In einer Woche werden National- und Ständerat neu gewählt: Claude Longchamp spricht mit Nau.ch über die zu erwartenden Resultate bei den Wahlen 2023.
Die Wahlen 2023 finden in einer Woche statt.
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Die Nachrichten kontinuierlich https://buzzngo.org/de
Infos, News & Zeitgeschehen - Internationale Live-Informationen.
Die Wahlen 2023 finden in einer Woche statt.
-
Die Nachrichten kontinuierlich https://buzzngo.org/de
Infos, News & Zeitgeschehen - Internationale Live-Informationen.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 In a week, the National and Standard Council will be re-elected.
00:03 Claude Longchamp speaks with NOW.ch about the expected results in the 2023 elections.
00:11 The 2023 elections will take place in a week.
00:15 Politologist Claude Longchamp has spoken with NOW.ch about his expectations and forecasts.
00:22 There will probably be a turn of trends. The winners of 2019 will become losers, and vice versa.
00:30 The Greens, for example, who experienced a century-long event with 6% more votes in 2019, have to expect losses.
00:39 It can certainly be a trend away from the Greens and towards the SP, says Longchamp.
00:45 The left would remain roughly the same overall, possibly only a little weakened.
00:51 The SVP, on the other hand, which had to put a ballot box in 2019, should come back stronger in the 2023 elections.
01:01 If a party loses 4%, then the rule of thumb is that it will be the other way around in the next elections, explains Claude Longchamp.
01:10 How high the profit will be for the SVP is uncertain.
01:15 Longchamp, however, expects something between 2% or 4%.
01:19 It is also likely that the SP will have a turn of trends, as the last elections had lost a little.
01:26 The middle party, on the other hand, has a difficult forecast.
01:30 After the fusion of the CVP and BDP, one would actually have to talk about a new party.
01:36 The GLP was supposed to be at about the same level, but will probably lose seats, as it had a lot of luck in 2019.
01:46 For the liberals, the curve of the voters in polls has been downwards for some time, says Longchamp.
01:53 The CSD-bargain was probably the turn, Longchamp suspects, because it is being brought into contact with the FDP relatively strongly.
02:02 Nevertheless, he assumes that the FDP could gain seats in the standing council, despite losses in the national council.
02:11 The elections in 2023 were marked by a crisis phenomenon, analyzes Longchamp.
02:18 It is the main word of this legislature, started with the pandemic, continued with the Ukrainian war, now with the war conflict in Israel.
02:28 The structure of issues within the parties has been disturbed again and again.
02:34 On a second level, other issues would have dominated, such as migration to the SVP or the cost of living for the left.
02:43 But these have been used more for self-profiling than for influencing the electorate.
02:49 In any case, percentages will not be relevant, but seat gains, and in these cases only minimal shifts are taken into account.
02:58 The reason for this is the cantons, explains Longchamp, which are mostly relatively small electoral districts.
03:05 In poor-population cantons, there is almost never a change, except for the previous steps.
03:13 In the 14 medium-sized cantons with 2 to 9 seats, such as Lucerne or Jura, there is a limited proportion.
03:21 So it takes a lot for seat shifts.
03:24 Only in 5 or 6 cantons could there be a real change in the elections in 2023,
03:31 either by retreat, power shifts between the parties or simply luck in the distribution of the remaining mandates.
03:39 In larger cantons, such as Zurich, Bern or Watt, national volatility then plays a certain role.
03:47 On a national level, however, this is limited due to the size of the electoral districts.
03:53 Longchamp says that the rhetorical polarization has undoubtedly increased due to the often-complained polarization.
04:00 According to a researcher at the University of Basel, however, the political concepts have not become more polarized, but the identities.
04:09 "A bourgeois person profiles himself as a low-level citizen, while a leftist woman is a feminist," the political scientist explains.
04:17 This has undoubtedly increased as well.