Hoosier Roundtable: Xavier Johnson Player Preview, Does Indiana Have Any Chance Against Maryland?
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00:00 Hello everybody and welcome to the Hoosier Roundtable podcast.
00:04 I am your host Daniel Olinger, joined as I often am by my good co-host Jack Ankeny.
00:09 Jack, how are you doing today?
00:10 Doing pretty good. How about you Daniel?
00:12 Uh, still trying to comprehend what Indiana did in that game against Akron.
00:18 Also, we're going to have to move on from that, but we've got two things for you all here today.
00:22 First, we're going to continue our player preview series for the Indiana men's basketball season.
00:27 We did Trey Galloway last week. This time we are doing Xavier Johnson, his back courtmate,
00:32 who kind of fits considering we also talked about X a lot during the Trey Galloway
00:36 preview. And then we'll get into Indiana versus Maryland for this upcoming Saturday.
00:40 So with that, I think I'll throw it over to you first, Jack.
00:44 Just if you want to recap what X kind of did during,
00:47 like what you took away from X's 11 game season last year, obviously cut short, and then
00:51 just what fans should know going into this year for him.
00:54 Right. So X wasn't quite as good at the start of last year as I think a lot of people expected him
01:01 to be. And I don't think that's some major concern to say here's an 11 game sample size where he
01:07 didn't play outstanding or, you know, to the best of his ability, but still, you know, in those 11
01:15 games averaged 9.9 points, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.3 rebounds. The concerning number a little bit
01:26 is that 2.8 turnovers, which is the second least amount in his five years, but still not a great
01:34 number. Shot 41% from the field, which is a little bit concerning, 37% from three, which is his
01:43 the second best of his career behind his first year with Indiana at 38.3. And I think if you
01:50 want to kind of go through what happened in some of those early season games, I think there was
01:58 definitely some level of a learning curve with playing with Jalen Huchafino. And I know they
02:05 really didn't play a whole lot together. Jalen was dealing with some early season injuries,
02:11 so they never really got to play together. But I think that could also contribute to it where,
02:18 you know, maybe in practice or a lot of the game plans leading up to the season or a lot of what
02:22 they did was, hey, we're going to run this two guard lineup and it never really came to fruition.
02:29 But, you know, I think if you look through some of those games, you know, his two highest scoring
02:34 nights were against in that win at Xavier, who turned out to be, I think they were a three seed
02:38 in the NCAA tournament. 23.7 rebounds, two assists, four turnovers, made both of his three
02:47 point attempts, seven for eight shooting. He played awesome in that game. You know, you can
02:53 always expect him to play solid on ball defense. And then in that North Carolina game, 20 points,
02:59 eight rebounds, four assists, two steals, two turnovers, shot six for 10, or sorry, six for 12
03:06 overall, missed all of his three, all three of his three point attempts, made eight free throws.
03:12 He did a good job of kind of getting, I think it was RJ Davis might've been in some foul trouble
03:17 in that game. But, you know, I think if you look at that small sample size, his two best games are
03:25 against North Carolina and Xavier, which I think kind of levels out some of that concern where,
03:31 you know, he didn't play well against Arizona, shot two for not, or sorry, three for 13 in that
03:38 game, had 11 assists and 11 points, but did not shoot the ball well. And then in that Kansas game
03:46 where he got hurt in nine minutes, he didn't score, missed his two shot attempts. And that game
03:53 really got ugly kind of right from the start in those nine minutes he played. Obviously a really
03:59 tough place to play and everything like that. And that Kansas team was really good, but,
04:03 so kind of two really strong performances against two really good teams and two pretty rough outings.
04:10 So that's kind of the recap of last year. I think a lot of Indiana fans remember Xavier Johnson for
04:18 who he was in the late portion of the 2021-22 season. - I had a bit on that, because I think
04:26 we talked about when we were discussing the rankings, it was like him versus Boo Booey versus
04:31 Michigan State guard, whose name is escaping me. - That's Walker.
04:36 - Yeah, and basically it was during those last 10 games of the 2021-22 season where Indiana kind of
04:43 had their run through the Big Ten tournament and kind of just made their way into the NCAA tournament.
04:49 X scored 16 points, 24, 24, 13, 18, 17, 13, 20, 10, 11. And there's obviously a much bigger
04:58 things than just raw points per game, but still getting a double digits out there, really not
05:02 having it that much of the year is pretty impressive. Just like as anyone watched, he was
05:06 like really giving some other teams some problems. Anytime you watch old X clips, it's just, he's
05:12 really fast. Like very, very fast with the ball in his hands, puts a lot of pressure on defenses.
05:17 Fine passer, not even like, he kind of has the thing where he doesn't even have to be that gifted
05:21 of a passer just because he creates so much stress of the defense of how fast he gets to the rim.
05:26 They kind of have to move, which opens up passes for him. So he can really create out of that.
05:32 And he has had a weird like scoring career in terms of, you said how 9.9 points per game last
05:37 year, that's his lowest of his career. But like the most points per game he's ever scored was
05:41 around 15 his very first year in college basketball with Pitt, which was now like five years ago. And
05:47 that's, it's gonna be an important thing for X now. X as Mike Woodson said at Media Day is an old
05:52 man in the landscape of college basketball, I believe 24 years old, if that's right.
05:56 Yeah, this is his sixth year. Yeah.
05:57 So yeah, X is just old, which is like, it very actually, it can be a very underrated benefit
06:04 again, just grown men playing against like teenagers or early 20s guys. The fact that
06:08 X is two years from having to be kicked off his like parents insurance is like,
06:13 is like actually can be very helpful for Indiana this season. And I think he's really changed how
06:19 this also changed how what the outlook of last season was how that became
06:23 that last year became the Jalen Hood, Shavino and Trey Jackson Davis show.
06:27 And this team would have felt so different if it Trey Galloway was the only returning starter and
06:32 a guy who only started because X got hurt. It's changes so much about this team was like, I we've
06:38 mentioned it could probably be a transition year for Indiana, but we're saying like keeping the
06:41 level like how low do you think? Well, I mean, well, it might be too hard of a term, but like,
06:46 what do you think expectations would have been like if say X couldn't have gotten like that
06:50 way from the NCAA and couldn't come back like it everyone be looking at like, man, it's gonna be
06:54 hard to there's just not not a lot of returning talent here.
06:57 Yeah. So I think if there's a situation where they don't have X or Jalen, like,
07:02 you're entering this season with with, you know, pretty, pretty low x, right? I mean,
07:09 I think I think in that situation, Indiana might have gone out and got it, you know,
07:13 really tried to get a point guard in the portal. So, you know, we don't know if I don't know if
07:17 Woodson would have entered the year with just, you know, Gabe Cups and Trey is kind of the starting
07:22 backcourt. But I also think it's kind of fair to wonder if if X was healthy all year, you know,
07:31 when he got hurt, Jalen got the keys to the offense and really took it and ran with it and
07:37 boosted his draft stock because before the season Jalen was kind of like, you know, he's probably
07:42 not a one and done, but maybe he is, you know, I wonder if X is healthy the all year if Jalen
07:48 builds himself into into a one and done, you know, I think it's fair to say that he might not have
07:55 and that if X was healthy all last year that Jalen might still be here. You know, he wasn't a guy that
08:01 was a guaranteed lottery pick or first round pick when he got to Indiana. And if he didn't have that
08:09 opportunity when X got hurt, there's a chance that he comes back for two years and his sophomore year
08:15 is where we kind of see the breakout that he had last year just as a result of, you know, being
08:22 able to run the offense and everything. So I think it's it's kind of hard to say, like, you know,
08:27 what next year would have looked like if that injury never happened, because maybe Jalen's back,
08:32 you know, maybe Indiana gets a different guard in the portal. But that also doesn't understate just
08:39 how important it is to have X back this year, because, you know, you mentioned that stretch at
08:45 the end of 21-22. I think it was fair to say that he was Indiana's best player kind of in that last
08:51 10-game stretch, even more than Trace Jackson Davis. Obviously, Trace was still good in that
08:58 stretch, but X was kind of what ran everything and his defense and everything like that. So
09:06 it's hugely important. I think Mike Woodson, especially, like he's a coach that places so
09:11 much emphasis on the point guard and, you know, and I think he feels really comfortable having X
09:18 back. And it's obviously a huge addition for this team, because, you know, if you don't have him,
09:24 you know, if he gets hurt again this year or if you don't have him like.
09:28 Expectations pretty much go out the window. Yeah, so I wanted to touch on two things that
09:35 like these are very granular, specific things about his game, like we're getting to the preview
09:39 here is one thing he's at least in his 11 game sample last year, which obviously it's a really,
09:44 really hard to take away too much from that. Barely. I don't even know if they had a big
09:47 10 game by that point. Yeah, I don't think they. I think they might have had, though.
09:51 I think they had those Rutger. They had like those two December.
09:55 Yeah, they played Rutgers in Nebraska, but that Rutgers game they didn't have Jalen.
10:02 And then that Nebraska game, I think that was when Trace had his triple double and they.
10:08 Beat Nebraska pretty easily. Yeah, but still like basically X missed pretty much everything.
10:16 The meaningful portion of Big 10 play and everyone you could say so it's hard to take
10:20 away too much, but some stats like from last year he ran 45 pick and roll possessions according
10:26 to synergy or at least ones that they had tracked with an outcome and on those they had 0.933 points
10:32 per possession for Indiana, which is 85th percentile. Just very good there. Obviously,
10:37 a lot of that comes from being with Trace Jackson Davis. He was a was an could be an explosive
10:42 wild threat. Had some interesting short rule game. Indiana wasn't as perfectly spaced team
10:46 last year, but. You know the few times he was playing around Hodge, Fino, Miller,
10:50 Cop and a few of those guys like not the worst spacing in the world either,
10:54 but clearly had some pick and roll capability, especially there was
10:57 as long as he's healthy. Definitely would predict that he's going to lead Indiana and
11:01 pick and roll ball handler possessions this year and then you mentioned how his field goal
11:05 percentage is low and the main reason I found for that was just at the rim. He shot 16 for 34
11:10 according to synergy, which is pretty terrible like you. You cannot be shooting that well there.
11:16 I mean a lot of that. Maybe he was like the injuries leading up to it, so it's just like
11:19 he wasn't fully healthy. Maybe those 11 games and when you get to that point, I mean,
11:23 it could have been something there, but like. It just has to. That has to be better like you
11:29 don't need to be the world's best at room finisher, but you cannot be missing over half of your shots
11:34 at the rim. You're just blowing easy possessions like and it's great that he can get to the room
11:38 with his speed. Like I think that's something he brings that trade Galloway cannot as much
11:42 tray has to take a lot of slurs to trade. Really does not have the handle or the speed
11:46 to get all the way to the rim, whereas X does, but he does need to find ways either.
11:51 Whether it's slowing down using more craft, maybe just having better touch, whatever it is like
11:56 his at room numbers probably need to get a lot better in this upcoming season.
12:00 Yeah, I think that's a good point and I think something I'm really curious to see with X is
12:05 I think a lot of his success you mentioned the pick and roll last year and then kind of.
12:11 It seems like in that 2122 season, him and trace really figured out the pick and roll
12:17 towards the end of the year, and that's really how they had a lot of success.
12:20 So I'm curious to see kind of. First, how long it takes for him and Kalel where to kind of build
12:28 that chemistry in the pick and roll? 'cause I also think there could be a pick and pop element to it
12:33 that Indiana didn't have with trace just because. He was never really willing to
12:41 to take jump shots, but I think Kalel will be. I think I think he'll do it a little bit. I really
12:47 it's the same thing I've said before. I think low can do that. I don't think low of her shoot
12:52 enough or he will not shoot enough threes or shoot those threes quite accurately enough to
12:58 really change how defenses guard him, which really didn't change too much for X.
13:02 I'm very interested in if they can get like I said, playing Mackenzie and Baco at the 4
13:07 and then pick him out from Mackenzie. Those I think could be especially. I think Mackenzie
13:11 will at least fire it often enough that it could really 'cause then if you have to like you can't
13:16 if Mackenzie becomes a big pick and pop threat, whoever is guarding the screen,
13:20 who is ever guarding Mackenzie as you set the screen cannot like hang with X as long as they
13:23 want to. 'cause they're worried about getting back out it. It would start to change our defense
13:27 guard. They probably have to start resorting to some switches which could get X up and some
13:31 favorable matches. We get Mackenzie in favorable matches so like that was kind of something I was
13:35 going to get into is who could be X's best pick and roll partner this year or ball screen partner.
13:39 I mean, close probably gonna be the most often one I would have to bet and I think he could be
13:44 good. I'm very interested to see though if they can get a lot of pick and pop going with Mackenzie
13:48 and X. Yeah, that's a good point and I think they'll even try to do it with Renu too because
13:53 he can step out a little bit and he didn't shoot a ton of outside shots last year, but
13:59 he did a little bit more in some of those non-conference games and I think when you
14:04 talk about his big picture development like that's something that he's talked about wanting to do
14:08 a lot of time. Everyone shoots threes and warmups, but you see him doing it a lot
14:13 that you don't necessarily see from every power forward or center. So I think kind of at the base
14:20 level, whether it's Colelle or Renu or Mbako, there's a lot of different ways that Indiana
14:26 can run the pick and roll with X that they might not have with Trace or Race. Race was
14:33 willing to some level to shoot threes, but Trace not really. So I think that's kind of going to be
14:39 really interesting to look at how X kind of develops that pick and roll chemistry
14:44 offensively and just what that opens up because I think you made a good point too about
14:51 defenses not being able to kind of sag off and protect X's driving. They would have to
14:57 guard whoever's setting the screen, which could be interesting too because X is so,
15:03 you know, he has that kind of one or two step burst where he can get to the rim easily. So
15:07 I think Woods and Will want to run a ton of that pick and roll. Like I think you mentioned
15:13 at media day that was, I think he said like 53% or something of their offense last year.
15:18 You know, that's what they want to do. So it's going to be a big part of what X does this season.
15:22 Yeah. And just another part of like, if how they're going to make defenses guard them,
15:28 this is what we mentioned during Trace kind of thing. But the biggest concern for this Indiana
15:32 team is with the offense is the spacing is the way like teams will guard them with what we think
15:38 it's not like, I mean, they're not decrepit of shooters entirely, but it's a team where the
15:42 shooting is probably the biggest concern and how our team's just going to like pack the pain against
15:46 them saying, we don't think you can shoot well enough to make us change this. And X is probably
15:51 the one who his catch and shoots matter the least just because he's going to have the ball in his
15:55 hands. Most of the times on the perimeter, it doesn't really matter too much of X like fire
16:00 stuff. Like if he gets it kicked out to him open, I think he will. And he's shot perfectly fine on
16:04 those. Like, but as I've said before, it's kind of, he's not going to get a ton of volume because
16:09 he does have an awkward shooting form. It takes his guide hand off the ball very early. It's a
16:13 weird shot. X is a weird looking shot. Very weird looking shot. Again, like I'm saying,
16:18 guide him like his left hand is coming off the ball very early, kind of pushes that one out.
16:23 Yeah. He has it right in front of him too. Yeah. Yeah. He has this, he made it okay. It just,
16:28 it makes it very awkward off the dribble to when you have a shot that's that set and not very fluid,
16:33 it's very hard to go from dribbling as fast as X does and know a pull up. So I would not expect
16:38 a huge like pull game that could hurt him in the pick and roll game. Just especially depending on
16:42 who his screeners and how they get that worked out. Teams will probably go under against him
16:45 sometimes, which can really hurt your offense if you're doing unders and pick and rolls and can't
16:49 hurt them. So it's more just X finding ways to still be the same player he is in ball screens,
16:54 which he is very fast. He is very good ball handler. He can probably still figure that out.
16:58 So I would not be, I just say X doesn't really need to change how he shoots or his volume.
17:04 Whereas so much of like Trey Galloway's value this year is probably going to be determined by how he
17:09 finds ways to either up his three point aggressiveness or his volume on maintaining
17:13 a decent level of accuracy. X just as long as he's kind of the same story he's always been,
17:19 but can still find the same workarounds he has in the past, even though it should be harder
17:23 without TJD as his like partner in those ball screens. As long as he can find those same
17:28 workarounds, then he should still be like relatively the same guy on offense in terms
17:33 that I can do stuff. It might look worse just because of the talent. They lost a lot of talent.
17:38 So it might look worse because the talent around him that he can distribute to that he can work
17:41 with might not be as good or might not be as ready. But I would say I'm not like, whereas I'm
17:47 very focused on has Trey found any way to be a more volume heavy three point shooter while still
17:53 having actually like X I'm like, can you just still do what you've done in the past? Yeah,
17:57 I don't think we should expect, you know, a major jump in volume. You know, he attempted
18:05 three point or sorry, two point eight threes his first year at Indiana, two point five
18:11 threes last year. That's on a per game basis. Thirty eight percent his first year, 37 percent
18:19 of second year. I think that's pretty in line, you know, kind of somewhere between two and three
18:23 attempts a game. I don't necessarily think you want him shooting five, six, seven a game. You
18:28 know, there might be some some games where he ends up shooting a bunch, but. You know, he is also
18:35 kind of willing and kind of the pick and roll and stuff, we've seen him like kind of pull up to that
18:39 mid range a little bit. He's not as good as Jalen proved to be last year, and that was one of Jalen's
18:46 favorite spots. Just get to that little, you know, one or two dribble mid range pull up. I don't
18:51 think X is as good as Jalen was, but I think that's a shot he will take, which, you know,
18:56 kind of decreases the threes to just taking one or two more dribbles in. But let's talk about his
19:02 defense, I guess. I feel like we we kind of went through a lot with his offense. I think defensively
19:06 I think that may be most valuable. I think the reason we did that is because we kind of know
19:11 exactly what he is on defense. He pressures the ball like crazy. I think Trey goes more after
19:17 off the ball, trying to deny X kind of lets him get the ball and then does this thing. And I think
19:22 you were mentioned at North Carolina game he gave R2 Davis plenty of problems just.
19:26 It we and we talked about this on a podcast in the past, just his size, too, is that he's about
19:31 6'3", like just not a small guard in any sense of the word. It's pretty solid for you when X is
19:37 your smallest player on the court a lot of the time. So I think X defensively is just I don't
19:44 have much to say because, yeah, he's pretty rock solid on that end. He does his job. They ask him
19:49 to pressure the ball like crazy and to be aggressive, let Indiana use its size and
19:52 athleticism against other teams, which he does a good job of. It'll be a little bit different,
19:57 again, how he pairs it with last year. Trey, who a lot of the times could either switch or show up
20:02 high or be aggressive up top to try and kind of use that mobility against teams, which is Colelle
20:07 whose mobility is his weakness. But I think X will do a really good job in screen navigation,
20:12 getting over ball handlers to because basically they're probably going to sit back at the rim
20:17 with his hands up and use that giant 7'2" frame to kind of just deter shots at the rim. I think
20:23 X will do a very good job bothering guys at the point of attack to force them into those bad
20:28 mid-range areas very often they want them to. So I think I just don't have a lot to say on X on
20:34 defense because, yeah, I trust him. He's pretty solid. Yeah, I mean, I think it was pretty clear
20:39 last year, like a lot of those games, whether you think of like Penn State or Iowa or Miami,
20:45 a lot of those teams that were guard-oriented and that like to space things out and kind of,
20:50 you know, they didn't necessarily play through a big, I guess, is the point. You saw how Indiana,
20:57 you know, kind of struggled to keep up with kind of some speed and athleticism, like on the
21:01 perimeter. And I think that'll be huge to have X back as kind of that point man, not just for the
21:08 offense, but defense too. And, you know, I thought you made a good point about his size too. I think
21:14 he's about 6'3", but, you know, obviously he's a 23, 24-year-old. You know, he's going to have
21:19 a size advantage in terms of, you think of some guards in the Big Ten like Tyson Walker or Boo
21:25 Bui or Braden Smith. Like he's bigger than those guys, which I think has, you know, creates a
21:31 natural advantage in that sense. So, yeah, I think defensively there's not a whole lot to say other
21:39 than he's going to be super valuable in kind of setting the tone for who Indiana wants to be
21:46 defensively because we know that's always going to be important, you know, with Woodson.
21:50 Yeah. So, unless you have anything else you want to say on X, I think it's good time for
21:54 us to transition into some football talk. Sorry, Indiana fans, it must be done.
21:59 Daniel, I got one more question regarding X. Just because of what Indiana lost
22:08 with Trace and Jalen and, you know, four starters, everything,
22:12 what do we think is a realistic expectation in terms of points per game for X this year?
22:20 See, that's so tough again because, like I said, he has such a weird points per game arc.
22:25 Like, I don't like using points per game for so many of these guys because it's just such a wonky
22:29 stat. It's so much based on playing time. It can, a lot of times, it can represent certain things,
22:34 but man, like, you see X is just up and down, up and down. It's so weird that it was his first
22:39 ever season in college basketball where he scored the most. I think it has to be, it's going to be
22:47 higher than 9.9 mainly because just, Trace is not going to have the ball like last year where Trace
22:54 had the ball a lot. It should be in X's hands quite a bit. I think up to where he was in '21,
23:00 '22, like 12, 13 points a game. I could go for 13. I think 13 is reasonable. How about you?
23:06 Yeah, I was going to say maybe a touch higher, 14, maybe 15 as the ceiling. I think some of
23:14 this will depend on how good Mackenzie Mbaka is and if, like, if he can get you 12, 13, 14 a game,
23:21 like maybe that takes away some of X. But I'll say I think he goes for like 14.5 maybe. I know
23:32 that would be, you know, that'd be his second highest total, but I think he's going to have
23:36 the ball in his hands more than anyone. I think he's going to play above 30 minutes a game probably
23:44 unless Gabe Cupps proves to be really valuable and you can kind of use him and Trey to give X,
23:52 you know, some breathing, some breathers. But yeah, I think kind of 14.5 is, I think that's
24:00 kind of what I expect. You know, some of that could change, like I said, if Mackenzie is,
24:09 reaches his full potential or even Kalel Ware too. But I do think Indiana will be more balanced
24:15 than they were last year where it was like so reliant on Trace and Jalen and it was like,
24:21 all right, you know, you're getting, you know, 30 to 40 points from them combined every game
24:27 and, you know, or, you know, maybe even more than that, 50 some games. But, you know, I think
24:32 Indiana will be more balanced than they were last year in terms of scoring output. But that's kind
24:38 of how I read it going into the year. - Well, speaking of a group of athletes
24:46 that's probably scoring 14 points, Indiana football against Maryland this week. Yeah,
24:52 I have Maryland ranked as the fourth best team in the Big Ten right now. And Maryland is solid,
24:57 mainly it's because, dude, this conference sucks. There are so many bad teams in this conference.
25:03 - So tight. - I got the Big Ten power rankings out a day
25:08 later specifically because I was like, I don't know what to do with these like bottom nine teams.
25:12 Illinois is like eight solely 'cause I couldn't find other teams to drop mine. It's just such a
25:18 mess after the first two teams. So Maryland is one of only four teams in the conference that hasn't
25:23 lost yet, four and oh. Now the schedule, fairly forgiving. They beat Towson 38 to six, Charlotte
25:29 38 to 20, Virginia 42 to 14, and Michigan State 31 to nine. And do not be tricked by the Virginia
25:36 win, that Virginia team is worse than a lot of group of five teams. James Madison beat them.
25:41 James Madison's a good group of five team, but still. So yeah, Maryland's had a very easy schedule.
25:47 They had some weird, this weird thing where they're down 14 to nothing in back-to-back weeks
25:50 in Charlotte and Virginia, but won both games fairly comfortably. Their offense is what everyone
25:56 talks about 'cause Talia Tagovailoa been around forever. Obviously younger brother to a very good
26:01 big-time quarterback. Has certain limitations, like this is not like some superstar level player,
26:07 but Talia is very, very, very good. He is one of the best quarterbacks Indiana will face this year,
26:12 I would say. Now they have faced some solid ones again, like obviously like Kyle McCord,
26:17 first year, had some bumps, but he's an Ohio State quarterback. Jack Plummer was solid. Talia,
26:22 I would say, is probably a little bit better than him. DJ Irons is pretty good, as we saw last week.
26:27 So Maryland is a, see again, I don't hesitate to even say they're that good, but there's a very
26:34 good chance that Maryland's just going nine to three, if the three losses being Ohio State,
26:37 Michigan, and Penn State. Solely 'cause there's not any other teams this big. Maryland is pretty
26:41 competent at everything they do, and there are not a lot of teams this conference who do that. So
26:45 how are you feeling about Indiana's chances going into College Park this weekend?
26:50 Yeah, I mean, I don't feel good about their chances of winning. I think they might be able
26:56 to keep it close for a little, 'cause you mentioned some of those, you know, Maryland has
27:00 had some slow starts against some pretty bad teams this year. And I do still believe that this,
27:06 that Indiana's defense is above average and can keep them in some games. But I mean, I think what
27:17 I'm looking for most kind of in the first half is just coming out with some fire. And I know that's
27:22 kind of hard to quantify or to say, you know, whether you can see it or not. But it was so
27:31 clear against Akron, just how flat they came out. And, you know, it was really concerning to me
27:38 after the game how Tom Allen was talking about just, you know, yeah, we had to restart practice
27:43 on Thursday, guys weren't locked in. Like every player we've asked has kind of confirmed that too,
27:48 that it was just a really bad practice. It completely ruined the somewhat good vibes of
27:54 the season. Like even one or two just competing with Ohio State and like having very serious
27:59 limitations from that game. But, and coming back against Louisville, Indiana fans could talk
28:04 themselves into there's something with this team. And then just all in one week, it's like,
28:08 again, should have lost that game. Akron played better.
28:11 - Yeah. And it's like, Indiana has no right to overlook a team like that. You know,
28:17 they're coming off two and 10 and four and eight the last two years. Like,
28:21 so that's what I'm really concerned about that, that the coaching staff is, wasn't able to instill
28:29 in them, like, you have to show up and play this game or we're going to lose. And, you know, Tom
28:35 Allen talked during the week about like, you know, he rattled off a bunch of stats to the team about
28:40 how often Mac teams beat the big 10. I think he said it was something like it happens every year
28:46 for the, for, you know, a good portion of the last 15 years or something like that.
28:50 And just his message wasn't coming across to the team. And, you know, I think that's really
28:57 concerning four weeks into the season now entering the fifth game. So I think that's kind of what I'm
29:04 looking for a lot in the first half, just like, does Indiana show up and want to compete? Because
29:11 last, last week, you know, that was really concerning, just how flat they were and just,
29:17 they didn't take Akron seriously at all. And I guess the silver lining to that is that they were
29:23 still able to win. And now maybe you can just flush that and move on and Indiana won't overlook
29:28 anyone else because it's big 10 opponents the rest of the way. But, you know, man, that was
29:33 still really concerning. And, you know, I don't think there's any way you feel better about that
29:39 game than you did, you know, a couple of days ago when we were talking. So that's kind of what I,
29:46 what I see kind of going into the game, just from like an attitude perspective.
29:49 Yeah. I mean, even if they had played very well against Akron, I probably, I didn't think they
29:54 would beat this Maryland team or would project it. I really don't think it now. I mean,
30:01 it's just not, it's not even an amazing Maryland team. Like, yeah, there should be ways Indiana can
30:06 compete in this game. I think I've saw that the Maryland defense is just, they're fine. They
30:10 haven't done anything terrible, but they also haven't faced any offenses that are anything to
30:14 write home about. They've had some decent success running the ball too. Their offense can be like
30:20 multifaceted, but it's not really an explosive offense when it's on time. And I think this
30:24 defense is good, but I'm leaning towards, I think it's a game where just their defense has a few
30:29 good plays early on, but just the Maryland offense will be too on time and occasionally get a few
30:33 touchdowns, a few goal drives to just keep tacking on points where I think the Indiana offense might
30:37 just be like three and out, three and out, bad play, turnover on downs, interception where it's
30:42 like, yeah, like eventually your defense just gives up a few points because this offense can't
30:47 get anything going. Obviously a big talking point this week has been Walt Bell saying that Indiana
30:51 should be a run first offense. We found some stats on that. This is courtesy of Parker Fleming, who
30:58 is @StatsofWar on Twitter and has the helpful site called CFB Graphs. Indiana has the second
31:04 worst expected, second, fifth worst expected points added per run play so far this college football
31:11 season. Jack, do you want to guess who the four worst teams are on that? The only teams worse at
31:16 running the ball in Indiana so far? Well, I was looking at some of this. It's like Sam Houston
31:21 State and a bunch of, a bunch of teams that are not good. It's actually three other Power Five
31:28 teams too, which aren't horrible in South Carolina and BYU, although like South Carolina's whole
31:32 thing is Spencer Rattler. And, but then they also have Iowa State who's like offended the notion of
31:37 offense for its first four weeks. And then yeah, Sam Houston State, which is transitioning up to
31:41 FBS and having one of the worst seasons ever. So yeah, it's not great to be fair. Maryland also,
31:47 I think I saw this is, let's see if I have this right. Maryland's defense is 101st in EPA allowed
31:55 per run. So they're pretty bad at stopping the run too. So very, very movable object versus the
32:00 stop, extremely stoppable force game this week in terms of Indiana trying to run the ball on
32:04 Maryland. But yeah, I just, I would, I prefer it honestly, if they just like, hey, we're not going
32:11 to try and run the ball very much at all this game. If that's, if you want to motivate them,
32:15 maybe it's just, hey, Taven, can you go out there and outplay Taliyah? We think you're a very good
32:22 passer. You are the leader of our team. We think we can protect you long enough to give you a
32:26 chance in this game. Can you go out there with this set of receivers instead of skill players
32:31 and just hang in a like somewhat high scoring game for Maryland, which I, I don't think would
32:37 be the worst strategy in the world. Yeah. And I think kind of touching back on, on Bell's comments
32:44 about wanting to be run first, it just, Indiana is 13th out of, out of 14, big 10 teams in,
32:52 in rushing yards and yards per game. They're 114th out of 133 FBS teams in rushing yards per game. So
33:02 I, I understand that like, you need to be able to run the ball and you need to,
33:07 to run the ball to a certain degree to set up some passing things. And I also don't think that like,
33:14 Taven is in a position to run some air raid type offense, but I agree with you that it would be
33:20 good to see, you know, the passing game be more of a focal point than, than the run game, because it,
33:26 it just hasn't worked. And, you know, you look at all the PFF grades of IU's offensive line,
33:32 it's been especially bad running the ball. You know, they have a 54 run blocking grade this
33:38 year, that's 103rd out of 133. So, you know, pretty much any stat you look at shows that
33:46 Indiana is not having success running the ball. And I think the concerning thing for me last week
33:52 was Jaylen Lucas didn't have any catches after having 10 against Louisville. And while Bell's
34:01 explanation for that was pretty much, oh, you know, we didn't have Josh Henderson. So Jaylen
34:05 had to play more running back and Akron really shadowed him or it's like, I mean, if Akron is
34:10 able to shut him down, like that's very concerning. It's like Bell's perspective.
34:16 - Saying that you couldn't get Jaylen Lucas to the ball because Josh Henderson wasn't playing
34:20 this, like saying, well, my friend didn't show up. So yeah, I didn't do any chores this weekend.
34:24 Like what I, what's, I don't understand that these two things are as connected as you think
34:28 they are. Like. - Yeah. So I would really like to see them
34:31 get Jaylen more involved in the pass game. Like he showed he can do it and not even just like
34:36 screens and stuff like against Louisville, they had that one touchdown, Taven to Jaylen, that was
34:41 just a, you know, seam up the middle, like 30 yard pass. I would really like to see Indiana do that
34:48 more. You know, I think Taven is a, will be a good quarterback eventually, but I feel like last week
34:57 we kind of saw there's going to be some growing pains with him. Kind of heading on that Maryland
35:03 defense, they're 12th in the FBS in points per game allowed. A lot of that I think is due to
35:08 some of the opponents they've played, but they lead the big 10 or tied for the lead in the big
35:13 10 and in the interceptions. So it's not an easy matchup for Taven, but I think it's one where
35:21 you need to give him a chance to throw the ball and try to win that way. Because I think at this
35:29 point, it's pretty obvious that Indiana is not going to be able to win with a run heavy approach.
35:35 Even if Walt Bell says that he wants them to be run first, I just don't see how that they,
35:41 how they can have success doing that. I think Taven has shown enough good things that you at least
35:47 throw the ball more than you run it. That's kind of what I feel kind of going into this game in
35:53 terms of the offense. Yeah. So that Maryland defense just, again, they can be somewhat
35:59 opportunistic. I think basically, I think a lot of those turnover numbers are juiced up by
36:03 Anthony Calandria for Virginia through three interceptions in a row, very late in their game.
36:08 So a lot of those went up from that, but yeah, the Maryland defense, they just need to
36:12 not get shredded by any team and like their offense against stays on time, just does what
36:16 it does. Usually it ends up putting up points. We've had some weird games again, like went up,
36:20 I think 21 three against Michigan state last week and just didn't do anything like the rest
36:24 of the game. So, but they also have some interesting skill players in Roman Hemby
36:29 and Colby McDonald, two running backs, both over 200 yards a year can split between them.
36:33 Jason Jones has been there as a receiver for a while. Now, the one thing that Indiana's defense
36:38 has struggled with, like as most core, most defense do it, quarterbacks, breaking, contain,
36:43 scrambling. It's also a lot of what DJ Irons did and gave him a lot of problems.
36:47 Talia is mobile, but he's definitely not much of a scrambler, honestly, mainly because of his size.
36:51 He doesn't want to take those hits. He's only 5'11", 205 pounds. Just, he does not have the
36:56 same frame as a plumber or DJ Irons did to kind of just absorb the tackles all game. Like that
37:03 was just DJ Irons is kind of maniac. It was kind of fun to watch. Just like, does not care about,
37:07 yeah, did not care about like taking hits. Like DJ Irons is five inches taller than Talia. So
37:12 Talia will scramble to keep, or dice around in the pocket, not dice around, move around in the
37:17 pocket to kind of try and dice the defense up then with some interesting passes. He can throw off
37:22 platform, all that stuff. But Talia is very much not a scrambler or that much of a running threat
37:28 from the quarterback position. So that should be easier for them. I just, in order for Indiana to
37:34 have a chance in this game against a Maryland team that's at least like a competent FBS opponent,
37:39 competent power five opponent, their offensive needs, they'll like put together three to four
37:44 touchdown drives. And I just don't see that happening. Like if in terms of score prediction,
37:48 I'm feeling like a slow trudge to 31-14 for Maryland where it's not the worst flaw in the
37:55 world. It could have been a lot worse, but just kind of like Maryland gets up 14-0 early. It's
38:03 probably like 17-7 and going to half and then just kind of slowly wear the game down.
38:08 Yeah. I'll give my prediction in a second, but I wanted to go back to kind of your point about
38:12 Talia where, you know, he's not going to, you know, they don't want him to rush for a ton of
38:19 yards. They're not designing runs and stuff for him, but kind of his ability to move in the pocket,
38:25 I still think Indiana has to be a lot better at kind of, you know, keeping that outside contained
38:31 so that he can't get out there and kind of extend plays where, you know, last week Irons would get
38:38 out there and then keep running. I think it's going to be more so that Talia maybe can get out
38:42 there and just continue to look for passing situations. And so I still think it's important
38:49 kind of for a lot of those edge guys, you know, Andre Carter, Linnell Carr, Miles Jackson,
38:56 Anthony Jones, kind of those spots, like kind of to be able to keep that contained on the outside
39:01 and not get beat, which they did pretty often. You know, it's not just on them. It's a whole
39:07 defense thing too. But I wrote down a very similar score to you. I said 28-13 Maryland.
39:19 I think it's a game where the score might be close for a while, but it may not really feel
39:26 like Indiana has the ability to win. I think the defense will kind of keep it close and,
39:34 you know, maybe they can generate some takeaways, which they've done pretty well this year, you know,
39:41 three interceptions against Akron. Phillip Dunham's got three picks already this year.
39:47 So, yeah, I wrote down 28-13. I just don't feel good about the offense being able to
39:52 create multiple touchdown drives. You know, I have that 13 being, you know,
39:58 a touchdown and two field goals. So, yeah, I think kind of like I said, I think it's a game where
40:06 Indiana is theoretically in striking distance to win, but, you know, you don't have a ton
40:13 of confidence in the offense actually being able to go and do it. I think the spread is about
40:19 14 points right now. It's been kind of moving around a little bit.
40:22 So, yeah, I kind of went 28-13 on that. Yeah, it just kind of feels like a game where
40:30 it could have been worse, but they really did not have a chance. Like, and hey, maybe they
40:36 pretty much were on. Maybe they look like the team they did in the second half against Louisville, but
40:41 if they look like if they look anything like the team they were on Saturday,
40:44 they're just not beating Maryland. Yeah, yeah. And kind of like how we started the whole
40:50 conversation, a lot of kind of I think how I'm going to feel after this game is like,
40:58 did Indiana put up a fight? Did they show that they can come out and compete and play with some
41:06 fire and look, you know, like a team that can win? Because last week, just kind of the whole
41:15 attitude around the game and everything was really concerning. And it's only four weeks into the
41:21 season. There's a long way to go. And you can't play with that mentality going forward.
41:26 No, you cannot. Well, I think that's going to wrap it up for us here today.
41:32 Thank you all so much for listening to the roundtable podcast. Don't forget to check out
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