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00:00 We're joined in the studio by International Affairs Editor Douglas Herbert.
00:03 Doug, we're hearing about a plane landing in Belarus, Minsk to be exact, but in the
00:10 meantime, precautions, whereabouts are still unknown.
00:13 He's believed to be heading to Belarus under the terms of that deal announced by the Belarusian
00:19 President Lukashenko.
00:20 But what more do we know about the deal indeed?
00:24 We know very little.
00:25 Aside from what Lukashenko himself announced about this deal, you know, sort of casting
00:31 himself as the main broker, the man thanks to whom Putin's hide was saved from mutiny
00:37 and Prigozhin has sort of an exit ramp to use in the face of what was shaping up to
00:43 be a defeat as he was approaching Moscow.
00:46 Look, you're right to underline the fact that, yes, there are reports of a plane believed
00:51 to be carrying Prigozhin landing near Minsk until we see him, we as journalists know,
00:55 seeing is the best form of verification.
00:58 Hasn't been seen yet, believed to be.
01:00 So he may be in Belarus.
01:01 The fact is he hasn't been seen since the rebellion, since he was seen leaving Rostov
01:08 to cheering throngs of supporters, taking selfies and videos and shaking his hand.
01:13 He has been heard in that 11 minute video that he that he issued yesterday from an unspecified
01:19 location.
01:20 Look, Lukashenko's role here is interesting because, yes, Lukashenko has been co and Putin
01:25 have been co-dependents ever since Putin stepped in to basically save Lukashenko from an election
01:30 that Lukashenko stole in 2020.
01:33 Fraudulent election, a rigged election, according to every international observer you can name.
01:39 Putin has seen hasn't explicitly called him that, but has probably seen Lukashenko as
01:44 a vassal, someone who has depended on him.
01:47 And Lukashenko knew it, especially Lukashenko's economy crippled more than ever after the
01:51 pandemic because of sanctions reliant on Putin.
01:55 This move and the reason Lukashenko has such an interest in playing up his role in brokering
02:00 this pact and saving bailing out Putin is because of that dependency.
02:05 If he can steal some of that thunder, if he can get a little bit of his mojo back, so
02:10 to speak, he could be seen less as a vassal in Putin's eyes and he could perhaps be seen
02:14 more as an equal partner.
02:16 We know that Putin has essentially seen Belarus as part of a broader sort of geopolitical
02:22 entity as wanted closer union.
02:25 Lukashenko's had no choice but to sort of nod submissively to it.
02:28 But there is no love lost, really, I don't think, between Lukashenko and Putin.
02:31 These are not men who love each other.
02:33 These are men who needed each other.
02:34 They knew it.
02:35 So Lukashenko's role will hopefully become clearer in the coming days and weeks.
02:39 What is clear is he is the biggest beneficiary narrative wise right now of this failed mutiny
02:44 because he's the man seen as having saved the day in a sense for both men.
02:49 Now, what does Ukraine and its allies have to say to those remarks by Vladimir Putin
02:55 about their supposed behind the scenes involvement in all of this?
03:00 Yeah, I mean, you know, Putin has had a long standing theme and that, as you know, and
03:05 this is not the first time I've talked about this.
03:07 The theme, the narrative being a narrative that has been, you know, basically thundered
03:13 on about by the state controlled media that the West is uniquely vendetta bent and hell
03:19 bent on destroying and humiliating Mother Russia.
03:23 This is a narrative of the West against Russia.
03:25 We are protecting our motherland, Mother Russia, against these evil doers out to get us and
03:30 the neo Nazis in Ukraine, as he calls them.
03:33 What the West knows, if nothing else about Putin, is it knows that narrative by heart.
03:38 The West was ready for the remarks that Putin gave in this less than five minute, but visibly
03:43 angry, if not irate speech, lashing out at the West, essentially accusing the West, Ukraine
03:49 and its allies of fomenting what's now being called the pre-Gaussian rebellion, fomenting
03:54 it.
03:55 Why?
03:56 Because anything that divides Russia, anything that helps humiliate Russia, weakens Russia,
04:00 brings Russia to its knees.
04:02 Anything to that extent is good for the West.
04:05 Biden basically he has had none of it.
04:08 They knew this was coming even as it was unfolding.
04:11 The rebellion, they made it very clear.
04:12 U.S. not involved.
04:14 We are not involved in this.
04:16 They were watching it unfold.
04:17 Biden did convene a conference call at the White House with allies as it was unfolding
04:21 to coordinate, to try to, you know, keep tabs on what was happening.
04:26 They're naturally concerned about it.
04:28 But we have nothing, nothing to do with it.
04:29 They were basically trying to steal Putin's thunder, steal that narrative, deprive him
04:34 of that West against Russian narrative before it could even come out of his mouth.
04:39 Dirk Herbert, thank you so much for that.