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Most polls have closed in an Australian referendum that will set the tone of relations with the country’s First Nations people for decades to come.

Counting was underway Saturday in several eastern states and territories, with very early results pointing to a possible defeat for the proposal, according to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

Voters are being asked to approve an amendment to the constitution to recognize Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and to create a body – the Voice to Parliament – of Indigenous people to advise the government on matters that affect them.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had called it a “simple proposition,” but months of debate have revealed a complex mix of hostility and apathy toward the proposal on a scale likely to consign the matter to Australia’s long list of referendums that failed to win the popular vote.

To pass, the Voice needs a majority Yes vote nationwide and in at least four of six states – a feat only accomplished in eight of the past 44 referendums since the first was held in 1906.

The last referendum to pass was in 1977, before the arrival of the internet in Australia, and well before the rise of social media that has helped polarize debate and supercharge the spread of misinformation around this vote.

On Thursday – two days before polls closed – a YouGov survey of more than 1,500 prospective voters, gave the No camp a commanding lead of 18 points – 56% to 38% with the remainder undecided– a pattern roughly reflected in several other polls. Voting is compulsory in Australia, so turnout is expected to be high.

For ‘love of country’

A record 17.6 million people are expected to cast a vote, and a result is expected on Saturday evening local time.

If pre-referendum polls prove to be wrong and the referendum passes, it’ll be a monumental upset and a shock victory for Albanese, who has approached the campaign as a personal mission.

This week, he returned to Uluru, the huge rock formation in the country’s center, where Indigenous leaders agreed in 2017 to reach out for constitutional recognition.

Sitting in the dirt holding hands with Indigenous women, his eyes welled with tears as they sang a traditional song.

Explaining the emotional moment to reporters later, Albanese said: “To be able to sit in this red dirt, there was a sense of how big Australia is, our culture, and the incredible privilege.”

Albanese has pitched this vote as an expression of love.

“This is a campaign about love for our fellow Australians, and about respect,” Albanese said. “But it’s also about love of ourselves, whether we have the courage to love what Australia is. It isn’t something that began when a few ships came in 1788. This is Australia, that fullness and richness of our history.”

In the final days of the campaign, Yes campaigners reiterated the message, releasing statements urging people to “choose love over spin”

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Transcript
00:00 Most polls have closed in an Australian referendum that will set the tone of relations with the
00:05 country's First Nations people for decades to come.
00:09 Counting was underway Saturday in several eastern states and territories, with very
00:14 early results pointing to a possible defeat for the proposal, according to the Australian
00:19 Electoral Commission.
00:22 Voters are being asked to approve an amendment to the constitution to recognise Aboriginal
00:27 and Torres Strait Islanders and to create a body a the voice to parliamentaire of indigenous
00:31 people to advise the government on matters that affect them.
00:35 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had called it a simple proposition, but months of debate
00:40 have revealed a complex mix of hostility and apathy toward the proposal on a scale likely
00:45 to consign the matter to Australia's long list of referendums that failed to win the
00:50 popular vote.
00:51 To pass, the voice needs a majority yes vote nationwide and in at least four of six states
00:57 a feat only accomplished in eight of the past 44 referendums since the first was held in
01:02 1906.
01:04 The last referendum to pass was in 1977, before the arrival of the internet in Australia,
01:11 and well before the rise of social media that has helped polarise debate and supercharge
01:16 the spread of misinformation around this vote.
01:19 On Thursday a two days before polls closed a YouGov survey of more than 1,500 prospective
01:26 voters gave the No Camp a commanding lead of 18 points a 56% to 38% with the remainder
01:33 undecided a pattern roughly reflected in several other polls.
01:37 Voting is compulsory in Australia, so turnout is expected to be high.
01:42 For a love of country, a record 17.6 million people are expected to cast a vote, and a
01:48 result is expected on Saturday evening local time.
01:52 If pre-referendum polls prove to be wrong and the referendum passes, it'll be a monumental
01:58 upset and a shock victory for Al-Banazi, who has approached the campaign as a personal
02:03 mission.
02:04 This week, he returned to Uluru, the huge rock formation in the country's centre, where
02:09 indigenous leaders agreed in 2017 to reach out for constitutional recognition.
02:15 Sitting in the dirt holding hands with indigenous women, his eyes welled with tears as they
02:20 sang a traditional song.
02:22 Explaining the emotional moment to reporters later, Al-Banazi said, "To be able to sit
02:28 in this red dirt, there was a sense of how big Australia is, our culture, and the incredible
02:34 privilege.
02:35 Al-Banazi has pitched this vote as an expression of love.
02:39 This is a campaign about love for our fellow Australians, and about respect," Al-Banazi
02:44 said.
02:45 "But it's also about love of ourselves, whether we have the courage to love what Australia
02:50 is.
02:51 It isn't something that began when a few ships came in 1788.
02:56 This is Australia, that fullness and richness of our history."
02:59 In the final days of the campaign, yes campaigners reiterated the message, releasing statements
03:06 urging people to choose love over spin and sending text messages that spoke of the need
03:11 to win hearts and minds.
03:13 Yes leader Noel Pearson, one of the architects of the calls for constitutional change, said
03:19 in a speech to the National Press Club in September that the largest motivation for
03:24 voting yes was the love of country.
03:26 "It is not the love of each other that joins us, it is our mutual love of country a broken
03:31 bar we don't need mutual affection to succeed in this referendum," said Pearson.
03:37 No love for yes campaign.
03:39 However, a leading no campaigner mocked Pearson's speech, accusing the yes campaign of promoting
03:45 empty slogans.
03:46 "The yes campaign, it's the vibe.
03:49 Everything's love.
03:50 Like they've a broken bar had a few joints," Noongai Warren Mundine said to laughs from
03:55 the audience at a no event in Brisbane on the same day as Pearson's address.
04:00 "We are about real solutions, accountability, all the billions of dollars that got spent,
04:06 we want outcomes," said Mundine, a member of the Bundjalung, Gumgar and Nguyen people
04:12 and leader of the Recognise a Better Way campaign group.
04:15 The voice was conceived to get better outcomes for the most disadvantaged indigenous Australians
04:21 among 800,000 people a or about 3.8% of Australia's total population of 26 million.
04:29 Of 19 targets aimed to close the gap between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians,
04:34 some statistics are worsening, including the standard of development for children when
04:39 they start school, the number of children in out-of-home care, and the rates of adult
04:45 imprisonment and suicide.
04:47 If the referendum fails, Albanese said he will respect the democratic vote of the nation
04:52 and won't legislate a voice to parliament.
04:55 "I don't believe that it would be appropriate to then go and say, 'A-oh, well, you've had
05:00 your say, but we're going to legislate anyway,'" he told the told the Australian Broadcasting
05:06 Corporation's Insiders programme on Sunday.
05:10 If the referendum fails to pass, there'll be no change in the constitution or policy
05:15 governing indigenous affairs.
05:17 Mundine told his audience in late September that the No campaign would be seeking better
05:22 outcomes through greater economic participation and accountability.
05:26 "When we get up in the morning on the 15th of October, after we've defeated this voice,
05:32 we're going to make those people accountable," Mundine said.
05:35 "We're going to make those kids get to school, we're going to make people get into jobs and
05:41 run businesses and invest in their communities, and we're going make their communities safe
05:46 a broken bar and make sure those family and community values are back there," he said,
05:52 without explaining how that would be done.
05:54 No more virtue signalling, no more dividing us," he continued.
05:58 "We're all going to put our shoulder to the wheel and we're going to make all these politicians
06:03 and all these people do the job and make sure they spend our money."

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