Das deutsche Volkseinkommen schrumpft in diesem Jahr um 0,6%

Eine neue Prognose geht davon aus, dass die deutsche Wirtschaftsleistung in diesem Jahr insgesamt schrumpfen wird.

Transcript

00:00 A new forecast assumes that German economic performance will shrink overall this year.

00:06 Industry and consumption are recovering slower than expected.

00:11 Germany is fighting to take over the role of the economic engine in the EU again.

00:17 According to the five leading economic institutes, which are making their joint forecast twice a year,

00:24 the GDP will probably drop by 0.6% in 2023.

00:31 Rising interest rates are calling for their tribute to the economy and high inflation is pushing consumption.

00:38 The previous forecast for spring 2023 was based on a stagnation.

00:44 "The most important reason for the revision is that industry and private consumption are recovering slower than we expected in spring,"

00:53 Oliver Holtemüller, vice president and head of the department of macroeconomics at the Institute for Economic Research Hall, IWH, says.

01:01 Germany has been in a downturn for more than a year,

01:05 which is mainly due to the strong increase in energy prices in 2022.

01:11 The decline of cheap natural gas sources like Russia put the country's energy-intensive industries in a difficult position.

01:20 The inflation has increased by over 8% and consumption has been at a low level.

01:28 At the same time, high interest rates have hit the construction industry very hard.

01:33 The economic atmosphere is bad, which is partly due to the increased political uncertainty.

01:41 Overall, the indicators indicate that production in the third quarter of 2023 was back to normal again.

01:50 Good news on the horizon. Growth will increase again.

01:54 However, price increases have been followed by wage increases, energy prices have fallen,

02:00 and exporters have partially passed on their higher costs, so that the purchasing power can return, according to economists.

02:08 Therefore, they expect the decline to continue until the end of the year.

02:14 In the last quarter of the year, growth is expected to increase again, by a modest 0.2%.

02:20 For 2024, the institutes, four German and one Austrian, predict a GDP growth of 1.3%, 1.5% compared to before.

02:33 For 2025, a GDP growth of 1.5% is predicted.

02:41 The joint economic forecast is one of the most important indicators that the German Ministry of Economy is oriented to.

02:49 It is created by the IFO Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Institute for World Economy in Kiel,

02:57 the RWI, Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute for Economic Research.

03:04 [BLANK_AUDIO]