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00:00 to Mark Naylor, who's a freelance journalist.
00:02 Thanks very much for joining us on the programme.
00:04 A disappointing night for the Conservatives,
00:06 would you agree?
00:07 - Well, I think depending on how you look at this,
00:12 everyone or no one won.
00:14 The Conservatives are certainly disappointed
00:18 that they didn't increase their share
00:20 in the National Congress by as much as they were hoping to.
00:23 The earliest polls suggested that they were going to win
00:26 quite a few more seats than they did do last night
00:28 in the end.
00:29 But on the other hand, they still have technically won.
00:32 So that means that they still have the first shot
00:35 at forming Spain's next government.
00:39 Should also be said that Pedro Sanchez
00:41 hasn't had a majority either for the last four years.
00:45 So it is possible to govern in Spain
00:46 without a parliamentary majority,
00:49 and that might well happen now with either
00:52 a centre-right bloc or a centre-left bloc.
00:55 - Yeah, the left supporters are still convinced
00:57 they can form a government.
00:59 Have a listen to this.
01:00 This is a few of their supporters.
01:02 - Mission accomplished.
01:07 We did it.
01:08 - I had hoped that he would win,
01:12 even if he has to make a deal.
01:14 The key is to safeguard leftist policies
01:16 and keep moving forward in this country,
01:18 something that the right wing doesn't want.
01:27 - The left didn't score the victory it should have scored,
01:29 given the enemy we face.
01:31 But we will be able to form a government
01:33 and we'll be able to stop those who want to destroy Spain.
01:36 So I'm really happy.
01:37 - So they sound pretty convinced there.
01:41 I mean, do you think if the right fail to form a government
01:44 that the left may be able to?
01:46 - Yeah, I certainly see no reason why not.
01:50 I mean, in a way, this election is nothing new.
01:54 This sort of very uncertain result
01:56 immediately after the election,
01:58 followed by a period of political deadlock
01:59 and/or negotiation.
02:01 We've seen this ever since 2015,
02:04 when the original two-party system was exploded
02:09 by the emergence of newer, smaller parties.
02:11 So yes, it's certainly not a given.
02:15 It's not a certainty at the moment
02:16 that the right wing will now go ahead
02:18 and form a center-right government.
02:21 And then of course, the next shot
02:24 will go to Pedro Sánchez,
02:26 likely now looking at end of August, early September.
02:29 Frankly, he's got as good a chance
02:33 as the right wing got
02:35 for forming the next Spanish government at this point.
02:38 - Who do you think are the kingmakers?
02:39 Our correspondent in Madrid was telling me earlier on
02:42 that Carlos Puigdemont, who's the leader, of course,
02:45 of the Catalan separatists is one key player now.
02:50 - Yes, again, I think it will be the smaller parties
02:55 that are key in this.
02:58 I mean, the Catalan separatists have been absolutely crucial
03:03 over the last four years
03:04 in terms of lending support to Pedro Sánchez and Puigdemont.
03:09 Even together, they didn't have a parliamentary majority,
03:11 but they've still managed to do an awful lot
03:13 over the last four years.
03:15 They've passed budgets, for example,
03:17 with, well, not without problems,
03:19 but they've managed to pass national budgets.
03:21 And crucial to that has been the votes
03:23 of Catalan separatist parties and Basque separatist parties.
03:28 Both blocs, either the next Spanish government
03:33 is centre-right or centre-left,
03:34 both blocs will need the votes of smaller parties,
03:38 and likely that will come in the form of support
03:41 from Basque or Catalan nationalists, again.
03:44 - And looking slightly further ahead,
03:46 of course, a lot of people saying that it's most likely
03:48 this is now gonna just head to new elections,
03:51 possibly before the year end.
03:53 - Yeah, again, and again, that wouldn't be something new.
03:58 2019 in Spain, there were two general elections
04:01 precisely for this reason.
04:02 In fact, the first one was called
04:04 as an early snap election, again, by Sánchez,
04:07 and he actually succeeded, arguably more in that one
04:10 than he did last night.
04:11 He upped his share of seats in Congress quite dramatically.
04:14 So again, this is just the norm now
04:18 in Spain's fractured political scene
04:20 that no party has been able to win a majority
04:23 for over four years now.
04:25 And it's, I'd say at this point, more than likely
04:28 that we'll see another election before the year's out.
04:30 - Mark Naylor, good to talk to you on the programme today.
04:32 Thanks very much, that's Mark Naylor.
04:33 - Thanks very much.
04:34 - Free Lines journalist joining us there from Malaga.