As the race for the state elections heats up, former Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin gives his take on where the chips may fall for the current political parties
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00:00 This is entirely going to be decided by three things.
00:05 One, Malay votes, non-Malay turn out,
00:10 and transferability of votes.
00:14 So I didn't say non-Malay turn out
00:19 because non-Malay, especially Chinese votes,
00:24 the vote is not in question.
00:25 If they turn out, they will vote for PH, 95%.
00:29 Malay votes, that's a different issue.
00:32 That's split three ways.
00:34 So the question is,
00:39 then comes the transferability of that Malay vote.
00:44 Will BN Malay votes go to PN or will they go to PH?
00:48 PH and BN hope for 100% perfect transferability.
00:51 If you supported BN UMNO last time, you'll throw it to PH.
00:55 I don't think that's gonna happen.
00:58 At 50% transferability,
01:00 then it's gonna be 3-3, status quo.
01:03 Which my call is still 3-3, status quo.
01:08 But PN will make inroads into Selangor, maybe Negeri Sembilan.
01:11 But at slightly higher transferability,
01:17 then PH, I wouldn't say is in trouble,
01:22 but that's when things start to get a bit dicey for them.
01:25 The PN states, or the past states,
01:28 their dominance will continue.
01:30 And you're talking about marginal difference,
01:34 but I don't think PH, BN will come anywhere close
01:38 to winning in Kedah, Trengganu or Kelantan.
01:43 But I think in the PH states,
01:46 that's where the transferability may not be perfect
01:49 between BN and PH and vice versa.
01:52 But especially between, okay, if you're UMNO voter,
01:56 if you're a PH voter,
01:57 and now there's not a PH candidate contesting,
02:01 but there's a UMNO candidate contesting,
02:04 because they do this deal or whatever.
02:06 Dusun Tueh lah, for instance, right?
02:08 There used to be this Edry guy from DAP,
02:11 now Johan is contesting there.
02:12 You're a PH voter.
02:14 You'll definitely throw it,
02:15 you're more likely to throw it to UMNO than to PN,
02:19 especially if you're non-Malay.
02:21 Because that vote is a worldview vote.
02:24 It's a lifestyle vote.
02:27 It's a existential vote, as they put it now,
02:30 green wave, all that (beep)
02:32 But if you were a Malay voter who voted for UMNO last time,
02:37 and then they put a PH voter there, a PH candidate there,
02:40 doesn't matter from what race, you know?
02:43 So you used to be UMNO voter, now no more UMNO candidate,
02:47 but PH has put a candidate there,
02:51 PN has put a candidate there, you might throw it to PN.
02:54 Negeri a bit better than Selangor for PH, BN,
02:58 because UMNO has some value out there.
03:03 So they have, they're stronger than Selangor, UMNO.
03:07 They have more recognizable candidates,
03:10 and not so problematic in that sense.
03:15 So if you look at Negeri Sembilan's transferability,
03:18 as I come back to earlier,
03:20 because UMNO and BN, thanks to that, is stronger,
03:23 then they can ensure more transferability
03:25 for each other, BN, PH.
03:28 Where as Selangor, there's no UMNO.
03:29 UMNO is like useless in Selangor.
03:32 You know, three elections in a row, you've lost.
03:34 So you have no value add here.
03:35 So really, PH is carrying the weight,
03:40 doing the heavy lifting in Selangor.
03:42 So Selangor, you're firing one engine.
03:44 Negeri Sembilan, you're firing two engines.
03:46 That's why I doubt Negeri Sembilan will fall.
03:49 [BLANK_AUDIO]