Maduro 'incapable of bringing out vote': Referendum meant to spark patriotic fervor met with apathy
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00:00 And for more, let's go to Venezuela's capital.
00:01 Will Gunson is Andy's Project Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group.
00:06 Thank you for speaking with us here on France 24.
00:09 Thank you very much.
00:12 First of all, can you confirm that Sunday, walking around the streets of Caracas, was
00:18 there a big groundswell of interest, or did nobody care?
00:23 It looked like a normal Sunday, really, in Caracas, and all independent sources showed
00:30 that the polling stations were, if not completely empty, then certainly devoid of large queues
00:36 of voters.
00:37 The only queues that I saw, in fact, were of uniformed soldiers who obviously were there
00:45 under orders.
00:46 Public employees were also instructed to turn out and vote, and their names were ticked
00:51 off on lists.
00:52 So, I mean, I think the figures that the government is giving are really not credible.
00:56 The government is talking about 10.4 plus million voters, and they were pretty invisible
01:02 to most independent observers.
01:05 50 percent of the electorate is what they're claiming.
01:10 That's right.
01:11 Actually, even more than 50 percent, because since so many Venezuelans are now abroad due
01:15 to the economic crisis primarily, about 4 million people on that register are outside
01:21 the country and effectively unable to vote.
01:24 So what was it all about, this referendum?
01:26 Was it about Guyana?
01:27 Was it about whipping support ahead of elections that are due to take place next year?
01:34 I think mostly the latter.
01:37 I don't think this is really about a serious claim or a serious attempt to recover, as
01:44 the Venezuelans would say, the Isequiba region.
01:46 I think it has more to do with internal politics.
01:50 This is a very unpopular president who faces a difficult election campaign next year.
01:56 He was seeking to wrap himself in the flag.
01:59 He was seeking to build up patriotic fervor in the hope that that would give something
02:04 of a boost to his campaign.
02:05 And I think despite the figures that the government is presenting, the reality is that it did
02:11 exactly the reverse.
02:12 It showed that he's not capable of bringing out the vote.
02:15 And so that really leaves a big question mark over what the government does next.
02:20 Yeah.
02:21 And this dispute over the Isequiba River, we were wondering last week as well, this
02:28 was a non-issue until just a couple of years ago.
02:33 Is it also have to do with the fact that there's been oil discovered offshore?
02:38 Well, the oil raises the stakes.
02:42 Guyana is now the fastest growing country in the world.
02:45 It's on track very soon to overtake Venezuela, which, of course, used to be a major oil power
02:52 and still has vast reserves of oil.
02:55 Guyana is going to overtake them in production and export terms.
02:59 The Guyanese per capita are going to become extremely rich.
03:02 Meanwhile, of course, Venezuela is in severe economic difficulties.
03:07 But I think we have to go back a little bit because in historical terms, just to realize
03:14 why the issue was in abeyance, it's always been kind of an article of faith, certainly
03:18 for the last few decades on the part of Venezuelans that the Isequiba belonged to them.
03:23 But under Hugo Chavez and his then foreign minister, Nicolás Maduro, who is now the
03:27 president, the issue was shelved really because that it was something that came between Venezuela
03:33 and countries that it wanted to influence in the Caribbean region in particular and
03:37 in the non-aligned movement.
03:39 So Chavez put it on the back burner and it's only now that it's become, let's say, a useful
03:45 issue to raise for the Venezuelan government.
03:48 There's another party in all of this, another neighbor, Brazil.
03:52 What position are they taking?
03:54 Well, the Brazilians have their own interests in Guyana.
03:58 Guyana for them is a key outlet potentially to the Atlantic.
04:02 It's their northern neighbor.
04:04 They've been trying to calm things down.
04:07 President Lula himself has appeared a little exasperated in the last couple of days with
04:12 his counterpart, Maduro, even though they're kind of ideological allies.
04:17 Brazil would like to see the issue go away.
04:19 They certainly don't want to see Venezuela continuing to whip up this nationalist fervor
04:25 and possibly risking some kind of a military clash with Guyana.
04:29 Yeah.
04:30 And on that score, have we heard from, Guyana is a former British colony.
04:34 Have we heard from the Commonwealth, for instance?
04:38 Commonwealth is totally behind Guyana.
04:40 In fact, almost the whole world is totally behind Guyana, regardless of what the legal
04:46 position is, what the International Court of Justice will eventually determine.
04:53 Everybody that, there is almost nobody, even Venezuela's closest allies like Cuba, are
04:58 on the side of Guyana.
05:00 So I think that the benefits for the Venezuelan government of going down this road of confrontation
05:07 with Guyana are pretty hard to see.
05:11 Certainly I think if they were to attempt anything in terms of a border incursion, there
05:15 would be an immediate and very severe reaction from the international community in general
05:20 and from some of their key allies in particular, the Chinese, for example, another key ally
05:25 of Maduro, have interest themselves in Guyana's oil.
05:29 One final question for you, Phil Gunson.
05:33 This is a remote area we're talking about for the most part, even though it's two thirds
05:38 of Guyana's territory.
05:40 Just how remote?
05:41 Well, you can get there.
05:44 I've been there.
05:45 I mean, when I went a few years back, you really had to go by river.
05:51 The Brazilians have been building a road through the Essequibo to reach the Atlantic.
05:57 So I think it's a little bit more accessible now than it was then.
05:59 But a large part of this territory is impenetrable, pristine jungle.
06:06 Some of it's savanna.
06:07 Some of it's the coastal strip.
06:09 Very rich, of course, in mineral resources and in timber.
06:13 But it's very underpopulated.
06:14 And it's not, you know, it's not an easy place to get to, but they are trying to build up
06:19 ecotourism.
06:20 I want to thank you so much, Phil Gunson, for joining us from Caracas.
06:25 Thank you very much.