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00:00 First of all, what I'm about to say is not a comment on what we're going to do at the
00:02 next meeting.
00:03 That is obviously very much to be decided.
00:05 So this is a more general comment.
00:07 I think we've moved from a period where, and I think we've discussed this before, I would
00:14 disagree with you on this catch-up point because of the nature of the shocks that we've had,
00:18 and particularly the shocks we had last year coming from the Ukrainian war.
00:23 So there was a period where it seemed to me it was clear that rates needed to rise going
00:29 forwards and the question for us was how much and over what time frame.
00:34 But we're not, I think, in that place anymore.
00:36 That's why we shifted our language to being much more evidence and data driven to start
00:42 with.
00:43 That was important.
00:44 We also introduced in August, very deliberately, the point that we think policy is now restrictive
00:49 in its impact.
00:51 And I say that because I think the judgment's now much finer because I think, you know,
00:57 I understand your point as it were.
01:01 I think we are much nearer now to the top of the cycle and I'm not therefore saying
01:05 we are at the top of the cycle because we've got a meeting to come, but I think we are
01:08 much nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence.
01:14 Now just to finish, going back to Swati's point, it's interesting that, by the way,
01:20 the 6% today is 5.7, the market's come off a bit so it's 5.75 today.
01:25 The difference between holding it flat for three years, which is our sort of forecast
01:30 period, and the market curve, the average interest rate difference is about a quarter
01:37 of a percent.
01:38 So it's not a very large number.
01:39 And that's because one of them goes up and comes down and the other one stays flat.
01:43 But the average, so the up/down is about a quarter percent higher on average than the
01:48 flat.
01:49 And I think one of the questions that, you know, we obviously do consider and we'll have
01:53 to go on considering that carefully is, is there anything more beyond that quarter percent
01:59 average difference in putting them up and bringing them down again or is, as Swati
02:04 said, is the holding constant part, once we feel we're at the right level, because I just,
02:08 you know, again make this point, I am not making a comment on the next meeting, the
02:12 right thing to do.
02:13 And that will be an important judgment we have to make.
02:15 [BLANK_AUDIO]