Amazon Prime kicked off its annual sales event yesterday.
Guy says that as long as the stock market doesn't break, consumers will spend.
Guy also comments on retailers such as TJX and TGT.
Guy says that as long as the stock market doesn't break, consumers will spend.
Guy also comments on retailers such as TJX and TGT.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Guy Damian with us for the hour tonight.
00:04 Katie Stockton, the founder of Fairleave Strategies. Welcome, Katie.
00:07 Thank you.
00:07 And we start off with a prime day. Palooza, the 48-hour sale event is currently underway.
00:12 Prices may be down for shoppers, but shares are up for Amazon investors. And a rising tide
00:16 lifting a bunch of retail boats today. Etsy, Nordstrom, Gap, Kohl's, Chewy, all seeing green
00:21 on the street. This strength comes as we await a key read on inflation due out tomorrow morning.
00:25 Consumer prices expected to grow at the slowest pace since March 2021. But will that be enough
00:30 to keep shoppers spending? You know, what's interesting is that prices have gone higher
00:37 for a lot of goods. And so we are seeing discounts, but off of a different kind of base, Guy.
00:41 No doubt about it. And your answer to your question is, as long as nothing breaks,
00:45 and when I say breaks, it's typically a stock market, consumers will spend. And it's not
00:49 to suggest everybody owns stocks, but the market goes up every day. People feel better about things.
00:53 The economy must be good. I can go out there and spend regardless of whether or not I should be.
00:57 We say it all the time. Never underestimate the U.S. consumers want to spend. Some of these
01:02 retailers have been extraordinary. Well, we talk about T.J. Maxx. I think Karen brings it up. That
01:06 stock's made an all-time high, I think, late last week, earlier this week, continues to trade higher
01:10 in earnings in August. Then the flip side of the coin is target. Exactly. Retailers that can't
01:15 figure it out. So target. So you have to you can't just sort of paint with a broad brush here.
01:20 You actually have to pick the right companies. But is Amazon the right kind of retailer for this
01:24 day and age, Karen? Well, we we don't know what the real value of the retail business is, right?
01:30 They spend so much money to build up that business. And it seems like any time they want,
01:34 they can take that spend down and we can see real operating margins as opposed to the really thin
01:38 ones here. But it's just so dominating. It's hard. I mean, I'm sure they're going to come out with
01:44 massive numbers. I don't even know that it's so much what Amazon does. It's what does it take
01:48 away from everybody else? You know, and so you talk about a target. I think a target is,
01:54 unfortunately, not the beneficiary. And then with the consumer being a little bit strapped,
01:59 you know, Wal-Mart's food business is so much better for Wal-Mart. So target, which I do own,
02:04 has been disappointing. I think that that higher good, the sort of higher margin goods that they
02:09 sell are not really what's working right now. It's not just what they take, but also the pressure
02:13 they put on the other retailers to come up with those sales and the pressure on margins that in
02:16 turn puts on their competitors. Well, so what you're saying is that maybe it's really the
02:21 competition between them all that's maybe the most important thing. And if you think about
02:25 where we're going to be for this year's Prime Day, some of the numbers I'm reading is that
02:29 the promotional kind of discount percentages are going to be pre-COVID level. In other words,
02:33 they were holding the line in Q1 and obviously there was a huge inventory correction that had
02:37 to go through. A lot of that's happened. And I think they're going to be aggressive. And I think
02:42 some more aggressive than others. So it's fascinating. In fact, Katie probably has a view
02:46 just on the relative outperformance of what retail. I mean, retail, we're going to talk about
02:51 industrials and FedEx next block, but retail's outperformed them all. Yeah, it's been outstanding,
02:56 especially from Amazon, which had a very sort of distinct bullish reversal. And you talked about
03:02 Target too. Of course, that's a downtrend. So we still want to, as technicians, always go with the
03:07 leaders, follow the momentum. And it's obviously behind Amazon, both in absolute and relative
03:13 terms. So when you say it is behind Amazon, that means there's not much left to this stock rise at
03:19 this point? No, meaning the momentum is behind it. The momentum is behind. Right. So it still
03:22 has good momentum. This rebalance news seems to have impacted it and the other mega caps to some
03:27 degree short term. But I have a feeling that should give us an opportunity to add exposure
03:33 right around earnings. Right. I mean, it's also got. Yes, you whispered that
03:38 because we're talking about prime, but I mean, obviously, it's a beneficiary of a lot of other
03:44 trends out there, including, you know, what we're doing, cloud services from my eyes, you guy.
03:48 I don't do anything, though, so it's very easy for them. No, I mean, clear. But they've had it
03:52 for seemingly forever. I mean, they were probably on the forefront of this. And Amazon's we had Jim
03:57 Osman on the show a month and a half, two months ago, and he talked about stocks potentially could
04:01 split up. And I think Tim's talked about this as well. I mean, the breakup of value of Amazon
04:05 here is probably really interesting. I'm not saying it's happening tomorrow, but I think
04:09 with this little stealth rally, more and more people say, you know, maybe there's a chance
04:12 that they spin out a W.S. Maybe the sum of the parts becomes an interesting story.
04:17 And oh, by the way, maybe they have those tailwinds. Katie just said technically.