ECOWAS ‘looking to draw a line’ after series of coups in West Africa
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00:00 the situation in Niger. A coup carried out by the presidential guard
00:03 last Wednesday has led to West African leaders threatening military
00:07 action if the group does not hand back power within a week. In a TV
00:11 address overnight, a military colonel of the presidential guard
00:14 accused France of plotting with the government to carry out
00:17 airstrikes in order to free the detained president. No evidence
00:20 provided. France so far has said it has one task, that is restoration
00:25 of democratic government. Let's bring in our international affairs
00:30 commentator, Doug Herbert. We have had the West African leaders
00:34 meeting, the ECOWAS group, 15 countries, they are saying seven
00:37 days and there will be military action if you don't restore the
00:40 government. Give us a sense of why they have decided that.
00:42 >> What is the question? Does this coup have staying power? Can
00:46 this 15-country regional economic block, ECOWAS, can they do
00:50 anything? What is their ultimatum worth? Do they have the generals
00:54 and coup leaders quivering in their boots, so to speak? The easy
00:58 answer as of this hour is it doesn't look like it. It doesn't look
01:02 like the Puchis are about to go anywhere. Does that mean tomorrow
01:06 I might not be standing here, Gavin, we might have a whole
01:08 different story, we'll say, oh, coup over, it's been reversed. It's
01:10 possible. Not looking likely. Look, ECOWAS, why are they doing
01:14 this? They've served this ultimatum because they are sick and tired
01:18 of looking weak and ineffective. They have watched across Africa
01:21 for the past 18 months, year and a half, coup after coup after coup
01:25 across the West African region. >> It's called the coup belt.
01:27 >> It's the coup belt. We have seen two in Mali in 2020, 2021. We've
01:32 seen one in Burkina Faso. We've seen another in Guinea. And
01:36 enough is enough. Basically, they want to draw a line. Draw a line,
01:39 first of all, because they want to sort of restore credibility and
01:43 embattle democracy. They want to restore some sort of democratic
01:46 institution across this region. At least Niger has a lynchpin here.
01:50 But also their own credibility. If they don't do anything, they're
01:52 seen as a complete puny weakling that their word is worth nothing.
01:57 So their own credibility is at stake as well as the democratic
02:01 credibility as they see it of the entire region. That said, ECOWAS
02:05 is hated by a lot of people in the region. It is seen as, if you
02:09 will, a pawn of a lot of Western powers. It is seen as doing the
02:13 bidding of a lot of these old colonial powers, including France.
02:17 It's not really seen as an independent voice. When it tried to
02:20 impose very tough sanctions on Mali after its back-to-back coups,
02:24 there were massive protests against ECOWAS. People sort of
02:27 chanting, "Down with ECOWAS, down with France," lumping them all
02:30 together. So will this succeed? My sense is that military
02:35 intervention is a threat. That's a long shot from where we stand
02:37 today. Could it happen? Sure. They're probably going to have to
02:40 try to negotiate to find some sort of alternative pathway here.
02:43 That is some way of not alienating the populations across the region
02:47 already pitched against them. By putting in even further sanctions,
02:51 let alone military intervention, you're going to push that
02:54 population possibly closer to Yevgeny Prigozhin and to Russia.
02:57 Here's the thing. You have the Chad president at the moment
02:59 mediating. He's already spoken to Abdur-Rahman Tiyani. Tiyani has
03:03 said so far the presidential guard leader, the self-declared
03:07 ruler, "I'm not interested." You have the people on the streets
03:10 that are listening to our correspondent in Naimi in the
03:12 capital saying they seem ambivalent. What's your take?
03:14 And remember, I'll add to that the fact that outside of Niamey
03:18 itself, where we've had those very powerful images over the
03:21 weekend of the French embassy being attacked, windows being
03:25 broken, Russian flags being waved in the streets, outside the
03:28 capital, there are several regions where there were actually
03:31 some rallies, limited and not so limited, in support of the
03:34 deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum. So it's not a monolithic
03:39 picture. You can't just say, "Oh, all of Niger is now
03:41 supporting the Pouches and they've all turned against Bazoum."
03:44 It's a patchwork. It's a mosaic of different allegiances and
03:47 affiliations. So it gives a misleading picture to just look
03:50 at the capital. But at the same time, the mood has been an
03:54 erosion of trust in general over against the state institutions,
03:59 against these leaders seen as elites doing the bidding of the
04:03 West, especially the colonial enemy France, and people have
04:06 been turning against them. And the risk here is that the mood
04:10 is anti-West, anti-France. And even though Russia is
04:13 technically trying to play it right now very cool and actually
04:16 calling for a restoration, all sides to show restraint, the
04:20 Kremlin has been very restrained in its official communique. We
04:23 have Evgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner leader, he's been very
04:25 prominent, making it clear that Wagner is very there and present
04:29 and ready to go in Africa. So the thing is, the mood of the
04:34 population can be much more pro-Russian now. And the pooch
04:38 leaders know that while there is going to be frantic negotiations
04:41 and mediations, Gavin, in the next days ahead, absolutely,
04:44 while this could still be reversed, sure. I also see right
04:48 now a sense that right now these pooch leaders are also very
04:51 cognizant that they can get the population on their side in a
04:55 block against the West, against France.
04:57 You made a good point there about Prigozhin, who's
05:00 potentially the unofficial voice, but the Kremlin in the
05:02 last hour or so saying that they want to see restraint, a
05:04 restoration of diplomatic means. They're not saying they want to
05:07 see the old government coming back, they're saying restoration
05:10 to democracy. Who has got the most to lose here if the
05:13 military junta stay on?
05:15 Well, obviously, the most to lose are a lot of the Western
05:18 powers and plus the democratically elected presidents
05:20 who've been deposed across the region, because they will no
05:23 longer be in control. You will have juntas, basically
05:26 undemocratically elected military juntas, all in power.
05:29 Maybe they'll end up cooperating with each other against
05:31 terrorists very effectively. Who knows? But at the end of the
05:34 day, you won't have those democratic institutions with the
05:37 burnish of democracy, at least operating in the region. France
05:40 stands a lot to use. The US does have 1100 soldiers and some
05:42 drone bases that it's used to conduct operations against
05:46 militants, jihadist militants in the region. However, France
05:49 relies heavily on the US for intelligence. France has 1500
05:52 troops, it has the heaviest presence there. So if the US
05:55 were to fall, you would also have France. If the US were to
05:58 pull out in any way, it would be less of a hit to the US, then
06:01 it would be to France, which has had a bigger presence, a bigger
06:04 footprint, if you will, in that region in many respects, and
06:07 especially right now in Niger, after redeploying its troops
06:10 from Mali and Burkina Faso, from which it was forced out after
06:13 their own coups.