End Of Year Market Predictions With Ryan Detrick, CMT - Chief Market Strategist - Carson Group
#1 Morning Stock Show To Get You Ready For The Stock Market Open, PreMarket Gainers, Earnings This Week, Economic Data & More!
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Benzinga PreMarket Prep 8:00AM ET- 9:00AM ET BenzingaTV on YouTube.
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00:00 Of course, we've had some really good performance in the first half of the stock market.
00:05 And I'm wondering, is that the peak for the year or is there potential factors that could
00:10 drive us even greater in the second half here, Ryan?
00:14 Yeah, I mean, we think we don't think the peak is in.
00:16 I want to be clear there.
00:17 We do think, you know, eventually by October, November, we'll probably break out the new
00:21 highs, which you tend to see.
00:23 And I think when you see F-40, that's OK, fundamentals.
00:26 You know, if you look at this earnings, right, we know we're in a great discussion.
00:29 I mean, believe me, this retailer thing, these retailers is getting hammered yet again.
00:33 Then you look at the online sales, like a Walmart had to say, like Lowe's had to say,
00:36 there are some retailers that had some positive things to say.
00:39 So it's very, it's very, very unique.
00:42 But I mean, the truth again is there's these different factors.
00:45 You know, I just went blank.
00:46 What'd you ask me?
00:47 I'm sorry, I started talking.
00:48 What'd you ask?
00:49 Oh, I do that all the time.
00:50 Performance second half.
00:51 Yeah, I mean, but yes, we think that we will eventually break out the new highs.
00:58 We think again, earnings was going with this after I was going with the earnings.
01:01 If you look at earnings expectations, right, they're up 2% from the start of earnings.
01:06 Earnings seems like over.
01:07 So S&P 500 earnings expectations have actually gone higher.
01:10 Maybe what companies are to say about the past wasn't that great, but what they've had
01:12 to say about the future has been solid.
01:14 And I understand, well, they're not always that great looking 12 months out.
01:17 I'm not going to totally disagree there.
01:19 But again, we're seeing higher trending 12 month earnings expectations going higher than
01:23 most people wildly expected this time, three, four months ago.
01:26 So if earnings continue to come in better than expected, those credit markets remain
01:29 nice and calm, no major monster under the bed.
01:32 Those are still things to say, you know, this has been a dip, um, that that's shaking out
01:36 some of the weak hands.
01:37 And, and once we get through, you know, say September or so, we wouldn't be shocked at
01:40 all if the fourth quarter was pretty solid.
01:43 What would you avoid?
01:44 What would you absolutely run from right now?
01:47 Well, let me say Jim Harbaugh, Michigan football.
01:51 Oh,
01:52 no, no, no, no.
01:59 We haven't liked for a while, the more defensive areas, right?
02:02 You utilities, um, staples.
02:03 I mean, some of those we, we haven't liked them for a while and they're still, they're
02:07 still, they're still, they're so relatively weak in our opinion.
02:09 So I'm not saying we're running from them.
02:12 We have them in our models that we run, but we've been underweight.
02:14 Those, those more defensive areas.
02:16 We still think of more of a cyclical small cap is, is a tilt that we have.
02:19 and that's kind of the place that we are.