Are climate goals still reachable? The executive director of the International Energy Agency speaks to Euronews Business' Angela Barnes about whether the transition to net-zero by 2050 is really possible.
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00:00 Our energy world in 2030, only seven years from now,
00:05 will be very different compared to what we have today.
00:09 I think whoever says that the reaching climate course
00:13 is impossible, they are on the wrong side of the history.
00:17 - Welcome to The Big Question,
00:25 the series from Euronews,
00:27 which seeks to take you inside the minds
00:30 of some of the most extraordinary people
00:33 in the world of business.
00:34 Well, we'll be discussing what makes them tick
00:37 and answer some of the most, well, the industry's simple,
00:40 but yet they're some of the biggest questions
00:43 we want answering.
00:44 Well, in this episode, we're going to be talking
00:47 to Dr. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director
00:50 of the International Energy Agency.
00:53 And we'll be asking him, among other things,
00:55 whether net zero by 2050 is still really achievable.
01:00 Dr. Birol, thank you very much for joining us today.
01:08 We have a lot to talk about.
01:10 Of course, energy is the hot topic at the moment,
01:13 the energy transition, sustainability,
01:16 and also, of course, this is all amidst
01:18 the cost of living crisis as well.
01:20 But let's start with the IEA's most recent
01:22 World Energy Outlook, which was published in October,
01:25 of course, which says that while coal use enters
01:28 a steep decline after 2030, gas and oil use
01:31 remains close to peak level for the next two decades.
01:34 So one of the questions then, despite all of the efforts
01:38 with the green energy transition,
01:40 why is it that this is still expected to be the case?
01:44 One of the main findings for which is very interesting,
01:48 especially nowadays, to underline is our energy world
01:52 in 2030, only seven years from now,
01:55 will be very different compared to what we have today.
01:59 The reason is clean energy technologies
02:03 are moving very fast, faster than many of us realize.
02:08 If I may, I give a couple of example
02:11 from our daily lives, electric cars.
02:14 So only three years ago, one out of 25 cars
02:19 sold in the world was an electric car.
02:23 This year, one out of five cars sold is electric
02:28 because they are going very strongly.
02:30 And in 2030, every second car sold in the world
02:35 will be an electric car.
02:36 Or another thing, renewable energies, solar, wind.
02:40 We expect between now and 2030,
02:44 every single year of all power plants built in the world,
02:48 the entire world, more than 80% of them will be renewables.
02:53 More than 80% of all power plants in the world
02:57 will be renewables, only a small part will be fossil fuels
03:00 because they are becoming cheaper.
03:02 So there are many examples like that.
03:04 Clean energies are becoming cost-effective,
03:07 namely cheaper, and governments do give support to them.
03:11 As a result of that, in 2030, we will still, of course,
03:15 have a lot of fossil fuels, as you mentioned,
03:19 coal, oil, and gas, but the clean energy growth
03:22 is unstoppable, nobody can stop that.
03:26 - And Dr. Brill, though, to get that transition, though,
03:29 whilst all countries are moving towards those same goals,
03:32 of course, it's not as easy for other countries.
03:34 For you, are there any noticeable geographical disparities
03:37 and how can that be better balanced?
03:39 - So, of course, to make this transition
03:43 needs financial muscles.
03:46 If you're a rich country, you can afford this much easier
03:51 than the others, or you need right, good policies.
03:56 For Europe, the fight against climate change,
04:00 clean energy has been a priority all the time.
04:04 But there's other country, which is China.
04:07 Today, China is the number one in terms of solar,
04:12 number one in terms of wind energy,
04:14 number one in terms of electric cars,
04:16 hydropower, and everything, because Chinese government
04:20 took this as a nation strategy since almost 10, 15 years,
04:24 and they are going very strongly.
04:27 But at the same time, China is using a lot of coal as well.
04:30 We have to put the things in perspective.
04:32 When we look at the developing countries,
04:35 such as in Africa, in other parts of Asia,
04:38 they are still lagging behind, and it is very important
04:42 that especially rich countries support them
04:46 to finance their clean energy transitions.
04:50 - Are there any particular countries or companies
04:54 that are, in your view, holding up the transition?
04:57 - I see a growing decalage, growing gap
05:01 between what some companies and the government say
05:05 and what they do in the real life.
05:07 Some companies, especially some European energy companies,
05:11 are moving in the right direction,
05:12 but to be very frank with you,
05:15 when I look at the globally, the oil and gas industry,
05:19 they are far from where they should have been,
05:24 in my view, and this is very unfortunate,
05:28 because they could be a very good ally, partner,
05:33 all of us to reach our targets,
05:34 because they know a lot of,
05:37 they have a lot of engineering skills,
05:39 they have deep pockets, they have experience.
05:41 Unfortunately, they don't, most of them,
05:44 they don't make use of these skills
05:46 and the financial muscles to address climate change.
05:50 This is really disappointing.
05:52 (dramatic music)
05:55 - And that brings me, as well, Dr. Birol,
06:00 to talking about your role at the IEA,
06:03 because you're the diplomat,
06:05 you're the mediator, the consultant,
06:07 you play so many roles,
06:09 but can you just explain to our audience
06:12 what exactly the tasks are behind the title?
06:16 - Okay, so I talk with the government leaders around the world,
06:21 the decision makers, but also business leaders
06:24 and the investors to tell them,
06:26 we are a data organization, number-driven organization.
06:30 We tell them, these are the numbers,
06:31 these are the consequences,
06:33 and it is better for you if you go this way,
06:36 but if you go that way, you may have trouble.
06:39 So it's then up to them to take it up or not.
06:42 We are, in fact, very proud that many governments listen
06:46 our suggestions, our recommendations closely,
06:50 the example was after 24th of February,
06:53 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
06:56 we came up with a 10-point plan,
06:58 what the European countries need to do
07:01 in order to have an easier winter, last winter,
07:05 and reduce the role of Russian energy,
07:09 and they did follow our suggestions,
07:11 and Europe, under circumstances,
07:14 had an easy winter last year.
07:17 - Yeah, certainly a huge transition.
07:19 - Very different from moving away from Russian oil and gas.
07:22 - Exactly.
07:23 - You can see the headway that has been made.
07:26 Dr. Birrell, I just wanted to bring back to prior to 2021,
07:30 where there was some criticism at the time
07:31 that the IEA was not doing enough
07:33 to tackle the climate crisis,
07:35 but that year, the IEA published a groundbreaking report,
07:39 it was very well publicized at the time,
07:40 which laid out a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050.
07:44 Now, what had changed economically
07:47 for it to be the right time to act then?
07:49 - Yes, so IEA is, for several reasons,
07:53 under the spotlight.
07:55 So, before, some people were saying
07:58 that we were not pushing the climate agenda enough,
08:01 and now some people are saying
08:02 that we are pushing the climate agenda too strongly,
08:04 so there are different views on that.
08:06 But for us, my motto is, "No fear, no favor."
08:11 We look at the data, whatever the data says,
08:14 but in the year 2021, two years ago,
08:18 we made, as people call it,
08:21 the seminal work of the energy industry,
08:24 what needs to happen in the energy industry
08:28 to bring our emissions to net zero by 2050.
08:32 And energy is at the heart of it,
08:33 because about 80% of the emissions causing climate change
08:38 comes from the energy sector.
08:41 So, we showed two years ago
08:43 how we can reduce these emissions in the energy sector
08:48 to be in line with what scientists tell us.
08:51 All the details were analyzed,
08:54 gave some concrete recommendations to governments,
08:57 and now I am very happy to say that the many investors,
09:01 even when they are judging the shareholders of a company,
09:05 they look at the IEA's report.
09:08 IEA says this, but you are doing that.
09:11 What is the problem?
09:12 (dramatic music)
09:14 - You laid out targets as well, such as by 2015,
09:20 90% of electricity should come from renewable energy sources.
09:24 In your personal opinion, regardless of other views
09:28 and your role, do you personally believe
09:31 that this is doable?
09:32 - I personally believe this is doable.
09:35 The only issue I see, to be very frank,
09:39 and there are, of course, challenges,
09:40 economic challenges, technological challenges.
09:43 The only challenge I see is the lack
09:47 of international collaboration among the countries.
09:51 This is the main problem, the fragmentation
09:53 we are seeing around the world today.
09:55 If we can overcome that, either international fragmentation
10:00 goes to international cooperation,
10:01 or countries make an exception, the climate change,
10:06 put all their political problems aside
10:10 and focus on the climate change.
10:12 If there is international collaboration,
10:13 I believe we can reach our climate targets.
10:17 - And what would you say is the biggest challenge
10:19 for them to try and all come on board?
10:22 - I think they should be, all the companies,
10:26 all the countries should really believe
10:28 that this is achievable, and at the same time,
10:33 if we can't achieve that, they themselves
10:36 will be in trouble.
10:37 I mean, everybody is saying that,
10:38 why is IES pushing this so strongly?
10:40 It is, we are here, 400 people.
10:44 I am very fortunate to be in the top 400 experts
10:47 of the world, but it is a problem for everybody.
10:51 Even you are an executive of an oil company,
10:54 you, your partner, your children are also exposed
10:59 to the impacts of climate change.
11:06 - I wanted to touch on nuclear with you as well,
11:09 because obviously it's a big issue
11:11 impacting EU directives moving forward.
11:14 France, as you know, for example,
11:15 for all four nuclear power in Germany against it.
11:18 What's your view on nuclear power?
11:21 - So I have a respect for all the countries,
11:23 whatever they choose, but we have to tell the people
11:26 what are the consequences.
11:28 If it is left to me, I believe the nuclear
11:32 is a important policy tool to address the climate change
11:37 in the countries where it is accepted.
11:40 And when I look around the world,
11:42 nuclear is making a very strong comeback.
11:45 You know, it is also driven, not only by climate change
11:48 concerns, but also for the energy security.
11:52 People want to generate electricity as much as possible
11:55 at home and rely as little as possible on other countries.
12:00 So nuclear energy, if you have a nuclear power plant,
12:03 like it is in France now, you import less energy
12:08 because you can produce a lot here.
12:10 When I look at the future of electricity,
12:13 I see a nuclear to play a role,
12:16 but the lion's share will be still renewable energies,
12:20 especially solar, followed by wind and hydropower
12:25 and the others.
12:25 - It's very interesting.
12:26 We'll be keeping across that, of course,
12:28 and I'm sure we'll be coming back to you on nuclear again
12:29 at some point in the future as developments continue.
12:33 One of the other big questions in all of this, Dr. Biryal,
12:35 is what are the economic factors still limiting
12:38 the green energy transition?
12:40 - When we look around the world and the financing,
12:44 the situation is not very bad.
12:46 You remember in 2015, we had a Paris Agreement here.
12:51 At that time, the entire budget of the energy world,
12:55 energy investment, everything from coal, oil,
12:58 to renewables was about $2 trillion.
13:00 Out of this $2 trillion, $1 trillion went for fossil fuels,
13:06 $1 trillion went for clean energy,
13:08 so one to one in the year 2015.
13:11 Today, fossil fuels still $1 trillion,
13:15 clean energy is close to $2 trillion.
13:19 So there's a strong growth of clean energy.
13:22 But there are two problems here.
13:24 This growth of clean energy investments,
13:28 not fast enough, but more importantly,
13:33 this clean energy investment happening mainly
13:36 in the advanced economies and in China.
13:39 The fault line of the whole problem is,
13:42 not enough clean energy investment is happening
13:45 in the developing world.
13:47 How we are going to support those countries
13:52 in order to make them a necessary investment
13:56 for clean energy, for solar, for wind,
13:58 for efficiency, for electric cars and others.
14:02 And it is in the interest of everybody,
14:06 even for the advanced economies,
14:08 so that they make this investment.
14:10 Because when we talk about climate change,
14:14 for example, we are in Paris today in Europe,
14:18 the climate in France will not only be affected
14:22 by the emissions in Europe,
14:25 but it's emissions coming from Jakarta
14:27 or from Detroit or Sao Paulo.
14:30 The emissions don't have a passport.
14:32 It is important for the Europeans or the Americans
14:36 or the Japanese that the clean energy investment
14:40 is happening also in the developing world,
14:43 not for ethical and moral reasons,
14:45 but very selfish reasons,
14:47 because if the emissions in those countries
14:50 do not go down, they themselves will be in trouble.
14:54 - I really like what you said there,
14:55 emissions don't have a passport.
14:57 I would love to talk to you more about that,
14:58 but we are running out of time,
15:00 but I just want to squeeze in one more question
15:02 on looking at the global energy landscape
15:05 and how you think things will look in 2050.
15:09 Any surprising predictions, Dr. Birol?
15:12 - I am a big believer of the technological innovation
15:16 and we are seeing that a lot of new technologies
15:20 coming to market and new technologies,
15:22 plus more importantly, the clean technologies we have
15:27 are becoming cheaper and cheaper.
15:29 For example, 20 years ago, when I talk about solar,
15:32 it was considered as a romantic story.
15:36 And now solar is the number one source of new power plants.
15:41 Its cost came down substantially.
15:44 That romantic story became the real today.
15:47 I'm expecting in 2050, many of the technologies
15:50 we have today, which seems very surreal,
15:54 very difficult, is the hydrogen,
15:55 it is the fuel cells and the others,
15:58 will become our day-to-day life.
16:01 And I think whoever says that reaching climate course
16:06 is impossible, they are on the wrong side of the story.
16:12 IEA is here, IEA will be here to lead the fight
16:15 against climate change.
16:16 - Excellent, thank you, Dr. Birol.
16:17 And the very best of luck and with your ongoing work
16:21 that you're doing here at the IEA.
16:22 And thank you very much for talking to us
16:24 on The Big Question.
16:25 - Thank you very much. - Thank you.
16:26 - Thank you.
16:27 (upbeat music)
16:30 (upbeat music)
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