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00:00 writers and actors fight not just for a fair piece of the pie but for what they feel is their
00:05 Survival in Hollywood going forward not only is the production pipeline been ground to a halt
00:12 But the award season is being deeply affected. Let's discuss
00:17 So even though these the two strikes there are two strikes the writers and the actors and both have to be resolved independently
00:25 Well, we're not quite sure what the timetable is going to be. There's been a little movement with the writers
00:30 This could take I hear that some people in Hollywood feel it could take through the rest of the year
00:35 And that puts a number of awards contenders in limbo as stars can't promote the films
00:41 Or you know like that would come out down later down the line closer to the end of the year
00:47 But starting now, there's the very important fall film festival circuit
00:51 Venice
00:54 Toronto New York
00:55 Which is part of the trail to award season and it's very important to be there
01:00 But because of the strikes it would seem you know that the actors won't be able to be there. So some movies are
01:07 You know deciding to wait out till next year
01:10 challengers already already pulled out for 2024 and Warner Brothers might move dune to and/or the color purple
01:17 Well any other movies blink high-tailing it to 2024 or will they stay and risk it trying to take advantage?
01:24 And this is where things get really interesting of what might be a wide open award season because of lack of competition
01:31 Oh, let's discuss
01:33 We're gonna go. This is a very early Oscar breakdown
01:37 Things can change dramatically as we get closer to the actual awards in 2024
01:42 But we're gonna focus on the current frontrunners the solid contenders some dark horse candidates
01:49 And then some movies that surprisingly don't seem to have a prayer that are already out of the race
01:55 Alright, so let's talk frontrunners and of course
01:57 Barbenheimer just as Barbenheimer is dominating the box office. It seems that friendly competition could continue to award season
02:06 Well, um many Oppenheimer fans, by the way, one of the the solace they've taken is that well Barbie might have sold tickets
02:14 What mold more tickets Christopher Nolan's film is the superior one, right?
02:19 with Oppenheimer fans
02:21 Convinced that it will trounce Barbie when it comes to noms and certainly wins, but we shall see
02:27 I think it's gonna be a closer race than you would think
02:31 Both our best picture and screenplay contenders with Margo and then with acting Margot Robbie Ryan Gosling
02:37 Killian Murphy and Robert Downey jr. Are all considered frontrunners
02:41 But interestingly while no one is considered to a frontrunner to be nominated for director
02:46 Greta Gerwig is not how can that be?
02:49 Well, there are a lot of female directors who are getting attention this year and Hollywood might feel that Greta Gerwig's reward is
02:57 Being the first woman to solely direct a billion-dollar picture and as of late the most successful
03:02 It's only the most successful live-action film and we'll see if it becomes the most successful film live-action or animated directed by a woman
03:09 but you know, that's quite the feather in the cap already and
03:12 The Academy might choose because their films aren't going to do as well
03:16 To nominate Emerald Fennell and or Celine song instead for their smaller films
03:21 But I think the Greta Gerwig has such an incredible accomplishment here. How could she not be nominated?
03:27 I mean it would seem to me almost like being punished for her success
03:31 So it's interesting, you know, it's wildly, you know, it's what a real roller coaster with women being nominated in the director's category
03:39 It's usually always white men, but every you know every other year so we get a nice little surprise
03:45 But this year there are a lot of women competing in this category
03:48 So not all of them are gonna be able to make it in it would be nice if they did
03:52 three women and two men maybe right right, right, but we'll see and
03:56 Naturally Barbie is the movie to beat when it comes to production design
04:00 Costume design make it something by the way, some of you might be like well, wouldn't that be unfair?
04:05 Shouldn't we nominate the best person for the job when it comes to directing? How do you know?
04:10 It's not three women in the category
04:12 That's the whole problem with that best person for the job argument because it always seems to be one type of best person
04:18 All right
04:18 So anyway back to Barbie Barbie is certainly of the movie to beat when it comes to production design
04:23 Costume design makeup and hair styling and maybe even best song
04:27 Yes, people are getting excited that it might be I'm just Ken versus peaches in the best song category
04:34 Interestingly to two very similar ballads about unrequited love
04:38 But while only one can win the Oscar and I would love it to be I'm just Ken
04:43 But the real winners will be the viewers in the ceremony itself because both Ryan Gosling and Jack Ryan Gosling and Jack Black
04:51 Would get to perform live at the Oscars and that would be incredible. That would be really great. It would certainly help with ratings
04:57 Beyond a Barben Heimer
04:59 There are a lot of other movies that hardly anyone if anyone has seen yet
05:03 Because award season typically starts in the fall after Labor Day. It's rare for summer movies to get awards traction much less win
05:12 So that's why it's so remarkable when they do Barben Heimer is very special everything everywhere all at once came out earlier
05:18 But it is still unusual
05:20 But this is an unusual year and again a very wide open year because it seems like the lack of competition
05:25 And again, some of these movies still might move
05:28 Martin Scorsese, of course is in the mix with killers of the flower moon
05:32 It has an all-star cast and it tells a horrible true story forgotten by history yet still incredibly timely today
05:40 But that leads me to question as to whether or not killers of the flower moon might be too political
05:44 It's gonna be very political. That's gonna be a lightning-rod discussion
05:48 Also, maybe it's too much of the same old same old maybe the Oscars will feel they have already covered that territory as well as it
05:56 You know Martin Scorsese might do and Barben Heimer and maybe even some other movies might seem more fresh right something to reward something different
06:04 We'll see but when it comes to killers of the flower moon the reviews out of can were quite good
06:09 Which is a rarity these days so that speaks well for that movies Oscar chances
06:13 Some other movies that have really excited the awards circuit so far are from two from Netflix
06:19 Netflix is really trying to get a Best Picture Oscar Apple TV beat them to it
06:23 Netflix has come close, but Apple TV was the first streamer to get it
06:27 But that doesn't mean Netflix has given up given up the dream
06:30 Bradley Cooper's mice maestro
06:33 whose
06:35 Maestro whose trailer just recently came out is predicted to be a huge contender like wow
06:41 This movie is about the famous composer Leonard Bernstein
06:45 Focusing on his marriage to a woman
06:47 But also his double life as a gay man made even more complicated by the fact that he was a public figure in the 1940s and
06:54 50s now this film was produced by Scorsese as well and Steven Spielberg and
06:59 Bradley Cooper's longtime collaborator Todd Phillips Bradley Cooper was involved behind the camera on Joker
07:05 So that is quite a dream team to promote the film on the awards campaign and none of those are
07:10 None of that group is actors. So maybe they wouldn't be hindered from doing so so I think that
07:16 Maestro could really compete with Oppenheimer because they're very similar films
07:21 They're both really strong prestige dramas
07:23 Which are very visually striking and their biographies about legendary men persecuted for not fitting the norm
07:29 So that's Oppenheimer's I think true competition opposite
07:34 Barbie because you know, I think they're gonna you know, they let the awards are very they like to have balance
07:39 They like to celebrate a number of different films. And so
07:42 You know, I think Oppenheimer and Maestro. It's hard to celebrate both those movies because it seems repetitive
07:49 So you might see one breakout see one breakout opposite the other
07:52 Netflix has another movie made December with Todd Haynes reuniting with Julianne Moore while adding Natalie Portman to the mix
08:00 Here more plays a woman who had an affair and married a man much younger than her
08:05 This is based on you know
08:06 The famous us the infamous scandal and then this movie is about how years later
08:11 Portman plays an actress who was going to portray more his character in a movie
08:15 So she goes to visit that family today and research more his role and things get weird
08:21 You know, maybe challengers was right to move because speaking of dualities
08:25 This seems like there might be a duality there and then there's a 24's past lives
08:30 Which follows on a recent line of Korean films Korean stories
08:34 I think this is an American production, but it tells a partial Korean story
08:38 That have gotten significant Oscar traction and in some case wins
08:42 Past lives has very strong traction. In fact, it is expected to be nominated in almost every single major category
08:50 So this is definitely a film to pay attention to when it comes to award season
08:54 Now before we get to some of the more some of the less hopeful films, let's talk about animation
09:00 And there is a lot of chatter that across the spider-verse might be able to break into the actual best picture category and not talking
09:06 About best animated feature best picture as an animated movie, which is a very small club. Indeed. That would be incredible
09:13 Spider-verse is certainly the front-runner to win best animated feature and per usual Disney's two divisions are expected to get nominated as well with
09:22 elemental and wish but will they
09:24 Strong competition here Super Mario Brothers Nimona from Netflix and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles all have a pretty strong claim
09:31 Super Mario Brothers is a colossal hit which you would think at least deserves a nomination
09:36 That's particularly how animation has worked in the past as a category unlike other categories
09:40 Nimona offers up not only important LGBT LGBT representation
09:45 But what a story Disney dumped the film because of that representation your Netflix saved it and it turned out really well
09:51 And Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is from director Jeff Rowe whose Mitchells versus the machines has already been nominated
09:58 So Academy voters have a relationship with him and might want to continue to you know, you know
10:03 Make sure his career goes well. So one of those two Disney movies might not make it interestingly enough
10:07 The holdovers speaking of Oppenheimer the holdovers dropped a really charming trailer in front of that movie
10:14 But is the reason that nobody's really talked about this film because Alexander Payne is still haunted by that horrible scandal from a few years ago
10:21 Which never really got resolved
10:23 Salt burn is suddenly starting to get a lot of traction
10:26 Emerald fennel's follow-up to promising young woman which got a lot of nominations, but not any wins is so horrible
10:32 So I think I don't fennel I think actually did she win right but that movie I think deserved more attention than it got
10:38 But there are a lot of emerald fennel fans now myself included and by the way a promising young woman
10:44 Salt burn and Barbie are all produced by Margot Robbie
10:47 In fact fennel herself has a cameo in Barbie, but what's with Margot Robbie creating friendly competition for herself this year
10:54 Could salt burn speaking of dualities could salt burn steal some of Barbie's Oscar thunder
10:59 Especially in the director and screenplay categories with Barbie getting all the money
11:03 So let's go and reward salt burn when it comes to awards that could definitely happen
11:09 Then before he dawned the cowl Ben Affleck had turned himself
11:13 Well, he started out as an Oscar winner, but then he had been able to rehabilitate his career rehabilitate his career to become a huge
11:20 Oscar darling. I mean that's the thing that got him into the comic book movies, you know
11:23 He was riding high and now he's trying to return after a rough time there with air
11:28 Now this film is considered a bit of a wild card in categories overall
11:33 But Viola Davis is considered a frontrunner for best supporting actress not only because she did an incredible job in a great an important role
11:40 But also sadly because the female categories are typically hard to fill year-to-year and so therefore a little less competitive
11:46 Every year this happens so annoying
11:49 And speaking of actresses America Ferreira is expected to get nominated for dumb money not for Barbie
11:55 Although her role her monologue and Barbie ended up being such a big deal
11:58 It could end up being the other way around after all but what could happen is that she gets nominated for dumb money
12:04 But rides the wave of her Barbie monologue. Anyway, a perfect one-two punch that gets her the Oscar
12:10 It's like how true detective aired during voting season. So even though Matthew McConaughey technically won for Dallas Buyers Club
12:16 He also kind of won for true detective so I could see that happening for America Ferreira great timing on the part of her team
12:22 Unless dumb money somehow gets delayed. I don't think dumb money. Well, I think dumb money is gonna open and come on
12:28 Can we get Glenn Howerton nominated for Blackberry dude hasn't gotten any work off of the film
12:34 Let's at least give him a nomination
12:35 Come on, and it could happen because a lot of people in the industry have seen the film
12:40 But unfortunately to get nominated you need a big aggressive awards campaign behind you and elevation pictures
12:46 Don't has doesn't have the money or pull to run such a campaign
12:49 So Glenn Howerton would have to I don't know where his agency would have to somehow try to do this themselves
12:54 But you don't want to pull an Andrew Reisborough Glenn. You got to be careful. But boy, he was good in Blackberry
13:00 He deserves to be nominated. Although unfortunately the male categories are extremely competitive
13:04 And so he might not make it in
13:07 Finally despite the favorite being an awards juggernaut Emma Stone and your ghost Lanthomas his new movie is
13:14 Struggling to get awards traction, but at least it's still part of the conversation. Whereas some other movies can't even say that
13:20 Napoleon doesn't seem to have any buzz despite not only Ridley Scott directing in the movie looking and looking incredible and awards loving biographies
13:29 historical biographies
13:31 But you know and also
13:33 Recent Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix in the lead role you think Napoleon would be a big part of the awards conversation
13:38 But it is not and nobody's talking about Michael Mann's Ferrari starring Adam driver
13:43 Did house of Gucci do even more damage than we thought, you know, it certainly hurt Lady Gaga and Jared Leto
13:49 But it might have hurt Adam driver, too
13:51 Which is a shame. It's I don't think it's any of the actors fault
13:55 It was really that movie really had a problem because of the script totally fell apart after the first half
14:00 But neon is distributing Ferrari and neon they have a pretty strong
14:05 Awards Rolodex they know what they're doing
14:08 They've managed to get some noms, but also some wins for their films in the past including freakin parasite
14:14 So neon has the connections, but they better get started on Ferrari. No buzz
14:18 The only thing I can think that maybe they might move it if they haven't started to try and get anyone talking about it
14:23 Just yet, or maybe they're biding their time
14:25 Maybe they don't want to peak too early and we are still a couple of months out
14:28 And also it's worth noting that the award circuit has totally passed over forgotten Wes Anderson's asteroid City and Ari
14:36 Astor's bow is afraid not to say they can't maybe pick up some production design and hair and makeup and costume awards, right?
14:42 But are these the mother for those respective directors?
14:45 Although Aaron Ofsky rallied again with the whale after that which got three Oscar nominations and won two of them including best actor for Brendan
14:53 Frazier because hey Hollywood always will love a comeback story
14:56 So those two directors Wes Anderson and Ari Aster are definitely down, but they're not out
15:02 So, what do you think of the Oscar race so far? Are there any movies that you're rooting for in particular?
15:07 Are there any movies you're rooting against and do you think I've left any contenders or possible contenders out of the conversation?
15:13 And do you think any movies will move and would you move your movie or would you stay in it?
15:18 Considering how wide open the field seems and do you think it will be again all about Barben Heimer?
15:23 Share your thoughts down below subscribe today. And of course as always you can check out some more videos right now
15:29 *Outro Music*