Ready to dominate your fantasy football league in epic fashion? Fantasy guru Matthew Berry breaks down how to maximize your roster for peak point production week in, week out.
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00:00 There is absolutely a strategy to draft your fantasy football team,
00:03 specifically with each of the positions.
00:05 If you listen to me and you pay attention throughout the year,
00:08 you'll have a shot at the title by the end.
00:10 Roughly 40 million people play fantasy football,
00:13 and Matthew Barry is the absolute expert.
00:15 So my name is Matthew Barry, and my official title is
00:19 Senior Fantasy and Sports Betting Analyst for NBC Sports and Peacock,
00:24 I'm often referred to the godfather of fantasy football.
00:27 Matthew Barry is going to take us position by position,
00:30 highlighting what stats make a successful fantasy option.
00:33 When it comes to quarterbacks in general,
00:37 what you want is dual threat quarterbacks.
00:38 Quarterbacks that not only get you fantasy points with their arms,
00:41 but with their legs.
00:42 Last season, out of the top six quarterbacks in fantasy points per game,
00:45 four of them had 700 or more rushing yards.
00:48 And in fact, eight of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in points per game
00:51 last year had at least 350 rushing yards.
00:54 You really want a dual threat quarterback,
00:56 because if they don't get you fantasy points with their legs,
00:58 you need them to have 40 passing touchdown upside,
01:01 and there just aren't a lot of quarterbacks like that in the NFL right now.
01:04 I also think it's important to understand tiers.
01:06 Josh Allen, Patrick Holmes, and Jalen Burch are kind of the elite top three.
01:10 But there's a clear top eight quarterbacks.
01:13 What you really want is quarterbacks that run and throw,
01:15 that have talent around them.
01:16 You can be the best quarterback in the world,
01:18 but if you've got the worst offensive line,
01:19 it's hard to throw from your back.
01:20 Josh Allen is a great example.
01:21 Josh Allen had a bad completion percentage.
01:24 They said he was more of a runner than a thrower.
01:26 You're three? Josh Allen gets Stephon Diggs,
01:28 one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
01:29 What happens? He becomes the number one quarterback in fantasy.
01:32 Everyone talks about his accuracy, his elite passing.
01:35 Did Josh Allen suddenly become a better quarterback?
01:37 Yes, he did. Having Stephon Diggs to throw to makes you a better quarterback.
01:41 For the running back position, volume is king.
01:46 The top five running backs in fantasy points per game last season
01:48 all had at least 310 touches.
01:50 16 of the top 20 had at least 250 touches.
01:53 All finished as top 20 running backs in fantasy points per game.
01:56 The next thing is what kind of touches are they getting?
01:58 Specifically, we want to look for high value touches.
02:01 Receptions and red zone touches.
02:03 Are they getting the ball when the team gets inside their opponent's 20-yard line?
02:07 That's the red zone.
02:08 Are they getting it in goal-to-go situations,
02:10 which is inside an opponent's 10-yard line?
02:12 So ideally, you want running backs that touch the ball a lot,
02:15 and that they touch the ball a lot when they get close to the goal line,
02:17 and they touch the ball a lot from their quarterback,
02:20 not just on first and second down,
02:21 but also on third down as part of the pass and attack.
02:24 In terms of wide receiver, that's somebody that is earning a high percentage
02:29 of target, target share, and targets per routes run.
02:32 Wide receivers need to have the ability to earn targets by getting open.
02:36 The actual best wide receivers in the NFL
02:38 tend to be the ones who score the most fantasy points.
02:40 Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Cooper Cupp, Tyree Kill, Stephon Diggs.
02:43 Those guys are the best wide receivers in the NFL,
02:45 and they also are the ones who score the most fantasy points.
02:48 If you want some efficiency metrics,
02:49 you're going to get a little bit dirty. Target share, targets per route run,
02:53 yards per route run are all good efficiency metrics for wide receivers.
02:57 Wide receivers tend to be safer early round picks
03:00 due to consistency and lower injury risk.
03:02 When you think about it, running backs are being tackled hard.
03:05 They're going in between the pile.
03:06 Wide receivers, they bounce out of bounds.
03:08 They're being hit by a defensive back, not a defensive lineman.
03:11 Wide receivers tend to have a lower injury risk.
03:13 I also like rookies, by the way.
03:14 Look at the second half rookie wide receivers.
03:17 There's a number of talented wide receivers who might start slow as rookies,
03:20 but over the second half of the year, will have a huge impact.
03:22 If you think about last year with guys like Garrett Wilson,
03:25 Chris O'Leary, Jahan Dotson at times,
03:27 that's another place to look for as you get further into the season.
03:30 And then at the tight end position, what you want is you want to see
03:35 how many snaps are they out on a passing play.
03:38 Are they used primarily as a blocker or are they used as a passer?
03:41 Sometimes they're really just glorified wide receivers.
03:43 What's their opportunity? We can look at talent.
03:45 Do they have a good quarterback?
03:46 Is the tight end used more as a blocker in this offense
03:49 or is the tight end used as a passing weapon in the offense?
03:52 Generally speaking, I either want to be one of the first people in my league
03:55 to get a tight end or one of the last,
03:57 because having an elite tight end can be a huge advantage.
04:00 Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, TJ Hopkinson, for me, are those top three.
04:03 I think they stand out above the rest.
04:05 We've spent a lot of time looking at trying to predict kicker scoring
04:10 and kicker scoring year over year over year.
04:12 And generally speaking, the best kicker in fantasy football
04:16 and like the 12th kicker in fantasy football,
04:18 the difference is like one and a half points a game.
04:20 There's just not much difference.
04:21 There's a lot of variance.
04:22 You like kickers on good offenses.
04:24 You like kickers that play indoors in warm weather cities.
04:28 So they're not often kicking in bad weather.
04:30 You can look at defenses that give up the most field goals
04:33 that have good red zone defense, but bad defense in the middle of the field.
04:36 You know, kind of their bend, don't break defenses.
04:38 Their teams will come down and they often will kick.
04:40 But technically speaking, it doesn't make sense to draft a kicker
04:43 before the last round.
04:44 With defenses, you can predict something.
04:48 You can predict, hey, this is a team that likes to blitz a lot.
04:50 So probably they'll generate, you know, some sacks, maybe a few more turnovers.
04:53 But honestly, it's generally fairly fluky.
04:56 If you look at defensive scoring year after year,
04:58 it rarely carries over from season to season.
05:01 So streaming is always a much better option than saying,
05:05 I'm going to go out and target this.
05:06 There are defenses that we think are going to be pretty good.
05:08 The Eagles and the Niners.
05:09 But you're often better off of just picking the defense
05:11 that's playing an inept offense week after week.
05:13 Now that you have your team built, let's get to the most important part.
05:17 A fantasy team name is very important, right?
05:19 This is not an institution to take lightly.
05:20 The team name should reflect your personality and ideally insult
05:24 somebody else in your league.
05:25 Fantasy football, there is no one right way to play.
05:28 There is no one right way to draft.
05:30 Ultimately, you have to figure out what works for you and do what you want to do.
05:34 (upbeat music)