pres bank video.mp4

Transcript

00:00 Some investors and traders, especially those who buy yen, were expecting a positive surprise,

00:11 but it did not happen today. We do not know if it will happen in the coming months.

00:18 But today it was not like that, and therefore the Japanese central bank kept the interest rates

00:26 in the negative range without any change or even any indication of when it will start

00:32 to renew the monetary policy. The Japanese central bank has indeed kept the interest rates

00:38 at a negative 0.1%. The vote was also made by the General Assembly, and therefore it is

00:45 the only central bank around the world that keeps the interest rates in the negative range.

00:51 There is no indication of when this monetary policy will end, and this is according to

00:57 the statements we heard from the Japanese central bank governor. On the other hand,

01:03 those who were hoping that it would also raise the target interest rate, especially

01:09 for the next 10 years, this did not happen either. The interest rate remained at the

01:15 1.1%, and therefore there was no change in the monetary policy. The Japanese central

01:23 bank governor said that the increase in interest rates is still behind the trend of

01:27 rising prices. The target interest rate may not be the target.

01:31 So today we may see a slowdown in the rates of interest rates, a slowdown in growth,

01:38 but at the same time we see a slowdown in inflation rates. This may confuse the Japanese

01:47 central bank in the next steps. As for the market reaction, it was very positive.

01:53 As for the US dollar, which was the only currency today that was slowing down, and

02:01 the returns were more than 1% and we reached again above the level of 144 yen for the

02:09 dollar. And of course this is also positive for the stock markets, where we saw a

02:15 Nikkei index that is rising today also by more than 1% during this session. And notice

02:21 with us how the decision was here and how Nikkei reacted greatly to this monetary policy.

02:29 As for the expectations of the Japanese central bank, today the swap rates still indicate

02:40 a 90% probability of increasing interest rates in the first quarter of next year or the

02:48 second quarter of April, with a probability of about 90% and 45% of increase in the first

02:55 quarter of 2023 in January. What the ING Bank expects is to cancel the control of the

03:04 family's mortgage on bonds in January. Today, it is 1% chance to cancel it. This may

03:11 give room for a big rise in the interest rates of bonds, and this may have even a greater

03:17 impact on yen than the increase in interest rates in the second quarter of 2024. This

03:27 means that some things are in agreement with the market. As for the Reuters, the increase

03:32 in interest rates will be in April and 80% expect the end of interest rates by the end of

03:38 next year, 2024. And it may be that the Japanese central bank is the only bank that

03:44 raises interest rates in the light of the fact that most or all other central banks will

03:50 lower interest rates according to market expectations.