ITG 113 - Week 10 Preview with Phil Steele
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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 In the Gun, episode 113.
00:07 It is Phil Friday here on In the Gun.
00:10 I'm Skylar Callen, that is Jed Drenning.
00:12 And here in just a few minutes,
00:13 we'll talk to the guy, our guy, Phil Steele.
00:17 So before we do that, we're gonna go and recap
00:20 Jed and I's picks, or should I say,
00:23 well, yeah, we'll say Jed's picks from last week
00:26 'cause me and Wes kind of had a funny joke
00:28 before we made our picks last week
00:31 that if he had all of his picks wrong or had a bad week,
00:34 we were gonna blame it on Jed
00:36 and that Jed fed him those picks before the show.
00:37 If not, Wes was gonna take ownership for those.
00:41 But since I think he didn't do too hot,
00:45 so I think he's putting this one on you, Jed, I'm sorry.
00:48 I step out for one week and Wes comes in
00:50 for his three picks.
00:51 (laughing)
00:52 Right?
00:53 And I'm like, "Okay, so."
00:54 See what happens when you leave the kids to the house?
00:57 Our handicapping picks against Central Florida.
01:00 First, we asked Garrett over/under 275
01:05 combined yards passing and running.
01:08 You both picked over.
01:11 You both thought that seemed pretty low, the 275.
01:15 Garrett ended up with 211 total yards, 156 passing, 55 rushing.
01:20 So double red X on the first one.
01:26 On the second question, we tried to get a couple questions
01:28 about these Florida high school kids
01:31 that we have on the roster.
01:33 We asked, "All right, which of these things
01:35 "is going to happen?
01:37 "Pick A, B, C, or D?"
01:38 C.J. Donaldson scores a touchdown.
01:41 Trey Lynn Ray scores a touchdown.
01:44 C, both score a touchdown, or D, neither.
01:46 You hit that one, correct?
01:48 You picked C.J.
01:49 So you got that one, and I believe Wes picked neither.
01:54 Is that what Wes said?
01:55 - Yeah, neither.
01:56 - So red X for Wes on that one,
01:59 because C.J. obviously did score a touchdown
02:02 going back to his home state.
02:05 And then moving on to question three,
02:07 same type of thing.
02:07 We focused on the Florida kids.
02:09 Defensive question, pick one of the following.
02:13 Aubrey Burks intercepts a pass, Oak Ridge, Florida kid.
02:17 Dee Hawkins records a TFL.
02:21 Lauderdale, Florida kid.
02:24 Blutter Hill, Florida kid.
02:27 Jacoby Spells, who did get some reps,
02:29 records two tackles against UCF.
02:33 And the catch-all answer was all of the above
02:35 or none of the above.
02:37 You picked this?
02:39 - I went with Hawkins.
02:40 - You went with Hawkins?
02:43 - Yep.
02:43 - So that did not happen.
02:44 We had a couple TFLs.
02:46 He did not have one of them.
02:48 Wes picked Aubrey to intercept the pass.
02:51 And strange thing is, I tell you what,
02:52 if you'd have told him we were going to have three picks,
02:54 he'd have felt pretty good.
02:55 - Yeah.
02:56 - But one of them wasn't by Aubrey.
02:57 So both of you missed that one.
03:00 Couple of those are pretty tough.
03:01 - Yeah, they are.
03:02 - Couple of those are pretty tough,
03:03 especially involving those multiple kids.
03:04 So I guess Wes, in my stead, goes 0 for 3.
03:08 Thanks, buddy.
03:10 And you went 1 for 3?
03:13 Is that the case?
03:14 - That's typically what I bat on here, is 1 for 3, yeah.
03:17 - That's good enough to win last week.
03:18 - That is.
03:19 And for those of you who know my background,
03:22 I'm a baseball guy.
03:23 So to me, that's still a pretty good batting average, right?
03:25 - That's success.
03:26 - Yeah, that's success in my book.
03:29 - We're going to have some fun, you know,
03:32 handicapping after Phil with BYU coming to town.
03:35 We're going to have some fun with that one.
03:37 So we have three that we're going to focus on there.
03:40 - Yeah, yeah.
03:41 And the Garrett Green one, by the way,
03:44 if you would have told me 2-11 was his total,
03:47 I would have been a little concerned heading into that game.
03:49 But hey, they found a way to still run up
03:53 41 points on the board, run for over 200 yards,
03:56 and found a way to get another win,
03:59 win number five on the season.
04:00 So good stuff for the Mountaineers.
04:03 Again, we're going to be talking to Phil Steele
04:05 here in just a moment.
04:06 Also, this episode of ITG is brought to you by Bet Online,
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04:18 We'll be right back here with Phil Steele,
04:19 and we'll talk some Big 12, Top 25,
04:22 and West Virginia BYU.
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05:02 - All right, everybody, and we are now here
05:07 with Phil Steele talking some Big 12, Top 25,
05:10 and that West Virginia BYU game at the end of the show.
05:13 Phil, always enjoy having you on, my guy.
05:16 - Always a pleasure.
05:18 And I tell you, it's got to be a lot nicer there
05:21 with the nice victory West Virginia picked up
05:24 on the road last week.
05:25 - Yeah, absolutely.
05:26 41-28 over UCF, and now with a win this weekend,
05:30 West Virginia will become bowl eligible.
05:33 So definitely something to look forward to this weekend
05:36 when the Mountaineers and Cougars line up
05:37 at Mountaineer Field, seven o'clock on FS1.
05:41 And let's go ahead and start things off here
05:43 in the Top 25, Phil.
05:44 It is number 12, Missouri at number two, Georgia.
05:48 Missouri's kind of the sleeping giant here, I guess,
05:51 in some senses, here in the SEC at seven and one.
05:55 I know, at least for me, I did not see this coming
05:57 from the Missouri Tigers, and I don't know
06:00 if they're going to give Georgia much of a shot in this one,
06:04 but it's been a great season so far for Missouri.
06:07 - Yeah, and I think it has been a great season for Missouri,
06:11 and I think when it comes to Georgia, though,
06:13 it all depends on who their opponent is.
06:15 You know, they're a 67% play
06:18 when they're taking on a ranked team,
06:19 so they tend to get fired up.
06:22 Remember a few weeks back against Kentucky,
06:24 Kentucky had just ran all over their Florida,
06:27 and Georgia had just allowed 200 yards rushing to Auburn,
06:31 and can Kentucky beat Georgia?
06:33 Nope, 51 to 13.
06:34 And then last week, no Brock Bowers.
06:37 What's going to happen?
06:38 Florida's going to give Georgia a big game.
06:40 Nope, 43 to 20.
06:42 And now you've got a seven and one Missouri coming in,
06:44 and this is a Missouri team
06:45 that almost beat them last year.
06:47 You go back and look at that game on the road.
06:49 Missouri led almost start to finish.
06:51 Georgia managed to come back and win it 26-22.
06:53 Georgia did have a 28 to 14 first down edge in the game.
06:58 Georgia did have a 481 to 294 yard edge,
07:02 but I think all the talk is,
07:04 can Missouri be the king of the East?
07:05 Can Missouri do it?
07:06 Nope, Georgia's going to get it done.
07:08 So I like Georgia.
07:10 I'm laying the 15 and a half here,
07:12 and I think Georgia wins this one.
07:14 Much more comfortable than expected.
07:16 - Bill, out West in the Pac-12,
07:18 we have unbeaten Washington and Michael Penix
07:21 on the road at USC.
07:22 Washington debuts in the college football playoff rankings
07:26 at fifth, despite their unblemished record,
07:28 but they are going to have plenty of chances
07:30 to improve their resume and climb,
07:32 starting with this game at Southern Cal.
07:34 Is this Southern Cal's last stand?
07:36 - Oh, absolutely.
07:39 If Southern Cal loses this one,
07:40 I mean, they got to go to Oregon next week.
07:42 It could be a long, long season.
07:44 And when you look at USC,
07:45 they have been very solid as a home underdog.
07:48 In fact, I think they're like five and one
07:50 as a home dog the last six times.
07:52 And as unimpressive as USC has been the last two weeks,
07:57 so has Washington.
07:59 I mean, Washington could have lost to Arizona State
08:01 if not for that interception return for a touchdown.
08:04 And then last week,
08:05 Stanford's within two points of them in the fourth quarter,
08:09 very two straight lackluster games for them,
08:11 and even the Oregon game,
08:13 they got out gained by 126 yards in that game.
08:15 Now, I think the Michael Penix and that offense
08:19 is going to be able to move the ball on USC.
08:21 And I think Caleb Williams and that offense
08:23 is going to be able to move the ball on Washington.
08:25 I know the total is high in this one, it's like 76,
08:27 but you kind of like the over
08:30 because I think both teams' offenses
08:32 are going to be scoring punch for punch all the way through.
08:34 The fact USC's a home dog has been leaning with USC here.
08:38 I think they can pull the upset and get the win.
08:40 And as you mentioned, it would be their last stand.
08:42 They need to win this game just to stay relevant this year.
08:46 So I'm going to call for USC to get the win at home
08:49 in a high-scoring game.
08:51 Phil, Clemson and Dabo,
08:52 they've been in the news pretty much all week
08:54 for obvious reasons.
08:56 You know, they're 4-4,
08:58 and then obviously the call he had calling out
09:00 the caller on the radio show about his job
09:04 and all that stuff.
09:05 It's been an interesting week for Clemson.
09:07 They're 4-4, but they're only three-point underdogs here
09:10 to Notre Dame, which is a little interesting, again,
09:13 considering where these two teams are at.
09:15 A few weeks ago, Notre Dame's offense
09:17 was kind of stuck in the mud,
09:18 but they've kind of rebounded over the last two weeks,
09:20 putting up 48 on USC
09:22 and then a good old 58 piece on the Panthers.
09:26 So, I mean, who would have thought that maybe
09:29 over halfway through the season,
09:30 Clemson could fall behind or fall below the 500 mark?
09:36 Yeah, shocking.
09:37 I put this out on my Twitter, which is @PhilSteel042,
09:41 and it said, "Clemson has already lost four games this year.
09:45 In those four losses, Clemson has a 94-60 first down edge,
09:52 and two of the losses were in overtime
09:55 in games they had a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter."
09:58 I mean, they could easily be undefeated at this point,
10:00 94-60 first downs in the games they lost.
10:03 So, when I look at this game,
10:05 I have no interest in playing it spread-wise,
10:09 but I guess my forecast would be
10:12 Clemson will have the first down edge,
10:14 Clemson will have the yardage edge,
10:16 and somehow Notre Dame will win the game.
10:18 So, it should actually be a pretty good game.
10:20 Clemson's playing with legitimate revenge.
10:22 They're at home, they're in the Death Valley.
10:24 They can turn their season around,
10:26 win their final four games,
10:27 and go eight and four and salvage something this year.
10:29 This is a really good Notre Dame team as well
10:31 that just dominates ACC foes.
10:33 So, I think it's just going to be a really good game,
10:36 and like I said, I think Clemson gets the first down,
10:38 the yardage edge, Notre Dame wins it.
10:40 Should be a close game.
10:42 - Last top 25 before we jump into the big 12, Phil,
10:46 you really haven't been paying attention
10:47 to this Alabama offensive line, okay?
10:49 Now, which is more surprising?
10:51 You got LSU coming to Alabama in a battle of top 15 teams.
10:56 Which is more surprising, the fact that Alabama's
10:58 offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the SEC,
11:02 with 35, or the fact that LSU is 13th defensively
11:07 in the SEC in getting sacks with just 11?
11:11 - Yeah, that's a good matchup for Alabama.
11:15 They might finally get it where they can
11:18 protect their quarterback, and I think that's
11:19 a good thing for them this week.
11:21 And with LSU, they're a little banged up.
11:23 You look at their cornerback depth, and it's pretty low.
11:26 They're missing three or four cornerbacks.
11:28 They're missing one of their top defensive linemen.
11:31 So I think Alabama will look good here,
11:33 and this is amazing.
11:35 You've got Alabama playing with revenge at home.
11:37 They're a dynamic home favorite,
11:39 and they're only given three points in this game.
11:41 And it's almost like LSU is regarded
11:44 as the better team here, and it all becomes the offense.
11:47 I mean, Jaden Daniels is having a Heisman type of season.
11:50 25 touchdowns, three interceptions.
11:52 But he has taken on a really good Alabama defense
11:55 that's holding opponents to 115 yards per game
11:57 below their season average.
11:58 Last year, Alabama suffered a tough loss on the road.
12:02 That was a game in which they had the yardage edge.
12:05 They outgained LSU by about 100 yards,
12:06 but lost it in overtime.
12:08 I think if you give Nick Saban revenge at home
12:12 with the better defense, and as you mentioned,
12:14 LSU's defense hasn't been getting to the quarterback.
12:17 That may give Jaden and Milroy more time here.
12:20 I'd like Alabama to win this one by about a touchdown or more.
12:24 Scholar Terry on top for Phil before we
12:26 jump into the Big 12.
12:27 Credit where credit's due.
12:28 Last week, what did he say about Alabama, Tennessee?
12:31 He said, Alabama at home by double digits
12:33 against the Vols.
12:34 That's exactly what played out.
12:36 But once again, Phil nailed it.
12:37 Go ahead, Scholar.
12:38 The man knows what he's talking about.
12:40 That's why he's on our show every Friday.
12:41 He gives us the insight.
12:42 So 82 to 3, by the way, is the score in the Kansas State
12:49 games over the last two weeks.
12:50 And I don't think that's going to necessarily go
12:53 in their favor this week against Texas.
12:56 It's probably going to be a little bit closer, probably
12:58 maybe even the Longhorns coming out on top.
13:00 But this is going to be a really good matchup.
13:02 Kansas State, one of the five teams
13:04 tied atop the Big 12 conference standings.
13:07 Texas, obviously, not going to have Quinn Ewers in this one.
13:10 Phil, it's a very interesting matchup without Quinn Ewers.
13:15 How can Texas put this thing together offensively
13:18 around Malik Murphy?
13:20 Yeah, very impressed with Kansas State each of the last two
13:23 weeks.
13:23 In fact, last three weeks, they went into Texas.
13:25 That came out of there with that nice win.
13:28 And I think current form right now,
13:29 Kansas State's playing as good as anybody in the Big 12.
13:33 And Texas, I was sort of nonplussed with their victory
13:37 over BYU last week.
13:38 Yes, they won.
13:39 Yes, they covered.
13:40 They won 35 to 6.
13:42 But Malik Murphy had the interception.
13:44 He had the fumble.
13:45 He wasn't 100%.
13:46 It didn't look 100% as far as being able to be
13:50 as good as Quinn Ewers.
13:51 But now he's got to start under his belt. He's still at home.
13:55 I think he'll probably have a better game this week.
13:58 And then I look at Kansas State and how they have
14:00 fared on the road this year.
14:02 They lost to Missouri on the road by 3.
14:04 They lost to Oklahoma State by 8.
14:06 And even the Texas Tech game, that was a turnover-fueled game.
14:09 Remember, they're taking on Texas Tech's third string
14:12 quarterback.
14:13 They were plus 3 in turnovers.
14:15 They actually got outgained in that game at Texas Tech,
14:17 but came out with a 17-point win via the turnover.
14:21 So I don't think they played as good away as they have at home.
14:24 And really, when you look at Texas on the hoof,
14:26 I mean, look at their running backs.
14:28 Look at their offensive line.
14:29 Look at the receivers, the defensive front,
14:31 the linebackers, the secondary.
14:33 They are one of the most talented teams in the country.
14:36 They're at home.
14:37 They're only laying four points here.
14:39 Who would have thought that two, three weeks ago,
14:41 especially prior to the Oklahoma game?
14:43 I just think Texas plays their A game here.
14:45 Kansas State hasn't played as well on the road.
14:47 I'm going to go with Texas, even though the quarterbacks I
14:50 would favor Kansas State.
14:52 I think the overall talent goes to Texas,
14:53 as does the home edge.
14:56 We have Bedlam and Stillwater, two ranked teams, number 9,
14:59 Oklahoma, number 22, Oklahoma State.
15:02 This is a big one.
15:03 Oklahoma trying to rebound from that loss in Lawrence.
15:06 Will there be a hangover effect there?
15:08 But what's fascinating about this,
15:10 Ollie Gordon has taken the nation by storm.
15:13 We were part of his run that he's on.
15:15 Against Cincinnati, Cincinnati's defense
15:18 had not allowed a team to run for more than 125 yards
15:21 and threw seven games.
15:22 I got a couple NFL defensive linemen, Cincinnati does.
15:26 They were gashed by Oklahoma State for 325
15:29 last week in Kansas.
15:30 Kansas had success on the ground.
15:32 Brent Venables and crew is going to have their hands full
15:35 on the road in this game in Stillwater, right?
15:38 Yeah, you know I've been riding Oklahoma State ever
15:41 since that Kansas State game.
15:43 And I thought the key to Oklahoma State
15:46 this year was the switch to, as opposed
15:50 to using three quarterbacks like they did the first three games,
15:52 going to Alan Bowman in game four.
15:55 And in game four, they put up 409 yards
15:58 against a really good Iowa State team
15:59 and then upset Kansas State, upset Kansas,
16:02 unfortunately upset West Virginia.
16:04 But then last week, just blasted Cincinnati.
16:07 I love the good current form that they're in right now.
16:09 As you mentioned, Ollie Gordon is having a tremendous season.
16:12 271 yards last week, 282 yards the week before.
16:18 The last guy that did that at Oklahoma State,
16:20 back-to-back games of 250 plus, you
16:22 might have heard of him, Barry Sanders.
16:24 And Ollie Gordon, I think, as you mentioned,
16:26 is rocketing to the Heisman talk and the best
16:30 running back in the country.
16:32 This is Bedlam.
16:33 This is the last time at home.
16:34 Oklahoma State wanted to continue this series.
16:36 Oklahoma got out of the Big 12 and said,
16:38 you know what, we're not going to continue this thing.
16:41 It's their last shot.
16:42 It's the home crowd.
16:43 They're going to be loud.
16:44 I think it's going to be a great game.
16:46 I give Oklahoma State a tremendous shot
16:48 at pulling the upset here.
16:49 And right now, when you look at the two teams
16:51 that are playing, they're both playing
16:53 about dead even the last four weeks
16:54 and Oklahoma State's at home.
16:56 So I definitely like the underdog Cowboys in this one
16:59 with a potential upset.
17:01 Phil and Jed, hold your nose for this next one.
17:04 It's a stinker.
17:04 It's Baylor and Houston.
17:06 And one of these teams has got to find a way to win this game.
17:09 Baylor is a team that has really struggled at home this season.
17:13 Phil mentioned that last week.
17:14 And it blew my mind when I actually
17:16 went to look at the schedule.
17:17 They're 1 and 5 when playing in Waco.
17:20 And if it weren't for a pair of Big 12 newcomers in Long Island,
17:24 it wouldn't be too much of good vibes around the Baylor
17:28 program, even though there's not really much right now anyways.
17:31 And then for Houston, on the flip side,
17:33 I mean, look, if it wasn't for a certain play
17:35 at the end of a certain game, they
17:37 wouldn't have a Big 12 win to this point in the schedule
17:40 either.
17:40 So one of these teams got to find a way
17:42 to come out on top, though.
17:44 Do you feel like Baylor can maybe get that second Big 12
17:47 home win?
17:50 Yeah, and I think they must win this game.
17:52 This is almost one of those must-win situations.
17:54 You lose this thing, you got at Kansas State, at TCU,
17:58 and then West Virginia to finish out the year.
18:00 Surprisingly, I've seen Dave Aranda on the hot seat,
18:03 which is ridiculous.
18:04 The guy's a tremendous head coach,
18:07 did a tremendous job two years ago.
18:08 Yes, they've been struggling lately.
18:10 But they're at home for this one.
18:12 They absolutely-- it's a circle the wagons game.
18:15 I can see them giving their best game of the year.
18:17 Blake Chapin is back in the lineup.
18:19 Remember, he missed like three games earlier,
18:21 part of that losing stretch that they had.
18:23 So with Chapin, I think Baylor's the better team at home.
18:27 And I do think they come out of here with the win.
18:29 And Houston last week just got mauled by Kansas State.
18:32 And I think you hit it right on the head, if not for that Hail
18:35 Mary, they are winless in the Big 12 as it is.
18:37 So I'm going to go with Baylor in this one minus the points.
18:41 Fascinating game with Kansas, a ranked Kansas team,
18:44 up to the big one against Oklahoma heading into Ames.
18:48 Kansas having the season a lot of people thought they might.
18:52 But meanwhile, Iowa State has circled the wagons
18:54 after that loss at Ohio.
18:56 They've won three straight in the league, four out of five
18:58 overall.
18:59 Kansas has had success running the football.
19:03 But you don't step into Ames, Iowa
19:04 and run on John Hecox's defense the way
19:06 Kansas has run on some of these defenses
19:08 they've had success with.
19:09 I think maybe what they do is they
19:11 look at that template of Oklahoma State
19:13 loading the box against Kansas and having success
19:16 and forcing Jason Bean to beat you.
19:18 What do you see playing out here?
19:20 Fascinating game at Jack Trice Stadium.
19:24 Yeah, I think you hit a lot of the points right on.
19:27 So congrats for that.
19:29 I mean, I think Iowa State's defense
19:31 will be able to stuff Kansas' run game.
19:33 They were strong against everybody this year.
19:36 They're holding opponents to 67 yards per game
19:38 below their season average.
19:40 And they're playing with a lot of confidence right now.
19:43 I mean, this is a team that--
19:44 even the Oklahoma game, go back and look at that.
19:46 Yeah, they lost by 30 points.
19:48 But in the second quarter, it was a three-point game.
19:51 And it just went south on them.
19:52 Other than that, they've been pretty dominant.
19:54 I thought they dominated TCU.
19:56 They dominated Cincinnati.
19:57 They dominated Baylor and even beat that red-hot Oklahoma
20:00 State team.
20:00 So I like the way Rocco Beck's throwing the football.
20:03 And I think when you look at Eli Sanders and Cartebius Norton,
20:06 they're going to be able to run the ball in Kansas.
20:08 Kansas, the last four weeks, given up
20:10 256 yards per game on the ground, 5.6 yards per carry.
20:14 That's almost six yards every time
20:16 you try to run the ball on that defense.
20:18 We saw Kansas last year fail a little bit down the stretch,
20:22 will fail a lot down the stretch.
20:24 And they're coming off a massive win at home.
20:26 Now they're traveling.
20:27 They're not as good on the road.
20:29 Their two Big 12 road games this year,
20:31 they lost at Texas and Oklahoma State.
20:33 Jack Trice Stadium, one of the tougher venues
20:35 to go in and try to win.
20:37 And I'm surprised that Iowa State's less than a field goal
20:40 favorite here, like minus 2 and 1/2.
20:42 I'd definitely like Iowa State in this one
20:44 to win this one by about a touchdown or more.
20:47 UCF at Cincinnati, it's another one of those stinker games.
20:50 But again, someone's got to find a way
20:52 to get their first Big 12 win this weekend.
20:54 And just so we can throw out another mention to Pitt here,
20:58 Cincinnati has not won a game since they
21:00 beat those Pitt Panthers way, way back in early September.
21:04 So Phil, who's getting that first Big 12 win this weekend?
21:09 Yeah, you mentioned neither one has won a game.
21:12 And as explosive as Cincinnati looks at times,
21:15 I mean, you watch them in the first half
21:16 and some of their games.
21:17 And you got Emory Jones running the ball.
21:20 You got Kiner running the football.
21:22 They're averaging five yards a carry, over 200 yards
21:24 per game on offense.
21:27 The second half, they seem to go away.
21:28 And Emory Jones has had some interception problems this year.
21:32 He's tossed nine of them.
21:33 John Rice-Palme's also thrown seven.
21:35 So I think whichever quarterback plays the cleaner game
21:38 is probably going to be the key here.
21:40 Watching both teams through the Big 12 play so far,
21:43 I do feel UCF's a slightly better team.
21:46 And I know it's on the road.
21:47 But I'm going to lean with UCF to come out of there
21:50 with the win.
21:50 But of all the Big 12 games this week,
21:53 this is probably the stinker of the bunch,
21:55 with neither one having a Big 12 win this year.
21:59 In Morgantown, here we go.
22:01 This kind of has vibes, Phil.
22:04 West Virginia's first Big 12 loss back in 2012.
22:07 We made a trip to Texas, had a big win under the lights
22:09 at DKR.
22:11 The next week, had to turn around,
22:12 come back to Morgantown, and then go all the way up
22:14 to Lubbock and got smoked by Texas Tech.
22:16 Well, look what BYU's going through.
22:18 Trip to DKR, played at Texas last week,
22:21 back to Provo, all the way across the country
22:24 to Morgantown.
22:25 And it doesn't seem that Vegas can
22:28 get a bead on West Virginia.
22:29 I mean, there's been some eye-popping spreads
22:31 with this team.
22:32 Whether we're a 14-point underdog against TCU and win,
22:36 whether we're favored against Oklahoma State and lose,
22:38 we were somewhat of a significant underdog,
22:41 7-8 points at UCF last week.
22:43 Same thing this week with BYU.
22:45 We're favored by double digits at home against BYU.
22:49 What do you see playing out at Mountaineer Field
22:51 with BYU and the Mountaineers?
22:54 Yeah, last week's spread I mentioned on the show
22:56 surprised me.
22:57 I thought that West Virginia would be 3-point dog at most
23:00 in that game.
23:02 Was surprised that it was 7.5-8, and the Mountaineers
23:06 played well.
23:07 First of all, I like the match-ups of this game.
23:10 You look at BYU so far this year in Big 12 play,
23:13 they're giving up 5 yards per carry.
23:16 Now, that goes right into the strength of West Virginia,
23:18 that offensive line, those running backs,
23:21 Garrett Green running the ball.
23:23 West Virginia will be able to run the football.
23:25 You look at BYU's offense, they can't run the football.
23:28 They're averaging 2.9 yards per carry,
23:30 under 100 yards per game.
23:31 So they're going to have to throw it.
23:33 Keaton Slovis has a 12-6 ratio.
23:35 But I rate West Virginia as the number 38
23:38 pass defense in the country.
23:39 My pass defense ratings take into account the strength
23:42 of opponent as well.
23:43 So they've got the match-up is good.
23:46 Now, how about the home field edge?
23:48 I love West Virginia's home field edge here.
23:50 I think crowds can be allowed, as you mentioned.
23:52 BYU coming off a road trip, traveling again,
23:55 that's a tough task.
23:56 In fact, it's their third road game in four weeks.
23:58 And it's the first one that's really across the country.
24:01 So it's a long road trip as it is.
24:03 And then the final factor here is,
24:05 I think West Virginia is a good football team,
24:08 a fundamentally strong team.
24:09 They run the football.
24:10 They play good defense.
24:11 BYU, I was scratching my head how this team got to 5-2,
24:14 because they were 5-2 despite being outgained by about 100
24:18 yards per game.
24:20 They had a win over Arkansas earlier this year,
24:23 where they were outgained by 143 yards.
24:25 They had the game against Cincinnati,
24:27 where they were outgained by 203 yards and 1.
24:29 So I thought they were a fake team record-wise last week.
24:32 And Texas proved it with a 35-6 win.
24:35 So you add it all up together, I think
24:37 the spread's legitimate here.
24:39 In fact, I'd probably have it a little bit higher.
24:41 I like West Virginia.
24:42 And I would lay the 10 points this week.
24:44 I think they win by more than 10 points this week.
24:46 Should be a nice, impressive win for West Virginia.
24:49 And set up a big game next week at Oklahoma.
24:53 Bill, before we get you out of here,
24:55 I want to get your thoughts on this craziness of BYU
24:58 and their home and road splits.
24:59 It looks like they're two completely different teams
25:02 when they play in Provo and then when they head outside
25:05 of their own stadium.
25:07 What do you feel like is the major, I think,
25:11 issue with that?
25:12 Is it just that the Big 12 play, the Big 12 schedule?
25:15 Was it the week-to-week grueling schedule of the Big 12 play
25:18 that's really kind of hurting this team right now?
25:22 I think that their home field is a really good advantage.
25:26 They've got the grass.
25:27 You've got the altitude, which is huge.
25:30 And then you've got a rabid home crowd.
25:32 I remember Dave Aranda went in there last year and said,
25:36 we basically lost the game because of the home crowd.
25:39 They threw up our snap counts.
25:40 The quarterback got rattled, things like that.
25:43 So all that makes BYU a much better team at home.
25:46 Then on the road, they're pretty much the talented team
25:50 that they are.
25:51 They show that their talent level
25:53 that they are, which is not as good as they are at home.
25:56 So I think the fact that they're better at home
25:58 reflects in that road record and the fact
26:00 that on the road, they pretty much show who they are.
26:03 And like I said, they're being outgained by 91 yards per game,
26:06 and yet they're a 5-3 team this year.
26:08 Yeah, that's a very, very odd stat for sure.
26:11 So Phil, we appreciate you joining us once again here
26:16 on Phil Steele Friday, and we'll look forward to talking
26:19 with you again next week.
26:21 Sounds good, guys.
26:22 Bring home another Mountaineer victory this week.
26:24 You should be able to, I think.
26:26 Yeah.
26:27 Yeah, I hope so, certainly for sure.
26:29 Again, West Virginia, BYU this weekend at 7 o'clock,
26:32 a win gets West Virginia 2 Bowl eligibility.
26:35 Phil Steele, you can get his stuff at Barnes & Noble
26:38 and Bokes & Millian.
26:39 Sit tight.
26:39 We'll be right back with our ITG handicap picks
26:43 right after the break.
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27:46 For more West Virginia Mountaineer football content,
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27:55 [END PLAYBACK]
27:57 All right, so let's go ahead and get into our handicap segment
28:01 here.
28:01 Jed and I are going to make our picks for this week's
28:04 game between West Virginia and BYU.
28:07 So Jed, what do you got for us this week?
28:10 I'm going to try and track our answers as we go,
28:13 so we don't have our homework assignments.
28:15 But we're going on the air next week.
28:17 Let's start with this.
28:18 Beanie Bishop is the second most targeted defender
28:23 in the Big 12.
28:24 He's been targeted 55 times.
28:27 But the most targeted defender in not just the Big 12,
28:31 but in all of college football, is BYU corner Jacob Robinson,
28:36 who's been targeted 69 times.
28:39 Beanie gets targeted quite a bit because--
28:42 and Neil talked about that to some extent this week.
28:44 He's more of a boundary corner.
28:47 Now, for those listening at home, what that typically means,
28:50 if the ball's on the hash, the boundary
28:53 is going to be the short side of the field.
28:54 The field is going to be the wide side of the field,
28:56 boundary and field.
28:58 Well, teams like to take those easy access throws
29:01 to the short side of the field.
29:03 A lot of times, that's what's attached
29:04 to your RPO, your pass element, your pass piece.
29:08 So it's not even just attacking the corner.
29:10 It's just by virtue of offenses being designed for the easier
29:13 access throws, you're going to attack that shorter side more
29:15 often than you're going to attack the field side.
29:17 So a lot of beanies are as a result of that.
29:20 Whereas Jacob Robinson, when you--
29:23 now, that doesn't mean Beanie is exclusively into the boundary.
29:26 There are some exceptions.
29:27 You'll see times when he's to the field.
29:29 But by and large, he is a boundary corner,
29:32 a short side corner.
29:33 Now, when you look at Jacob Robinson,
29:35 that's not necessarily as true.
29:37 They don't really move their corners
29:39 based on formation or field.
29:41 It's more of a right and left corner proposition.
29:44 So you'll sometimes see him to the boundary,
29:46 sometimes see him in space to the wide side of the field.
29:49 But here's what's interesting about Jacob Robinson.
29:51 Despite the targets and all the catches that he's allowed,
29:54 the longest catch he's allowed all season is 36 yards.
29:58 So he keeps a lid on it.
30:00 They like to attack him with the quick game.
30:03 So my question quite simply is this.
30:06 Who will be targeted more, Jacob Robinson or Beanie Bishop?
30:12 Now, opposing offenses and game plans should factor into this.
30:17 In other words, you'd ask yourself,
30:18 who's going to throw more?
30:20 Which would?
30:20 All those things baked into the equation.
30:23 Who's going to be targeted more, Jacob Robinson
30:26 as the most targeted defender in the entire country
30:29 or Beanie Bishop, who's the second most targeted
30:33 defender in the Big 12 behind Robinson?
30:35 I think it's got to be Beanie, right?
30:40 I mean, because West Virginia is going to lean on the run game.
30:43 They're going to play their identity of football.
30:45 They're going to hold onto the rock for 35-plus minutes
30:47 and run it all day long.
30:50 Meanwhile, BYU, they don't have a run game.
30:52 Like I just mentioned a few minutes ago,
30:54 they can't run the ball.
30:55 Phil mentioned they only average like two or three yards of carry.
30:59 So I feel like they're going to have to take some shots,
31:02 not only with those quick, easy outlet passes,
31:05 but they're going to have to take some shots deep downfield, too.
31:08 So I'm going to say it's going to be Beanie Bishop.
31:11 Well, I hate that this is boring,
31:13 but I'm going to agree with you again.
31:17 And again, they're going to go after Beanie
31:20 for a host of reasons, but a lot of it is what we just talked about.
31:24 And it's not to say we won't game plan to go after Jacob Robinson.
31:28 You just hope that the flow of the game,
31:30 we're going to present as a more balanced offense.
31:32 We're not going to put the football in the air 45 times.
31:35 They may.
31:36 So the opportunities are going to be there
31:39 to go after anybody on the West Virginia defense.
31:42 I mean, I might even say that Malachi might be targeted as much.
31:46 Malachi is not targeted nearly as much as a field corner as Beanie is.
31:50 But what's interesting about that, and one of the things I look at,
31:54 Skyler, is there's a metric called average depth of target.
31:57 And when you look at Beanie's average depth of target, it's only 12.2 yards.
32:02 That kind of signifies, whereas Malachi's is 16 yards.
32:05 Yeah.
32:05 That makes more sense.
32:06 In other words, they're attacking the boundary with the quick game,
32:09 like I said, often tied to the RPO.
32:11 So it's not a bunch of deep shots.
32:13 And that's not necessarily the case with Jacob Robinson.
32:15 It's not that people are going after him with a deep ball.
32:17 Oh, no, he's targeted all the time.
32:19 So watch out.
32:19 He gets beat deep all the time.
32:21 That's not the case.
32:22 Just a steady diet of quick throws, by and large, is what he's seen.
32:26 But we both agree, Beanie will be targeted more.
32:29 That's boring.
32:30 Maybe we part ways here on number three.
32:34 We've talked quite a bit about BYU's struggles in running the football.
32:40 Not only do they struggle running the football,
32:43 but they struggle running the football both home and away.
32:47 They just haven't found the success behind that offensive line this year
32:52 that they have in years past.
32:53 Part of that might be--
32:55 we talked about this in the preview--
32:57 the lack of athleticism or the dual threat nature of the quarterback.
33:00 You don't have that in Keaton Slobus.
33:02 With Jaron Hall in the past, you had that.
33:05 They certainly don't have it now.
33:06 So that's contributed to this, among other things.
33:09 In other words, it's 11 on 10 football when they're trying to run,
33:12 as opposed to when you're defending West Virginia against Garrett,
33:15 it's 11 on 11 football.
33:16 So here's question number three.
33:18 BYU is 14th in the Big 12 in rushing yards.
33:23 81, to be specific, 81.3.
33:27 That'll come in later on.
33:29 West Virginia has held five of eight opponents
33:33 below their season rushing average.
33:35 And we've held three of five Big 12 opponents
33:39 below their season rushing average.
33:41 Will WVU hold BYU below their season average of 81.3 yards?
33:50 And that's--
33:51 In other words, 81 would do it, because it's 81.3.
33:54 That's why I put the decimal there.
33:55 You know, again, West Virginia has not fit the run well at all
34:00 in these last few games.
34:03 I'm trying to guess which way you're leaning, so I can take it.
34:06 No, I'm just kidding.
34:07 You want to go first?
34:09 No, I'll go first.
34:10 I'll go with the--
34:11 I'll go over, I guess, just because, again, the defense
34:16 hasn't been playing well.
34:18 I don't think they get over it by a lot, by any means.
34:21 I think they maybe get 85, 90 yards.
34:24 One big run could really help them in getting that number.
34:27 So I'll go with the over, even though my gut tells me
34:31 the under makes a lot of sense.
34:35 The under is ambitious at 81 yards.
34:38 That's really aggressive.
34:39 It is.
34:40 I'm going to go with it.
34:42 And here's why I'm going to go with it.
34:44 On the road, they're averaging 68 yards a game rushing, BYU is.
34:50 Now, part of what's going to factor
34:51 into BYU's run game, something else we
34:54 talked about in the preview, they
34:56 have a true freshman in LJ Martin.
34:59 He was dinged up two weeks ago late in the Texas Tech game,
35:02 which was his best performance.
35:03 He was pushing 100 yards.
35:05 He didn't finish.
35:06 He warmed up last week before the loss in Austin
35:10 to the Longhorns, but didn't play.
35:13 I keep checking for things on his status this week,
35:16 but I can't find anything.
35:17 I would assume he's going to play.
35:18 If he was warming up last week and taking some reps
35:21 on the field, which he was, I'm going
35:23 to assume he's going to play.
35:24 I don't know that he's enough of a difference,
35:26 because even when you look at his numbers,
35:28 his average yards per carry-- and he's a pretty dynamic kid.
35:31 His average yards per carry in Provo are 5.8 yards per carry,
35:35 but his average yards on the road are 3.4.
35:39 Everything steers toward-- a team that
35:42 struggles to run the football has struggled even more
35:44 to do so when they leave and hit the road.
35:47 So I'm going to take the ambitious choice
35:51 and go West Virginia.
35:53 Once again, five out of eight times we've done it,
35:55 held the opponent under their season average,
35:57 but this is a much lower season average.
35:59 This is pretty aggressive.
36:01 I'm going to say we do it.
36:02 I'm going to go with the unders.
36:03 So we diverge paths finally on number three.
36:05 So there's one we disagree with.
36:08 Good.
36:08 Technically, because I do kind of see a path to the under
36:12 for sure as well.
36:13 So I do like--
36:14 You'll say this too, Schuyler?
36:15 Yeah.
36:18 It was difficult to not incorporate one of these picks
36:23 on turnovers, because they're tied for the Power 5 lead
36:27 in takeaways.
36:27 12 interceptions.
36:29 And when you look at their wins, they're plus 12 in their wins
36:33 and minus 4 in their losses.
36:35 I thought about it, but something tells me
36:37 we're going to have another opportunity with turnovers
36:40 with Oklahoma here in a couple of weeks.
36:41 So I kind of put that on the shelf.
36:43 Yeah.
36:44 So maybe that'll be a part of our ITG picks next week.
36:48 Let us know your thoughts in the comments
36:50 if you're watching on YouTube.
36:52 And you can kind of play along as we do with our weekly big 12
36:55 picks as well.
36:56 If you haven't done that yet, make
36:57 sure to go to our Twitter page or X page,
37:00 whatever you want to call it.
37:01 We have the poll up there.
37:02 If you can vote--
37:04 you'll be able to vote and compete against Jed, Wes, Owen,
37:07 and I to see if you can become the first person ever
37:11 to get all four picks right.
37:13 And also--
37:14 Which, by the way--
37:15 Yes.
37:16 The three out of four Mike Vest?
37:18 Yes.
37:18 Yes.
37:19 Yeah.
37:19 I meant to bring that up.
37:20 We forgot to get his picture in late,
37:23 but Jed told me not to worry about it.
37:26 So--
37:27 Actually, he didn't forget.
37:28 What he did was--
37:29 Skyler said he looked at that picture,
37:31 and he saw this handsome young man.
37:34 And he's like, well, who's this grungy looking old guy
37:37 that this handsome young man's standing with?
37:39 And it was Mike Vest and his handsome son
37:42 in the picture at Mountaineer Field.
37:44 We just-- we didn't want to subject the viewers of YouTube
37:46 and this podcast to--
37:48 Right.
37:48 No-- I'm sure there'll be future opportunities for Mike Vest
37:52 to have his picture on the podcast.
37:55 There's no doubt about that.
37:56 But--
37:56 Yeah.
37:57 --but he is down in the southern part of the state.
37:59 Yeah.
38:00 It could maybe even happen next week.
38:01 Maybe he is the first man--
38:03 He did tell me.
38:04 He texted me.
38:04 He said the winners are him.
38:06 That's right.
38:06 That's right.
38:07 He texted me and said the winners for this week
38:08 are already in.
38:08 He took some shots.
38:09 He took some shots at you.
38:10 He did.
38:11 He did.
38:12 One final thank you to Fortis for roof performance
38:14 and financial certainty guaranteed.
38:16 Make sure to visit fortis.us.com.
38:19 We thank you guys for tuning in with us all week here
38:22 on In the Gun.
38:23 If you want to go back and check out our episodes,
38:26 go to our YouTube page.
38:27 Hit that Subscribe button.
38:28 We've got the West Virginia BYU preview up, our weekly picks.
38:32 You can go as far back to the episode
38:34 with Big Daddy recapping that game against UCF in Orlando
38:38 last week.
38:39 So we thank you guys for watching.
38:41 For Jed Drenning, I'm Skylar Callin.
38:43 The one thing we ask of you is to be in here and tell
38:45 an ear about your new favorite WV football podcast.
38:48 You've been in the gun.
38:50 [BLANK_AUDIO]