What does the departure of German troops mean for Mali?
The last German MINUSMA peacekeeping troops have left Mali. Mali’s military government had demanded an end to the UN mission, which had provided some 15,000 soldiers over the last decade. A top security analyst shares insider knowledge on what the departure means for Mali and the Sahel region, where jihadist insurgents have been causing havoc – and what role Wagner mercenaries play.
Transcript
00:00 Joining me now for more from Abuja is Dr. Kabir Adamu, he's CEO of Beacon Consulting,
00:07 a company that provides intelligence, expertise and security solutions to businesses in Nigeria
00:12 and the Sahel.
00:13 Dr. Adamu, welcome.
00:15 What impact will the departure of UN troops have on security in Mali?
00:23 Thank you very much.
00:25 The MINUSMA mission was principally aimed at stabilising the region and to prevent the
00:31 territorial grabbing that non-state actors had embarked on in Mali.
00:37 So with their withdrawal, and of course with the withdrawal of other components including
00:42 French, German and several other United Nations components, there is going to be a gap.
00:49 Now whether that gap can be filled by the Russian Wagner Group or the Malian forces
00:55 as it were, unfortunately only time will tell.
00:59 Mali's foreign minister had said that MINUSMA had fuelled tension in his country and that
01:04 the public didn't trust the force.
01:07 Was he right?
01:08 Well, yes, there was an element of mistrust and mainly because of the association of the
01:15 UN force as it were with forces like France.
01:19 And so there was a failure to distinguish between the UN role and the role of bilateral
01:27 forces like the one of France.
01:29 So that element of mistrust unfortunately remained throughout the 10-year deployment
01:35 of MINUSMA in Mali.
01:37 You mentioned this earlier and so did our report that Mali's military government has
01:41 opened its door to Russian mercenaries.
01:44 What is their role in the country?
01:48 So it appears, even though the details of the agreement between the Malian government
01:53 and the Russian government as it were, and of course the non-state actor Wagner, is not
02:00 very clear.
02:01 What we have seen on ground is operational support, including offensive operational support.
02:08 So just recently in central Mali there was an operation using drones and we know that
02:13 it was a combination of Malian forces and Wagner forces that carried out that operation.
02:18 There are also elements of ground operation involving Wagner forces.
02:25 So it's military, it's tactical, and to an extent also training support to improve
02:30 the capacity of the Malian forces.
02:33 Are you able to speak to how big Moscow's influence overall on Mali is and how do you
02:39 assess its impact?
02:42 Now after the coup, the rapprochement between the Malian and Russian government has increased
02:53 and it appears that it is that rapprochement that has strengthened the Malian junta's stance
03:00 regarding this decision to ask MINUSMA to pull out, and of course by implication to
03:04 ask other bilateral agreements, including with the French and to countries like Germany.
03:11 So it is rather increasing the influence.
03:15 The more these countries and the UN force pull out, the more Russia is able to exercise
03:20 influence.
03:21 Now that would be determined in the future by at least two major things.
03:26 Successes that this new rapprochement is able to achieve in the area of the economy and
03:33 then of course in an improvement of the security circumstances in Mali.
03:39 Does Russia have altruistic motivations in Mali?
03:45 It doesn't appear so.
03:47 Russia's interest has never been altruistic.
03:50 It is strategic.
03:52 It is also to an extent economic.
03:55 Now Russia is looking for allies.
03:58 It's been isolated as a result of its actions in Ukraine and it's finding those allies in
04:04 Africa.
04:05 Now African countries are in need of economic support and sometimes military support.
04:13 Please go on.
04:14 Yeah, so sometimes Russia offers this to support both economic and military and of course with
04:20 the hope of getting that strategic support, especially in multilateral bodies such as
04:25 the UN.
04:26 But more importantly, it's access to the minerals that are in these countries.
04:29 Right.
04:30 We'll leave it there for the time being.
04:31 But thanks so much for joining us today, Dr. Kabir Adhamu.
04:35 Thank you for having me.
04:37 [BLANK_AUDIO]