Latin American Vote Tobías Belgrano, Political Analyst
In Argentina, citizens elect national and provincial authorities. Let´s listen Tobías Belgrano, Political Analyst who brings some insights on this process. teleSUR
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00:00 We were just seeing what is at stake in this first round of elections in Argentina to begin
00:04 our analysis of the evening.
00:07 While we await for the special results, we receive our guest political analyst, Tobias
00:13 Belgrano from Buenos Aires.
00:15 Welcome Tobias to Latin American Votes.
00:18 Thanks for having me again, once again.
00:23 Yes, Tobias joined us on our last edition of Latin American Votes while we followed
00:27 the second presidential debate.
00:29 So Tobias, you are joining us from Argentina.
00:32 How was your experience in this electoral day?
00:36 Well, today's election was a peaceful day.
00:42 There were no major incidents except for the Santa Fe province.
00:45 There was a major flood in many schools that weren't able to vote because of the floods.
00:54 But in general, except for minor specific scenarios, the general election was really
01:02 in peace and without any kind of problems in general.
01:11 Right.
01:12 And we are still waiting for first official results to understand what is at stake here
01:19 in the elections in Argentina.
01:22 We come from our last election where the open primaries, which set up a real unique scenario
01:29 in Argentina with the three main forces tying up at around 29% of the votes.
01:37 What do you think is the perspective coming out in this first round of the general elections?
01:43 Are we looking at a similar context or are we looking at a different situation?
01:52 The information that's been released right now are speaking about a major change in the
01:58 numbers from the previous election where Together for Change or Junto por el Cambio, the Macris,
02:06 the center-right coalition is leaning to finish in third place and losing many votes from
02:14 their initial election, especially in major key provinces such as Cordoba that former
02:20 governor Juan Esquiarez, the running for president, seems to have been defeating Together
02:26 for Change and getting in first place.
02:28 That's the information we are receiving without the confirmed result.
02:33 But this is what we call here the witness tables of the schools and of the election.
02:43 So what we're seeing is Sergio Massa getting ahead and getting an advantage from the previous
02:52 election.
02:53 What we also are probably discarding in the current state of events is that La Libertad
03:02 Avanza or Freedom Advances of Javier Millet is winning the first round that was one of
03:06 the possibilities of the general election, and the dispute is if Sergio Massa that was
03:16 because of the economy and the economic problems of the country that's currently suffering,
03:21 and Sergio Massa being the economy minister, if Sergio Massa was able to get more votes
03:29 after the initial election.
03:32 And what we are seeing and the information we are receiving is that Peronism and the
03:41 Union Union por la Patria or Union for Fatherland coalition is getting better results than the
03:48 primaries and we just have to confirm if they are going to finally get in first place or
03:54 get in second place.
03:55 But the scenario of Palo Altar is a reality right now.
03:58 In Buenos Aires province the witness tables of the schools are confirming that Axel Kicillof
04:06 is winning the Buenos Aires province and what we are in stake right now is that in Buenos
04:11 Aires city Leandro Santoro, the candidate of Peronism, might get to a balotage with
04:18 Jorge Macri, the cousin of Mauricio Macri, former president that was selected to become
04:26 chief of governor of Buenos Aires city.
04:30 You were mentioning two key places to understand Argentine politics.
04:36 Let's put this into context for our international viewers.
04:40 There are two different political spaces, territories that are the province of Buenos
04:44 Aires and the city of Buenos Aires, which are electorally different and they are politically
04:50 aligned in a very different way.
04:53 While the province of Buenos Aires, as you were mentioning before, is currently under
04:57 the governorship of Axel Kicillof and he looks he might be heading to reelect that position.
05:05 It is a territory specifically aligned, usually aligned with a Peronist vote, while the city
05:12 of Buenos Aires is usually more right wing voting.
05:16 It has been under the government of Mauricio Macri and his space Together for Change for
05:25 a long, long time.
05:26 So the balotage there, going to a second round in the city of Buenos Aires is also an important
05:34 event that could take place, could be decided this evening.
05:37 Now Tobias, if you will join us, we are now going to go into a little context for our
05:42 viewers to see what's at stake in this election and I'll come back to you.
05:56 We are waiting for the context to run.
06:10 In this Sunday's elections, Argentines are called to elect at the national level the
06:15 positions of President, Vice President, 130 deputies and 24 national senators.
06:20 19 Mercosur parliamentarians were also elected by national district and 24 by regional district.
06:27 At the provincial level, citizens also chose their local candidates for the province of
06:31 Buenos Aires, the autonomous city of Buenos Aires, Catamarca and Entre Rios.
06:37 According to the results, this Sunday's elections will either define the next president of the
06:41 country in case there is a winner in the first round or who will be the two candidates competing
06:46 in the runoff election on November 19th.
06:50 The presidential candidates in the 2023 election are far-right libertarian and newcomer to
06:56 a presidential election, Javier Millet, from the Liberty Advances Party, right-wing candidate
07:01 Patricia Bulbrich, also former Minister of Security in the Mauricio Macri's administration,
07:06 who's running for the Together for Change coalition, center-left Sergio Massa, current
07:12 Minister of Economy and candidate for the ruling coalition union for the homeland, dissident
07:17 Peronist from the province of Cordoba, Juan Schiaretti and Miriam Bregman from the leftist
07:22 front.
07:23 So there we were seeing a little bit of context on what is at stake at this general elections
07:31 in Argentina, and we were joined by Tobias Belgrano in this political analysis of the
07:37 situation.
07:38 We were just mentioning what happened at the primaries in August in Argentina, and particularly
07:44 during this few months, of course, the candidates who were tied at the polls in the primaries
07:50 in August really tried and made an effort to win, to make their electoral base higher,
07:58 knowing that they are competing for the first position.
08:01 Tobias, how have you seen the main candidates?
08:04 We're talking about Javier Millet from Liberty Advances, Sergio Massa from Union for the
08:08 Homeland and Patricia Bulbrich for Together for Change.
08:12 How have you seen them during the last couple of months and how can their actions have affected
08:17 the votes in this month that went from the primary elections to the first general round
08:24 that we are about to get our officials' results right now?
08:28 Well, especially Sergio Massa did great efforts from the economy ministry to reduce and get
08:39 some benefits for workers and formal workers, like the reduction of the income, on the income
08:49 taxes for workers.
08:53 So there were a lot of movements around provinces and governors to promote Sergio Massa's candidacy
09:03 as president.
09:05 And on the other side, Peronist Coalition suffered the backlash of a corruption scandal
09:14 regarding mayor of Lomas de Zamora, Martín Isaurales, that was found in Marbella with
09:21 a vote of a million dollars, that that was also a problem for the Peronist campaign.
09:30 But he was quickly forced to quit his candidacy and to quit his place as chief of staff of
09:40 Governor Axel D. Silov.
09:42 In the case of Patricia Bulbrich, she did a great effort with Carlos Melconian, that
09:47 is an economist, a center-right economist that is very good in explaining the economic
09:57 problems of Argentina for everyone to be able to understand the problems of Argentina, how
10:02 to solve them.
10:03 However, then also the possible candidate for minister of economy was also found in
10:10 a corruption scandal where he was accused of promoting women in political charges for
10:21 sexual exchanges and also for public relations traffic in the Bank of the Nation of Argentina.
10:36 The problems came for Patricia Bulbrich especially.
10:38 Javier Millet didn't move a lot, but the last day he and many candidates of his Liberty
10:45 Advances got a lot of problems with controversial declarations like one of his deputies, Lidia
10:55 Lemoine, claimed that fathers that didn't want to, there was the need of a law to make
11:04 fathers being able to quit the parentship of their children.
11:08 So that's one of the cases that made backlash in Liberty Advances.
11:17 You were mentioning this last stage of Javier Millet, and many, many political analysts
11:25 were discussing how after the results in the open primaries, the most logical place for
11:32 Javier Millet, who was maybe an unexpected winner in those polls, to take a low position,
11:43 to take a step back from his most outrageous statements.
11:47 And some political analysts suggested that he tried to do that, although many of his
11:55 members continued talking.
11:57 He was also in the center of a lot of international discussion.
12:02 He made statements regarding the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro.
12:07 He talked about the possible cutting off relationship with Brazil and China, which also put him
12:15 on the spotlight again.
12:17 And in the debate, of course, he was once again put on the spotlight.
12:21 And once he is now perceived as a possible real candidate after the primaries, what have
12:29 you perceived the public opinion to turn on Millet?
12:33 Do you think he still has the support that was shown at the open primaries?
12:39 Or do you think that has shifted in some way?
12:42 Well, as we were saying before, the policies implemented by the Ministry of Economy and
12:48 the Minister of Economy, which is the candidate of Peronism, clearly has had an effect on
12:56 voters and voters' opinions in these last periods and in the last few months.
13:03 Also as you were saying, the initial moderation of Javier Millet after getting first in the
13:11 primaries was, came deteriorating, and he became more extreme and more radical in his
13:20 declarations like we were saying before, like in the general debate, when he talked about
13:25 the dictatorship and in the, as many of you were saying before, the uniform singularization
13:26 that affects also in the region, like countries like Brazil that are not interested in having
13:27 Javier Millet winning.
13:28 But also the United States is also really not interested in having a new Bolsonaro or
13:44 a new Donald Trump in the region.
13:47 So also there are many interested in the international level of Javier Millet, don't get into the
13:53 presidency.
13:56 Also China, as you were correctly saying, China is not interested in seeing Javier Millet
14:02 cutting relationships with China and getting a more unstable Argentina, that it's in a
14:08 position where it, especially the international powers, are interested in having Argentina
14:15 exporting its primary goods, lithium and oil and soybean, and we cannot move forward in
14:23 like cutting off relationships with Brazil and with China.
14:28 So there are many international interests that are against Javier Millet getting the
14:35 presidency, especially that's what we are talking about when we think what is at risk
14:43 in this election, particularly for the region and for the geopolitical stance of Argentina
14:48 in the present.
14:50 Exactly.
14:51 And when we say that this is a key election for the country and for the region, as you
14:57 were just saying, we're talking about this kind of proposals that were brought by some
15:04 of the candidates like Javier Millet, which affected not only the national politics, but
15:09 also possible international relationships, as you were just mentioning.
15:14 That is why that factor, together with the idea, as you were just saying, of having a
15:20 new Bolsonaro, a new Trump, and what that means for the political scenario worldwide.
15:28 We are talking about a political scenario in which Argentina, for example, has just
15:34 been accepted at the BRICS group, with all the importance that that entails.
15:39 And the first statements that Javier Millet made regarding this were that he wasn't interested
15:47 in joining the group, a group that of course is not only a political alliance, but also
15:53 entails a lot of economic commerce exchange.
15:58 And not only Millet, also Bulrich spoke against this joining the BRICS group.
16:04 So there's a lot of things that involve not only Argentina, but also the region and the
16:10 world that are at stake at this event in Argentina, this electoral event.
16:16 We are following the first round of the presidential elections.
16:20 And let's recall, let's tell our viewers that we are defining the next presidential authorities
16:27 for the next period that will start this December 10th of 2023 and will end on 2027.
16:35 But also there is a big chance, given the numbers that we saw at the primaries and given
16:42 the numbers that unofficially are circulating, we still haven't had the official first results,
16:51 the preliminary results.
16:54 There's a possibility that, as you were mentioning, we are not going to have a definitive winner
16:58 tonight.
16:59 We are waiting on that possibility.
17:02 If a definitive winner is not chosen, Argentina will head into a runoff on November 19th.
17:09 And let's recall what are the requisites to effectively win today on the first round of
17:16 elections.
17:18 According to Argentine law, the Argentines can elect a president in the first round only
17:24 if the most voted candidate surpasses the 45% margin of the ballot affirmative votes,
17:33 or if he surpasses the 40% mark but has a difference of 10% with the second candidate.
17:40 So that is what we are going to closely follow as soon as we get the preliminary results,
17:47 which are actually announced in just a few minutes.
17:50 So we will bring all the important news to our viewers.
17:54 So Tobias, we were talking about Mille, we were talking about what could have shifted
17:59 in a vote towards Mille.
18:01 We still do not have confirmation if that vote actually grew, stayed the same or lowered,
18:08 even if there are some rumors coming from electoral schools that it might be lower than
18:15 it was at the primaries.
18:16 Let's focus on some of the other candidates.
18:19 For example, the candidate for the ruling coalition, Sergio Maza, which had a pretty
18:26 rough couple of months after the primary elections.
18:31 There was a devaluation.
18:36 Inflation continues to increase.
18:38 But Maza, as you were saying, had a lot of new measures to propose.
18:43 We talked about this a little bit during the debate.
18:46 He proposed different things to target the specific sectors of society in order to counteract
18:54 the inflation.
18:56 How have you seen Sergio Maza in these last few days and months as a candidate?
19:04 Well, what's interesting also, speaking about the debate, that was what we discussed in
19:11 our previous encounter.
19:12 Sergio Maza, we think about the debate, was shown as the most presidentable and the most
19:19 logical candidate and rational election in the debate, especially because we saw Patricia
19:26 Buric having problems in communicating her ideas and in communicating her policies, while
19:34 Javier Mille was also showing radicalism and extremism, as we said before, where he should
19:39 have shown more moderation for getting more voters from different coalitions and parties.
19:50 In the last few days also, in his final rally, Javier Mille said that he wasn't in the need
19:58 of voters from other coalitions, like Punto Together for Change and Together for Homeland.
20:08 He said that he wouldn't need them and they can keep their failures.
20:13 So he was despising the other voters to come and vote for him.
20:20 We are seeing how this affected Javier Mille, but also how it benefited Sergio Maza, especially
20:26 at the debate where he had everything to lose in the debate, where he was posing as Minister
20:33 of Economy of a country with a strong devaluation in the last few months and a strong increase
20:43 in the levels of inflation.
20:44 So Sergio Maza is now shown as the rational candidate and as the strong candidate, and
20:52 this devaluation and these high levels of inflation were compensated by different policies,
20:58 as we said before, with the income tax for wages for workers.
21:04 So many of the workers that previously didn't vote or were angry with Sergio Maza were compensated
21:09 in this devaluation and this increase of inflation.
21:13 So Javier Mille was shown as extremist and radical, while Patricia Bullrich was shown
21:20 as incapable of communicating her idea and her policies, but Sergio Maza was still kept
21:27 firm as rational and logic choice.
21:30 So that's why I think he increased and he got a better performance in these elections.
21:40 Exactly.
21:42 And we continue going through, before we get the officials' results, we continue going
21:46 through this basic, this important key issues that undergo Argentine politics for our viewers
21:53 to understand what's at stake in these elections and also what to look for when the official
21:58 results start coming up.
22:00 What are the important political spaces in which the main candidates are debating?
22:06 What are the possible outcomes for the different coalitions?
22:11 So we were talking about Mille first and the possibility of his space either gaining or
22:17 losing some of his voters.
22:19 We were also talking about Maza and how he, against all odds, managed to apparently make
22:28 a good candidate position, even if, as you were saying, it was a very, very tough position
22:34 for Sergio Maza being the minister of economy of a country that is in the middle of a very
22:40 delicate economic situation, dealing with the IMF and its restrictions.
22:46 And it still has managed to apparently, we will confirm this with the official results,
22:51 but maybe at least maintained or having increased his potential votes.
22:57 So let's talk about a little bit about Patricia Bullrich from Together for Change.
23:02 She was elected as candidate for the opposition coalition at the primaries.
23:08 She came in second, if we count the complete coalition, the votes of the complete coalition
23:15 at the primaries, little after below Mille and just barely above Sergio Maza.
23:23 And what do we expect now that she is heading the list?
23:28 Just recently, days ago, she incorporated Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, who was her main,
23:36 the other leader of the coalition.
23:38 She incorporated him into her future possible cabinet, obviously as a way of trying to increase
23:48 her electoral base and trying to retain those votes that were actually destined to Horacio
23:53 Rodriguez Larreta, who did not end up being the coalition's candidate.
23:57 So how do you see this?
24:00 What do you expect for the Together for Change vote to be now that we are minutes away from
24:05 getting our official results?
24:07 Do you think that she might have succeeded in retaining those votes?
24:12 Do you think that Together for Change might have lost votes either to Mille or to Maza?
24:19 She was very debated, very, very questioned in the debate.
24:22 As you said, she tried to gain force, bringing Melconian, as you also mentioned, as a possible
24:29 minister of economy.
24:31 But Mille Corian was also involved in very big scandals during the last few days with
24:38 a series of audios that came out into public that related him to possible areas of corruption
24:48 and very serious corruption charges.
24:50 So how do you see the Together for Change space in this first round of election?
24:57 Well, the main problem, I believe, for Together for Change coalition was the internal problems
25:05 and internal debates between different actors, especially between the radical part of the
25:12 coalition, I mean the radical party of Argentina, that is another partner of PRO and the Macri
25:22 Party inside Together for Change.
25:26 There were internal debates with the radicals against the Macris, especially in the problems
25:33 that would define an election with, for example, a Balotage scenario with Sergio Maza and Javier
25:40 Mille, of what would the radical voters do that generated a big debate between the radicals
25:47 and the Macris.
25:49 Also the conflict between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Woolrich was extended
25:59 much more longer after the primaries.
26:01 So the incorporation of Rodríguez Larreta just a few days before the election was a
26:10 little late for the Together for Change coalition, and where they kept waiting and where they
26:18 saw how the votes of the moderate voters of Together for Change moved towards Sergio Maza
26:26 and that wasn't able to stop that bleed.
26:31 Also many of the voters of Together for Change moved towards Javier Mille.
26:35 So we are seeing how the scenario of three that Cristina Kirchner-Batist made at the
26:44 beginning of the, a few months ago, it started to become a polarization of two groups between
26:52 Together for Homeland and Liberty Advances.
26:56 Exactly.
26:58 So I want to thank you, Tobias Belgrano, political analyst, who has joined us in this election
27:04 night.
27:05 Thank you for joining Latin American Votes.
27:06 We will continue analyzing with our viewers this special night at the Argentine Politics.
27:13 Thank you very much for having me once again.
27:16 Thank you, Tobias.