's not going to be colder just by day, but by night as well.
10:36 And at this time of year, we have pretty long nights.
10:39 Factoring that there will be light winds because of the high pressure.
10:43 We're running the risk of something a bit frosty or quite frosty, some harsh frost quite
10:48 likely.
10:49 We could even see some icy patches, particularly if we do get any showers pushing through at
10:53 times.
10:54 They could have a wintry element to them.
10:55 So perhaps a little bit of sleet or snow possible.
10:59 But even if it's just rain, when we get those cold nights, which we're likely to have, we're
11:03 likely to see a bit of ice around at times.
11:06 But bearing in mind that this cold spell looks like it could last for quite a while, at least
11:10 a few days.
11:11 And so that could have a knock on effect on some people's health with some cold nights
11:15 over quite a long period.
11:17 As well as that, the ground's saturated.
11:20 So long nights and the saturated ground from all the rain that we've seen over recent weeks
11:25 means that fog is going to become an increasing risk.
11:28 And so we've got ice, we've got frost, we've got fog, possibly some snow to watch out for.
11:33 So although it is, from most people's point of view, good news that we have a more settled
11:37 picture coming up with high pressure generally dominating, I know a lot of us are pretty
11:42 tired and fed up of all the wet and windy weather we've had through recent weeks.
11:47 And so for most of us, it is good news.
11:49 We do need to bear in mind that there will be some other hazards to watch out for.
11:52 Obviously, we will keep you up to date.
11:54 We will issue warnings, particularly for fog and ice, if they are likely to cause significant
11:59 issues.
12:00 The other thing that we need to bear in mind is that whilst this is the general pressure
12:05 anomaly trend, so high pressure somewhere over the UK, perhaps towards the northwest,
12:11 slight changes in where that high pressure pushes in and settles will change the wind
12:16 direction and where we're dragging in the winds.
12:19 I mentioned before that there's exceptionally cold air across Scandinavia at the moment.
12:23 And so whilst it's pretty unlikely that we'll have a strong easterly or anything like that
12:27 bringing in that colder air, it's not out of the question.
12:31 And so we just need to factor in all this when we're looking at what's to come looking
12:35 further ahead.
12:36 Whilst we're on this topic, this time last week, it looked like we were going to have
12:41 a significant sudden stratospheric warming event, which you may well know can lead to
12:46 some pretty exceptionally cold and hazardous wintry weather for the UK.
12:51 Now, the signal has changed quite significantly over the last few days, and it only looks
12:55 like it may just be a minor SSW event.
12:59 And so that goes in alignment with the idea that generally high pressure across the UK
13:05 and nothing too extreme looks most likely, but not out of the question.
13:10 In terms of SSW looking further ahead in the winter, well, you can't rule it out, particularly
13:13 as we go later on in February.
13:15 So that's one to watch.
13:16 But for the time being, it doesn't look like there's going to be a significant SSW across
13:22 - well, SSW, which is relatively good news from a hazardous point of view for the UK.
13:29 However, we often say that there's high pressure on the horizon coming up, and it never quite
13:34 comes off.
13:35 Often it does, but sometimes it doesn't.
13:37 In this instance, though, I'm pretty confident that we are going to see it.
13:41 You may have seen this chart before.
13:42 It's a forecast confidence index, and it shows how high the confidence is in the forecasts
13:49 that we're issuing.
13:51 The reds show where the forecast confidence is lower than average, and the greens show
13:56 where it's higher than average.
13:57 We run from left to right in date order.
14:01 So at the moment, confidence is a little bit below average for the - well, just a little
14:06 bit below average.
14:07 But that's not that unsurprising when we have low pressure and unsettled weather around.
14:11 That's fairly normal.
14:12 However, what you can see is as we go through this weekend, confidence actually increases,
14:17 and it stays high as we go through at least the beginning half of next week.
14:22 And in fact, if we look at the confidence for Wednesday, it's about the average confidence
14:28 for Saturday, so about four or five days earlier.
14:34 So the confidence for next Wednesday, when I'm saying high pressure is very likely, and
14:38 yes, it's going to be chillier, but a lot of fine, sunny weather around, the confidence
14:42 in that forecast for next Wednesday is about the same as the average confidence for this
14:47 coming Saturday.
14:48 So it just goes to show that I think it's pretty likely, or very likely, we are going
14:52 to see that high pressure dominating the picture as we go through next week and at least into
14:57 the middle of the month.
14:58 You can see confidence really drops off as we head towards the end of next week and the
15:02 following weekend, unsurprising as we get too far ahead.
15:05 But it does look like this high pressure does linger for quite a while and dominate the
15:09 picture across the UK for a while.
15:12 Now I think that's everything that I wanted to say about the forecast going ahead.
15:16 But I did want to mention what has already happened recently.
15:20 This is a Met Office Deep Dive, and so I wanted to look at the statistics for 2023.
15:24 Now we have just released our 2023 statistics, and I think the headline from it is the fact
15:30 that 2023 was the UK's second warmest year on record.
15:35 This chart looks at mean temperature plotted since 1984, and you can see, unsurprisingly,
15:41 there's a warming trend.
15:43 Now 2022 was the UK's warmest year on record.
15:48 That was the first time that the mean temperature exceeded 10 Celsius.
15:51 It reached 10.03.
15:54 Last year, 2023, we got to 9.97.
15:57 So not far off that, but not quite above that 10 degree Celsius threshold, but an exceptionally
16:02 warm year nonetheless.
16:03 It comes after some very warm months.
16:07 Eight out of 12 of the months in 2023 were warmer than average.
16:11 June was the – it was the warmest June on average and the joint warmest September on
16:16 average.
16:17 Looking at Northern Ireland and Wales, they both individually had their warmest year on
16:22 average coming after 2022, which was also their warmest years on average.
16:26 So for two years in a row, Wales and Northern Ireland have had their warmest years on record.
16:31 Sorry, not on average, on record.
16:34 And Republic of Ireland also had their warmest year on record as well.
16:39 So 2023 was an exceptionally warm year for many places.
16:44 For the UK, the second warmest year on record.
16:48 As well as that, let's look at these maps.
16:50 And this shows that across the whole of the UK, it was warmer than average in 2023, particularly
16:56 across like I said, Northern Ireland, Wales, also South West England.
16:59 Sorry, my little buttons are getting in the way for Denman, Cornwall and Somerset.
17:03 But it was very warm in the South West as well.
17:05 Less warmer than average for the northeast of the UK, but nonetheless, it was warmer
17:10 than average for the whole of the UK.
17:12 If we look at a similar map, but this time this chart shows the rainfall anomaly for
17:18 2023 compared to average and the browns for western parts of Scotland show where it was
17:23 drier than average.
17:24 But elsewhere, you can see it's fairly significantly wetter than average.
17:28 In fact, for the UK as a whole, we had about 11% more rain in 2023 than average.
17:35 And some sites, Watnell in Nottinghamshire, for example, likely to have had their wettest
17:40 year on record with some very wet spells.
17:42 Had a lot of storms coming through.
17:44 It's pretty unusual for us to already be on the letter H with Henk coming today.
17:48 So we had a lot of storms recently, bringing a lot of wet and windy weather.
17:53 But worth noticing, I highlighted it already, but western parts of Scotland, a little bit
17:56 drier than average.
17:57 That's because more rain than usual has been coming in from the east.
18:00 You may remember Storm Bebette, for example, brought some significant rain to eastern parts
18:04 of Scotland.
18:05 More often than not, we get a lot of our wet weather coming in from the west, but we've
18:08 had quite a few instances where it's been coming in from the east, which is why western
18:12 parts of Scotland have been a little bit drier than average.
18:15 But yes, the main takeaways from 2023, the second warmest year on record.
18:22 We have just issued a news release, so you can have a quick search for that if you want
18:25 to see more statistics about 2023, because it was quite an interesting year.
18:32 Just the UK, though, where it was exceptionally warm.
18:34 The global temperature is likely to be the warmest year on record.
18:39 So credit to Ed Hawkins, who creates these show your stripes images, which you can, if
18:46 you Google or search for these, you can see areas for the country or area that you are
18:52 interested in.
18:53 And they show a warming trend as we go through the year.
18:56 So the blue show the colder years, and it's got redder and redder, showing that it's getting
19:00 warmer and warmer.
19:02 And Ed had to point out that he's running out of colours, because 2023 is now likely
19:06 to be the globally the warmest year on record.
19:09 And he's struggling to find a way of illustrating it with this great chart.
19:14 So just thought I wanted to highlight that to you as well.
19:19 So that's most of my recap through 2023.
19:21 And the last thing that I wanted to end this deep dive on was a little look at the tornadoes
19:25 that we had last week.
19:27 So this footage behind me is from Staly Bridge in Greater Manchester.
19:31 And that was when a tornado hit last week.
19:34 It caused a lot of damage, as you can see, with roofs being blown off.
19:38 And that was caused by a supercell thunderstorm that crossed through the area, bringing some
19:42 heavy rain, but these intense winds as well.
19:45 As well as that, there was a confirmed tornado in Tipton St. John in Devon, which caused
19:52 I think it blew apart a 150 year old tree, so caused a lot of damage there.
19:57 And there are also at the moment unconfirmed, but reports of a tornado in Gosport, Hampshire
20:03 as well.
20:04 So three significant tornadoes in just a few days.
20:07 Now, tornadoes in the UK aren't unheard of.
20:10 In fact, we get around 30 on average each year, but most of them are short lived and
20:15 pretty small.
20:16 So don't cause much, if any, damage and often go unnoticed.
20:19 And so to have three significant or two, possibly three significant tornadoes in just a few
20:24 days is pretty unusual and pretty severe.
20:27 But I just wanted to show you that.
20:28 So thank you very much for joining me for our latest Met Office Deep Dive.
20:32 I'll leave you on the forecast pressure anomaly for the second week of January, showing that
20:36 higher pressure is more likely because I think that is welcome news for most people.
20:42 As always, like I said at the start, if you have any comments, please do leave them.
20:45 I will be going through them later on and replying to some of them.
20:47 Hit the like button if you've enjoyed it and share it with anyone who you think might
20:51 be interested in it.
20:53 And hit the subscribe button so you can stay up to date with our videos as always.
20:56 Alex Deacon will be back tomorrow with our 10 day trend, and he will be taking a more
21:00 in-depth look into what we can expect as we go through this period of probably more settled
21:05 weather.
21:06 Otherwise, I will see you soon.