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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 >> Donnie, just from the game approach here with Texas as greater than a dollar and
00:07 a half favorite at home.
00:08 What is your opening thought entering the opening game of the 2023 World Series?
00:14 >> Well, two aces are on the mound, but
00:16 only one of these pitchers actually performing like the ace that we expected.
00:20 That's Nathan Eovaldi.
00:21 Now, can Zach Allen snap back into form and dominate?
00:23 Yeah, he could do that.
00:24 But Ben, I know you've brought this up multiple times on the show here.
00:27 Zach Allen at home versus Zach Allen away.
00:31 Zach Allen's gonna be on the road tonight.
00:32 And if we're just being honest with ourselves,
00:34 doesn't really factor all that well for him.
00:36 122 batters, Ben, he's faced over the past 30 days in Major League Baseball.
00:41 The combined ISO between lefty and righty batters, that's a 200.
00:44 How about the weighted on base percentage combined?
00:47 361.
00:48 Doesn't sound like much of an ace to me at this point.
00:50 And also, aces, what are they typically known for?
00:53 Getting strikeouts, not getting guys on base.
00:56 How about Zach Allen?
00:57 Average for the season, 25%.
00:59 Last 30 days, that's dipped to 16% as a strikeout rate.
01:03 Now, we're gonna factor in what makes the most sense here.
01:06 And I talked about it so many times already.
01:08 The Arizona Diamondbacks with the game plan for the Philadelphia Phillies,
01:10 avoid the big batters and the big bats here.
01:13 Make the other guys beat you.
01:14 We'll get to that in just a second.
01:16 But let's break down Zach Allen on the mound and
01:18 what that means tonight in this ball game.
01:20 Left-handed batters, 54 he's faced, Ben, over the past 30 days.
01:24 A 255 iso, a 430 weighted on base percentage.
01:28 Flipped that over to the right side, a 159 iso, very manageable for a pitcher.
01:33 A weighted on base percentage, 305, equally as manageable here.
01:37 So you're focused on the left-handed bats tonight in this lineup, and
01:40 they're gonna get started quickly here.
01:42 Corey Seeger, his last month against right-handed pitchers on the mound, Ben.
01:45 64 batters he's faced, a 241 iso and a 411 weighted on base percentage.
01:50 Right behind him, another left-handed batter,
01:53 Evan Carter, 57 at bats against right-handed pitching over the past month.
01:56 A 267 iso and a 447 weighted on base percentage.
02:01 Now also here's the key ingredient with the lineup tonight here,
02:04 as we're looking at the Rangers.
02:05 Not official yet, but what we're anticipating.
02:07 Simeon Seeger, Carter, and Garcia.
02:10 You're going to have to pitch to at least one or two of those guys.
02:13 Cuz let's just say Simeon gets on base.
02:15 Now you bring up the left-handed batter, Corey Seeger.
02:17 If you work around him, that's two runners on base now for
02:20 another left-handed batter in Evan Carter.
02:22 As we just told you, the statistics against him.
02:24 It's going to be interesting to see how they handle the first four guys in
02:28 the lineup.
02:28 How they handle the Phillies first four guys.
02:30 We're not pitching this warper.
02:31 We're not pitching the harbor.
02:32 Good luck here, Trey Turner.
02:34 Good luck, Alec Boehm.
02:35 And it worked out in their favor.
02:36 Fascinating matchups to start the game tonight for me, Ben.
02:39 At least from a Texas batting perspective.
02:41 [MUSIC]