عمليات جني الأرباح تنال من بورصة مصر.. و "EGX30" يتراجع أكثر من 1%
Transcript
00:00 We will go directly to Cairo.
00:02 Mr. Ihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Board, joins us.
00:06 Mr. Ihab, welcome to us and thank you for being here.
00:10 Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi decided yesterday to continue the process of
00:16 the central bank's accountability after these elections to determine the monetary policy.
00:22 It seems that we are moving away from the central banks to protect the federal and even
00:29 European banks from the process of authentication.
00:32 There are many opinions that he may have reached more than 200 points.
00:36 In the name of God, the most merciful.
00:41 Congratulations to Egypt for the end of the presidential elections and the victory of
00:45 President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
00:47 This is what we pointed out and expected during the last period.
00:50 All the indicators were clear and indicated this.
00:53 Therefore, we did not see any reason to resume the economic decisions over the past months.
00:59 Perhaps with you here, in more than one previous interview, we mentioned this and said that
01:04 the monetary policy did not claim to postpone difficult decisions or economic decisions
01:12 throughout this period because it will have consequences.
01:15 We started with 35 pounds of dollars in front of the pound after the issue of dealing with
01:23 direct dispute cards.
01:25 We reached and said at the time that we will exceed 40 and 45.
01:29 We saw that now we are approaching the 50s.
01:31 All this is a result of the delay in making the decision after the presidential elections.
01:36 After the presidential elections and the passage of the matter, what will happen in the
01:43 next period?
01:44 The logical and natural matter, and this is what I talked about a lot before, is that
01:48 there is no compensation.
01:50 Some opinions that have emerged during the past period say that there is no compensation
01:54 or that there is no new reduction.
01:56 The word compensation is a very big word, but it is a reduction in the currency.
02:00 There is no reduction in the currency.
02:02 Of course, there will be a reduction because it is not possible that things will go as
02:06 there is a price difference between the official price of 31 and 50 pounds in the equivalent
02:10 market.
02:11 This is not the case because the state, as we said, cannot bear the price difference
02:16 from its front, no matter how much it has from foreign currency.
02:21 Subsequently, in the short period that is coming, it is expected that we will see a reduction
02:26 in the value of the pound again.
02:28 I imagine that it will be between 35 and 40 percent.
02:31 We may see levels above 40 pounds, 40, 41, 42, but the important thing will not be at
02:37 this point, but there will be a process of approval.
02:40 Because, as we said before, it is not a problem of the value of the price or the value of
02:44 the commodity, the important thing is approval.
02:46 Will the currency be available at this price or not?
02:49 This is the biggest challenge.
02:51 If the state was able to save dollars at this level, then at that time the crisis could
02:55 be solved relatively in a short period.
02:57 But this will not be a long-term solution or even a medium-term solution.
03:01 Because as long as the interest rates in the United States are close to 5, 5.5 percent,
03:07 the crisis will remain a constant not only in Egypt, but in most developed countries,
03:11 or in all developed countries.
03:12 We saw what happened in Argentina and we saw what happened in Turkey.
03:15 All countries that rely heavily on the exchange rate will face a crisis that there is no doubt
03:22 about, as long as the interest rates are 5.5 percent in the United States.
03:24 As soon as the US federal government takes the expansionary policy and starts reducing
03:28 the interest rates, and this is what we also said over the past months or weeks, that
03:33 with the beginning of 2024, it is expected that the policy will start to ease a little
03:38 or reduce interest rates.
03:40 After that, we can say that things will improve.
03:43 Of course, as a consequence of the decrease in the value of the pound, the interest rates
03:47 have increased, which we have also been calling for for months, and the Central Bank has
03:51 postponed it more than once, and the negative interest rate has reached about 16 percent
03:55 between the inflation rate and the interest rates or the highest levels in the banks.
04:01 So, I imagine that we will see another 25 percent of the interest rates that we saw
04:06 before, and this time it may be for three years, not just for a year like the last time,
04:12 but for three years, and we will see higher rates, which may reach 27 or 30 percent, compared
04:18 to the one-year interest rate that is issued to withdraw foreign currency from the market,
04:24 and it may also be related to the exchange rate change in the case of the interest rate
04:28 in Sharjah.
04:29 So, in your opinion, will we see a part of the Egyptian liquidity in the market withdraw
04:34 in favor of this high interest rate, Mr. Ihab?
04:37 This is normal.
04:40 The normal situation that we have seen in every decrease is that when there is a decision
04:46 to decrease and then to raise the interest rates, especially, of course, I understand
04:51 that raising the interest rates has a very negative effect on the size of the internal
04:56 and external debt to Egypt, but the current situation requires this, and maybe we were
05:01 the first to say about the 7 percent and 9 percent interest rates on the dollar, although
05:06 it is higher than what is available abroad, but it is not enough to attract it.
05:11 Today, in order to attract this money, I know that I will bear a great interest, but I
05:16 must be a number that makes the investor really want to come and put it with me, not 7 percent
05:21 to be 5.5 percent in America and here 7 percent, and there is 6 percent also in America.
05:26 So, of course, it is not surprising in any way.
05:29 So, I say to you that this time there must be large numbers in interest rates, and if
05:35 the dollar is reduced in the banking system, it may benefit the foreign currency holder
05:41 to take a 30-percent interest rate, as much as it will be issued.
05:46 I do not want to be sure of numbers, but I imagine that it will be within these limits
05:51 so that the world can move a little and the problem of the credit box is over, and as
05:56 we heard, the loan is negotiating for 10 billion, so at that time it may be in the
06:01 hold.
06:02 As I said, the crisis will remain in the hold, not in numbers at all, not in pricing
06:06 at all, but the existence of the dollar will be completely linked to the credit policies
06:11 that America is taking.
06:13 The development and national projects are also at risk.
06:16 This question is now being raised in the face of this challenge, Mr. Ihab.
06:20 Is the government able to continue to develop these projects, which are already linked
06:25 essentially with the private sector?
06:27 The biggest mistake that the government can make, whether it exists or will change, is
06:32 to stop existing projects.
06:34 I mean, the existing projects that have been implemented, and the existing projects that
06:39 have been achieved, must be completed in any way, whether there is a priority or not,
06:45 because the loss of stopping it is much greater, so these projects must be completed.
06:51 But the idea here is to re-establish the priorities again.
06:55 We should hear again, as we used to say, that there are priorities in front of the
07:00 coming government, whether it has remained or changed, there must be priorities and
07:05 re-arranging the priorities so that the national projects or the major projects that we
07:10 have been saying over the past few years, that this idea is over for the whole world,
07:15 there is no country that puts all these investments in projects, the one that makes
07:20 these projects is the private sector, and the state facilitates it.
07:24 But the state spending all this money on infrastructure, of course, was also a
07:29 right, and it was achieved for the right, that things might be lighter if these crises
07:34 had not happened.
07:36 I mean, the corona crisis did not happen, and before that, the Russian air strike in
07:40 2015, and then after that, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and a fool who is aware
07:44 that the corona problem was not a disaster, I mean, who is reducing it and considering
07:48 it as an excuse to which the government is relying, no, this is a fool, because the
07:52 corona crisis is the biggest problem that caused the crisis of the Egyptian economy
07:56 and the entire world.
07:59 So what happened was not in favor of the projects that were achieved or that were
08:03 included.
08:04 We hope that, as you said, your life will re-arrange the priorities, and that the period
08:08 that is coming, we postpone these projects completely, and we continue what is available,
08:12 and the whole idea changes in terms of the private sector, and any projects that want
08:16 to be done by the private sector directly, it is the one who takes it, and it is the one
08:20 who is responsible for it, and it is the one that is facilitated to the highest degree
08:24 because it is the one that is not the final government and it does not tolerate whether
08:28 it is the debt collectors or the debt collectors of long-term projects or long-term contracts,
08:32 I mean, for a long time.
08:34 We thank you, Mr. Ihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board.
08:38 Thank you very much for being with us from Cairo.