Pressure on Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino. Has he been unlucky with results, or is his plan for the team simply unworkable? FourFourTwo's Adam Clery examines English football's biggest conundrum.
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00:00 *Intro*
00:03 Hello everybody, Adam Cleary, 442 here and Chelsea, what the hell-see.
00:09 Yeah, they've just done it again, haven't they?
00:11 They've posted a corner-turning win against Brighton,
00:14 followed up by a very weird evening against Manchester United,
00:17 and have now just been done by Everton.
00:20 And this has, of course, been the pattern for their season so far,
00:22 so we must ask the question in today's video,
00:25 just why is this team not good?
00:29 *Ding*
00:31 Alright, so, okay, this is the XI that started against Everton.
00:35 I think anybody looking at this would say, "That's actually a pretty good team."
00:39 You've got solidity and intelligence at the back,
00:41 and Rhys James, who's really, really good.
00:43 You've got two of the most expensive central midfielders ever,
00:46 and up front, you've got like a mix of experience and potential and work rate,
00:52 and just, there's a lot, there's a lot good about this team.
00:55 But they went to Goodison Park, and they had more of the ball,
00:57 they had more attempts on goal, they controlled large parts of the match,
01:01 and still, for a seventh time this season, got beat.
01:05 Well, if we go right back to the very start of the season,
01:07 I think the consensus about Chelsea was that, yes, the results had been poor,
01:11 but the performances were actually quite good.
01:14 We even did a video on the channel looking at the underlying numbers
01:17 from those early performances, and the signs were very encouraging.
01:21 You can even see here in this graph that I have hastily and sloppily cobbled together.
01:25 If you're somebody who believes you can tell anything from the XG,
01:28 Chelsea were regularly, every single week, outscoring their opponent on XG,
01:32 and the highlights would always include really bad misses,
01:35 usually from Nicholas Jackson, but could be absolutely anybody.
01:38 So the narrative was clear. They are playing well,
01:41 they're having a lot of the ball, their possession stats will put them on.
01:43 They're excellent as well, they're just not taking their chances.
01:46 Now, that is all still true, to an extent.
01:49 If you look at the Everton game, they had loads of possession,
01:51 they had more attempts on goal, they had more attempts on target.
01:54 XG, if you're bothered, that was higher yet again.
01:57 But if you watch that game, you will just know that they never once
02:01 looked in any danger of actually winning that.
02:04 And that is because those stats, in particular the whole XG and attempts stat,
02:09 is now becoming quite misleading.
02:11 I'll just, I'll show you what I mean, right?
02:13 So touches on the ball, right, that's a fairly easy thing to understand.
02:17 It's passes that are completed, it's you running with it,
02:19 it's how much control you have of the football.
02:22 In the defensive third of the pitch, Chelsea rank top in the entire Premier League
02:27 for the amount of touches they have had this season.
02:29 And that means that they are as comfortable and as confident and as well drilled
02:33 at just knocking the ball around the back and retaining possession
02:35 as teams like Brighton or Tottenham,
02:37 two sides whose entire system is based around control in that area of the pitch.
02:42 Now, if we move it forward to the middle third of the pitch,
02:44 the total number of touches, there is a drop-off, yes, but only to fifth position.
02:49 So in terms of how comfortable they are moving the ball up the pitch
02:52 into the middle third, they are the equals of Arsenal at doing that.
02:56 Alright, so let's move it up to the attacking third now,
02:59 the business end of the pitch where all the magic has to happen,
03:01 and there is a drop-off, but only one position to sixth.
03:05 In terms of retaining the ball, of passing the ball, of carrying the ball
03:08 in your opponent's third, the hardest place to do that,
03:12 they are better than Brighton and better than Newcastle.
03:14 They do it almost as much as Liverpool do.
03:18 But let's do one more stat.
03:20 A key pass, okay, it's a really easy one to understand,
03:23 it is any pass of the ball that leads directly to a shot.
03:27 On this one, Chelsea drop from first, fifth and sixth to 13.
03:32 They go from posting the same kind of numbers as Brighton,
03:35 as Arsenal and as Liverpool, to posting the same sort of numbers
03:39 as Bournemouth and Crystal Palace and Brentford.
03:42 So what does that information actually tell us though?
03:44 Well, to put it really simply, it tells us that in terms of holding on to the ball
03:47 to passing the ball, carrying the ball, building out from the back,
03:50 moving up through the pitch, 90% of the game of football,
03:54 Chelsea are really, really good.
03:56 But when it comes to turning that dominance, that possession,
03:59 that ball control into threat, into chances, the last 10%,
04:04 the hardest 10%, they are exactly where they should be in the Premier League.
04:08 They are in lower mid-table.
04:10 But again, why is that?
04:12 Well, if there should have been one immediate takeaway from the Everton game,
04:15 this does not look like a team that knows exactly what it's supposed to be doing
04:21 in the final third.
04:22 Pochettino seems to have finally settled on this 4-2-3-1,
04:26 except it's not even really a 4-2-3-1 because Gallagher and Fernandes
04:29 are both so all over the place and covering so much ground.
04:33 It's kind of like a very weird, conservative 4-3-3.
04:36 I can just show you what I mean here.
04:38 This is their pass map from the Everton game,
04:40 which shows you the average position they were making their passes from.
04:43 First of all, ignore Kukerea here.
04:46 He wasn't playing in the middle.
04:47 He just played obviously the first half on one side, the first half on the other.
04:49 So his average is going to be in the middle.
04:51 Just look at Gallagher and Fernandes.
04:53 Given that Gallagher here is supposed to be in a deep double pivot with Caicedo
04:57 and Fernandes is supposed to be at number 10 floating around the centre forward,
05:01 it's just not how that looks at all.
05:03 If we look at their individual pass maps, you can just see why this doesn't work at all.
05:07 This is Conor Gallagher, your nominal sitting midfield player,
05:11 who is absolutely everywhere across the course of a game.
05:15 And this is Enzo Fernandes, your creative attacking number 10,
05:18 who constantly drifts over to the left-hand side.
05:21 And just what should be leaping off this page at you as a Chelsea fan
05:24 is how few of these arrows point forward.
05:28 He so rarely is able to make an attacking pass in the final third.
05:33 In fact, honestly, if you just really squint at this,
05:35 I think there's one like around here,
05:37 which is sort of the only ball that goes directly forward into a dangerous area.
05:43 Do you see what I mean with those numbers before?
05:45 How they're really good at the back and really good in the middle
05:47 and actually really good at retaining the ball here.
05:49 But when it comes to just getting the killer pass, opening a team up,
05:53 they just really struggle to do it.
05:55 So problem number one, Enzo Fernandes, your number 10,
05:58 is brilliant at playing football, but is not really making any chances for you.
06:02 In fact, let's get rid of all these passes
06:04 and just replace it with the chances he created in that game.
06:07 [Crickets chirping]
06:10 Oh, all right. OK, we'll move on. Let's get back to Connor Gallagher,
06:13 your sitting midfielder.
06:14 You'll notice he spends an awful lot of his time on the right-hand side here.
06:18 Why is that?
06:19 Well, because this is Cole Palmer's pass map, your right-hand side attacker.
06:23 You will see he drifts all the way over into the centre of the pitch,
06:26 very rarely goes down the byline,
06:28 tries to play all of his game in this pocket here.
06:31 And actually, if you remember, he did that pretty effectively.
06:33 He got two really good long-range efforts off against Jordan Pickford.
06:36 They were both on target.
06:38 But if we overlay all of Chelsea's shots on target in that game,
06:42 they're all just from outside the box.
06:44 They're all pretty much identical to that one from Palmer.
06:47 And if you remember as well, all the chances that were in the box,
06:50 that were a lot nearer the goal, they all missed.
06:52 They were all never likely to result in a goal.
06:55 They weren't good chances.
06:57 So again, what does that tell you?
06:58 Chelsea, lot of the ball, very good on it,
07:00 progressing up the pitch really, really nicely.
07:02 But get into the final third and don't know what to do.
07:06 So either they try and force a chance that's never going to go in,
07:09 or they just shoot from really far out.
07:11 And this is why, if you just rewind your brains a couple of minutes,
07:14 I said these stats about how they're playing are starting to get misleading.
07:18 Because yes, Chelsea again, do have a bigger XG than their opponents,
07:21 but it's just a cumulative score of having all these really, really poor chances.
07:27 They had 16 of them.
07:29 If they all score like 0.1 or 0.2,
07:32 it's going to look like they should have had a goal,
07:34 but they were never going to get a goal.
07:36 They just do not have a clear attacking identity.
07:39 Like Fernandes, your best creator, isn't able to find a way to create anything.
07:43 Palmer, your best attacker is coming in field to get into a dangerous area,
07:47 but then either has to do some brilliant bit of solo brilliance,
07:51 like he did against Man United, or just shoot and hope for the best.
07:55 And I mean, part of the reason he comes in field is so he can get
07:57 Rhys James up this side for his crossing and his direct running and his creativity,
08:01 and they can't get him fit.
08:03 Like he hasn't finished 90 minutes once this season.
08:07 And every single week you watch Chelsea and it becomes harder and harder
08:10 to figure out what it is they're even being told to do.
08:13 Like in some games, you'll see them sit really deep
08:15 and try and hit teams on the counter with like Mudrick and Sterling,
08:18 and they've created quite a high number of chances doing that,
08:21 but they've scored only like three because they're not good chances.
08:26 They're in like the top six or seven for the number of crosses
08:29 into the box this season, but they're also rock bottom for crossing accuracy.
08:34 So again, good with the buildup. They can get into those positions.
08:36 They can go and do that, but the fact that nobody can get on the end of them
08:40 sort of shows it's not really the plan.
08:42 They can't create good chances that way.
08:44 And sometimes you'll see them press the opposition and push right the way up
08:48 and look like they've got the drive and the intensity to be that kind of team.
08:51 And indeed, look, they rank third in the league
08:54 for the total number of high turnovers.
08:56 That can be a way to play. That can be a system.
08:59 But where do they rank for goals scored from high turnovers?
09:02 Pretty much right at the bottom again,
09:05 because it's not something they've clearly worked on.
09:08 It's not the plan. It's just something they're doing.
09:11 And yes, by the way, you did just see that Man United were at the very top
09:14 and then the very bottom of that particular staff,
09:17 but we will talk about them another day.
09:19 And the thing is as well, if you go back through the fixtures
09:21 and look at where their good performances were and where their bad performances were,
09:24 that paints a picture itself.
09:26 Like I thought they were brilliant against Manchester City.
09:28 They were really good against Spurs even before the sendings off.
09:31 But those are quite open games against good opponents
09:34 who will let you play and individual quality can shine through much better.
09:38 But they're more disappointing results like they couldn't score against Nottingham Forest.
09:42 They couldn't score against Bournemouth.
09:44 They couldn't score against Brentford.
09:46 They couldn't score against Everton.
09:48 What do all these teams have in common?
09:50 They're nice and tight and compact and make it difficult for you.
09:53 And you have to, as a team, have ways of breaking that down.
09:57 They haven't got that.
09:58 But the real, real problem here is that these results are already
10:01 and justifiably putting pressure on Mauricio Pochettino.
10:05 When you've seen the almost instant impact Emery's had at Villa,
10:08 that Postacoglou's had at Tottenham,
10:10 it's not unreasonable to expect the results to have been better.
10:13 But Chelsea are in quite a unique position
10:16 compared to pretty much every other club.
10:18 They have the youngest squad in the entire Premier League.
10:21 The average age of their starting XI this season is younger than any other team.
10:26 All of their transfers in the summer, by design, were players under 25.
10:30 And even the bulk of those were barely above 20.
10:34 And when you sign younger, less experienced players,
10:37 it normally, not always, but normally,
10:39 takes more time for them to settle into new surroundings.
10:43 They've got to play with new teammates, with a new manager, in a new system.
10:47 Some of them in a new league, in a new country.
10:49 There's a lot to consider here.
10:51 And if you saw that youngest average age graph before
10:53 and spotted that Arsenal were in too,
10:55 well, aha! But Arsenal have a young team and they're doing well.
10:58 Look at how settled most of their young players are.
11:01 But Kai Osaka's like nine or something,
11:03 but he's been at Arsenal his entire career
11:05 and has 200 professional games under his belt at this point.
11:09 Like, Martinelli is young as well, but he made his debut back in 2019.
11:13 They signed Saliba that same year,
11:15 and yes, he's been out on loan and stuff,
11:17 but he came back with loads of experience.
11:20 But just think about it this way, okay?
11:22 Declan Rice, Moses Caicedo, the two defensive midfielders,
11:25 everybody was after this summer,
11:27 and they went for pretty much the same amount of money.
11:29 Declan Rice has settled instantly.
11:31 Moses Caicedo looks to be having a much harder time of it.
11:33 Now, I wonder why that could be.
11:35 Is it because Rice is really good and Caicedo is absolutely rubbish?
11:38 Or is it possibly that Rice has 250 games
11:42 at the very top level with West Ham under his belt,
11:45 and Caicedo has played 45 times in the Premier League for Brighton?
11:49 Like, just trust me, okay?
11:50 This is honestly a good selection of players.
11:53 It's not a good team yet, but it is a good selection of players.
11:57 The one thing it's lacking is experience.
12:00 Now, whether that means they go out in January
12:02 and they buy some older players who can maybe slot in a bit better,
12:05 allow the other ones sort of the space and the room to develop,
12:08 or they just trust the process and they stick with this squad
12:11 and they just see where it ends up at the end of the season,
12:14 I don't know, but that's honestly all it's lacking.
12:17 Like, Nicholas Jackson is 22 and out of one season up front for Villarreal.
12:23 Like, he will get there as a centre-forward, just not in the next four games.
12:27 Anyway, that's just what I think, so let us know what you make of it all
12:30 in the comments below. I do dearly, dearly, dearly love to read them.
12:32 And if you've enjoyed this video or think, "Ah, maybe there's potential there,"
12:36 I might enjoy a future one, please do consider subscribing to us here at 442 on YouTube.
12:39 Subscribing, I say every video, is the one thing that really, really does help us out.
12:43 It's the one metric we get to point at and go, "Look! Look at what good a job we're doing!"
12:47 So we're very, very grateful for those of you who choose to do that.
12:50 In the meantime, though, you can get me on Twitter @adampleary,
12:52 C-L-E-O-I, 442 socials in the corner of the video.
12:55 And Maurizio, if you are watching, my good man, hang in there, baby.
13:01 It'll be fine. Goodbye.