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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - As you look at those numbers right there, Donnie,
00:07 minus 132 for the Phils, a total around nine,
00:10 nine and a hook.
00:11 How do you think today's game plays out in Arizona?
00:15 - Yeah, it's gonna be a good one here.
00:17 And by the way, you take a look at that minus 132,
00:19 looking now at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
00:20 we're sitting at a minus 122 price,
00:22 which does seem cheap.
00:23 If you're just going up the first two games of this series,
00:26 now granted, the Phillies had their aces on the mound,
00:28 Aaron Owen also Zach Wheeler pitched phenomenally,
00:31 but they were going up against the aces
00:32 of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
00:34 So let's just say again, equal footing, right?
00:36 The Phillies handily won game one,
00:37 at least won it by a run line,
00:38 then 10 to nothing in a runaway victory in game number two.
00:41 Game number three, go out to the desert here,
00:43 Suarez is still a quality pitcher,
00:45 Fought is a decent pitcher as well.
00:47 So you would figure that, okay,
00:48 if it's gonna be a cancellation on the mound,
00:50 you would go to the one through nines in the bullpen.
00:52 The Phillies clearly have the advantage.
00:54 So why are we only sitting now at a current price
00:56 of the FanDuel Sportsbook at a minus 122?
00:58 If you're just into reading lines,
01:00 you're saying to yourself,
01:01 well, the Arizona Diamondbacks at home,
01:03 change of venue, solid ball club,
01:05 a dog at home, must win situation,
01:06 that's where it pans out.
01:08 But if we're getting into some of the numbers here
01:09 that make the most sense here,
01:11 Fought, as we said, has been decent here as of late.
01:13 But if you are taking a look here, let's go seasonally.
01:16 452 batters that he faced during the season,
01:19 an ISO power number of 246,
01:21 and a weighted on base percentage of 368.
01:23 Both lefty and righty batters elevated
01:25 on both one of those metrics here.
01:28 If we take a look at just the last 30 days,
01:30 75 batters that he's faced here,
01:32 take a look at this.
01:33 Total ISO power number 233,
01:35 weighted on base percentage 359.
01:37 Here's the breakdown and the caveat though.
01:39 Over the past 30 days,
01:40 he's only faced 29 left-handed batters,
01:42 but he's handled them Ben extremely well.
01:44 An 039 ISO and a matchup of a 221
01:48 weighted on base percentage.
01:49 Now you're saying, well, how is that total overall
01:52 through 75 batters so high?
01:53 Well, here it is.
01:54 Right-handed batters have absolutely been crushing him here.
01:57 A 348 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 446
02:01 over his last 46 batters.
02:03 So I know you're gonna line up in this game and go,
02:04 well, Bryce Harper hits anybody.
02:06 And rightfully he does.
02:07 I wouldn't say leave him out of the lineup,
02:08 but if I just told you those metrics here
02:10 where he's really struggled with righties,
02:12 that's where the central focus is going to be.
02:14 Now again, Harper and Schwarber are left-handed batters.
02:17 They have high ISO power numbers against righties,
02:19 but let's break down the right-handed batters.
02:21 Look at Trey Turner, 46 at bats over his last month here
02:24 against right-handed pitching,
02:25 a 405 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 516.
02:29 Look at Nick Castellanos, a 560 ISO
02:32 and a 478 weighted on base percentage.
02:35 There's so many options to go in this lineup.
02:37 But if you're asking me this morning, Donnie,
02:39 give me two just based on the numbers you're looking at
02:41 and just not riding a hot bat like Schwarber or Harper.
02:44 It's going to be Turner and it's going to be Castellanos
02:47 that are must-haves in your lineup tonight.
02:49 (upbeat music)
02:52 (upbeat music)