八点最热报 | 2024年财政预算案上个月13号出炉之后，外资仍持续抛售马股，至今已连续12个交易日撤资，直到10月的最后一天才暂时停歇，净买进5800万令吉的股票。受访的股市分析师认为，由于国际外围环境持续动荡，导致全球股市下挫，投资者趋向保守，马股也难以独善其身。（主播：颜江瀚）
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00:00 Before watching the video, I remind you that there is more content on the Hotpoint website.
00:04 2023 is only two months away.
00:07 But the first ten months of global foreign investment have already accumulated 4.16 billion yuan from Magu.
00:13 The market was originally looking forward to Prime Minister and Finance Minister An Hua's promotion of the 2024 fiscal budget.
00:19 It can be used to improve the economy through some strategic measures and policies.
00:24 Then to restore confidence in foreign investment.
00:26 But after the budget was released on the 13th of last month,
00:28 Foreign investment continues to sell Magu.
00:31 To date, 12 trading days have been withdrawn.
00:35 It was only temporarily suspended until the last day of October.
00:38 It bought a stock worth 58 million.
00:41 Under the pressure of the US Federal Reserve's rise and fall,
00:43 as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war,
00:47 How long will this wave of withdrawal last?
00:50 When will foreign investment really return to Magu?
00:53 Will Magu continue to fall like other companies?
00:55 Or will the market rebound soon?
01:00 Fenglong Investment Bank's retail research director Wu Junsheng said during an interview with 8.3 News that
01:05 "Due to the ongoing turmoil in the international environment,
01:09 the global stock market is in a downturn.
01:11 Investors are also conservative.
01:13 Magu is difficult to be alone.
01:15 The main reason is that after the rise of the Fed,
01:18 the high interest rates have reached a level of 5.25 to 5.5,
01:22 making the US dollar a strong asset.
01:25 On the other hand, Malaysia's OPR policy interest rate is only 3,
01:29 which is 2.5% lower than the US dollar interest rate.
01:32 This is definitely a strong attraction
01:35 to lead a large amount of hot money from these markets to the US.
01:40 As for another reason,
01:42 China is the closest business partner to Malaysia.
01:45 Now, facing high inflation and economic pressure in China,
01:48 the RMB is also falling.
01:50 This also affects Malaysia's economic performance.
01:53 But the MRR's advisory and management partner and investment advisor Huang Guohua
01:58 said that in the shadow of the global economic downturn,
02:00 it is difficult for Magu to perform well in the short term,
02:04 but it is not a "breaking" jump.
02:07 He believes that the foreign investment in Magu in the past few months
02:10 has already been selling well.
02:12 There is a limited space for further decline.
02:14 The blue-and-yellow shares in a specific area
02:16 have risen a lot lower than the lowest point during the 2020 epidemic.
02:19 If the external factors do not continue to worsen,
02:22 and the US Fed's rise and decline cycle is also coming to an end,
02:26 then in the short term, he said,
02:28 the worst-case scenario for the Magu stock market may be over.
02:31 He expects a reversal next year.
02:35 From our third quarter,
02:38 in July and August,
02:40 foreign capital flowed in at about RMB 1.9 billion.
02:43 But in just one month, in October,
02:47 foreign capital has already been withdrawn by about RMB 2.2 billion.
02:50 It has offset the entire third quarter flow-in funds.
02:54 In the past two weeks,
02:55 not only has it limited local investors,
02:59 but it has also been throwing out this trend in Asia.
03:03 China's economy is not doing well either.
03:05 Because it is our largest trading partner,
03:07 if it falls, we will pull it together.
03:10 If you look at the whole year,
03:11 it has probably sold about 4 billion shares.
03:14 Because the US has been increasing interest rates,
03:16 so if you invest this year,
03:18 the best investment in the world
03:20 is to buy US dollars
03:22 and put it in the US short-term money market.
03:25 If its interest rates increase,
03:26 and the US dollar increases,
03:27 you basically make money.
03:29 So basically, global investors
03:30 are not doing well in terms of local investors.
03:33 The US Fed's growth and China's development are slowing down.
03:36 These two factors continue to influence the new market currency trend.
03:39 In addition, the US-China trade war broke out,
03:41 which increased the market's risk-taking mood,
03:43 resulting in a large number of foreign capital being sold to Ma Gu.
03:45 The large Ma Zhai Juan market is also in a cloud of misfortune.
03:47 Fenglong Investment Bank's retail research director,
03:50 Wu Junsheng, said in an interview
03:51 that last month, the first-time Finance Minister,
03:53 An Hua Feng, proposed a fiscal budget for 2024.
03:56 Because there is no market expectation for a large-scale reform,
03:59 investors are also disappointed.
04:00 This has also dragged down Ma Gu's performance.
04:03 The market or other funds
04:05 have high expectations of our new government.
04:08 The measures taken by Budget 2024
04:11 are below their expectations,
04:12 so it may lead to some foreign capital.
04:14 Because the major reform they expect
04:17 has not been realized.
04:18 The Chinese in this country may also have confidence problems,
04:21 which has led them to buy some risky tools,
04:24 such as US dollars,
04:25 and other financial assets.
04:28 So all these factors
04:30 have caused the market to be very weak,
04:33 especially in the past few weeks.
04:34 This is the new trend for the past 25 years.
04:38 Although the Ma-Bi-Hui is declining,
04:40 stock analyst Huang Guohua believes
04:42 that the public need not worry too much.
04:44 Because it is the end of the year, November,
04:46 traditionally, many investors and fund managers
04:48 are in the phase of buying and selling stocks,
04:51 balancing bonds and cash investment.
04:54 So the market volatility of the stock market is relatively large,
04:56 which is a reasonable range.
04:58 But he believes that this downturn
04:59 will soon come to an end.
05:01 Basically, my opinion is that
05:03 there is not much room for it to fall.
05:05 If you look back at every country,
05:07 if its currency has been depreciating,
05:10 if its basic industry is good,
05:11 especially if it is exported,
05:14 eventually its stock price will rise,
05:15 like Japan.
05:16 When it falls to a certain level,
05:18 I think that the Ma-Gu will be the end of the year.
05:21 Because the basic industry is doing well,
05:22 there is no need to worry too much.
05:24 And our interest is not very high,
05:25 and the inflation is not very high.
05:27 So I think it's OK.
05:28 Will the Ma-Gu trend rebound in the near future?
05:31 The stock market analysts of the two interviews
05:33 believe that it mainly depends on two points.
05:35 First, the US Federal Reserve's
05:37 two-day meeting on the market
05:38 will determine whether the holiday period
05:39 will be temporarily suspended.
05:41 Second, it is to observe the development of the tail war.
05:44 This war will have a huge impact
05:46 on the US-Japan trade.
05:48 Will this trend continue?
05:50 The two main reasons are the trend
05:52 of the US Federal Reserve.
05:54 If the US Federal Reserve
05:55 still maintains the previous
05:57 more hawkish trend,
06:00 then the so-called
06:02 zero-level decline or weakening trend
06:04 should continue.
06:06 This so-called Israel-Hamas
06:08 tail conflict
06:09 will lead to many funds closing,
06:12 such as gold and US dollars.
06:14 So we also need to pay close attention
06:17 to whether the tail war
06:19 will cause the entire Middle East
06:22 to become more turbulent.
06:24 This will also lead to
06:25 not only the Ringgit market,
06:26 but also the global currency market
06:28 will have a major impact.
06:31 We can know on October 1
06:32 whether the US-Japan trade will be suspended
06:33 or will be suspended in December.
06:35 Maybe this is the end.
06:37 So if we start talking about the cut-off tomorrow,
06:40 I believe the US dollar will start to go down.
06:41 When the Ma-Bi starts to rise,
06:43 the global credit markets
06:45 will start to fight against the US dollar.
06:47 The situation will be reversed.
06:50 From a medium-to-long-term perspective,
06:55 although the Ma-Bi's trend
06:56 is not as pessimistic as we imagined,
06:58 Wu Junsheng,
06:59 the head of the Fenglong Investment Bank's retail research,
07:02 believes that if the global turmoil continues to worsen,
07:04 the Ma-Bi will continue to fall.
07:06 Although our country is a country
07:08 that focuses on exports,
07:09 the external factors are weak,
07:11 which will also cause the basic face of the enterprise
07:13 to be affected.
07:14 Because the previous year's level fell,
07:16 but the global economy is relatively stable,
07:19 so the problem is not too serious.
07:21 But now,
07:22 the import price of goods from around the world has increased.
07:25 This will not only further increase domestic inflation,
07:28 but also affect the consumption of local people
07:29 and affect the confidence index of Chinese people and enterprises.
07:32 These factors are definitely more than
07:35 a good thing for the destruction of the domestic stock market.
07:38 However, two witnesses also believe that
07:39 although foreign capital is selling a large amount of Ma-Bi,
07:41 the overall stock market is in a low place.
07:43 But as it falls,
07:45 there is often a certain technical rebound.
07:47 Those who have invested or are investing
07:50 can take some opportunities from it.
07:52 So at this time when the big international situation
07:54 is out of control,
07:55 as an investor,
07:56 how should you operate your capital
07:59 or keep the minimum amount of assets in your hands?
08:02 Remember to stay tuned for tomorrow's special report.
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