Ukraine-China dialogue: "A Chinese balancing act"
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00:00 One thing I think we need to remember, too, about China, just in terms of timing of this
00:04 phone call with Zelensky and territorial ambition, is that at the outset of the Ukraine war,
00:12 just days before, China had had this conversation with Russia about the so-called no-limits
00:17 partnership, and then Russia invades, and then U.S. intelligence officials inform everybody
00:23 that Xi Jinping, according to their intelligence, was actually caught off guard by that.
00:27 And so I think we see this balancing act from Xi Jinping and from China about territorial
00:33 ambition, particularly as we consider what China is going to do about Taiwan or not do
00:37 about Taiwan.
00:39 And so I think we see this balancing act from China here.
00:43 And I think as far as the reaction in Europe goes, we've seen many foreign ministers come
00:48 out and say, you know, this is exactly why we don't think China should be trying to broker
00:53 a peace here in Ukraine.
00:55 But we see that these relationships continuing to mold, even to this day.
00:59 What irked, Shannon, the Ukrainians was that the Chinese named a diplomat who would be
01:06 in charge of brokering, but it wasn't somebody from their Europe bureau, it was somebody
01:11 from their Eurasia bureau.
01:14 Yes, I believe it was someone who's a former, and correct me if I'm wrong, a former ambassador
01:21 to Russia, which is a very interesting choice.
01:23 And I think, and I'm curious what the rest of the panel thinks today on this, the conversation
01:30 that Zelensky had about their phone call afterwards was, you know, we need to lean on China here
01:35 and take advantage of the leverage they have and the power they have.
01:38 And I'm curious where everyone thinks that relationship is going to.
01:42 Rika Koltman, China was Ukraine's number one trading partner before the fighting began
01:47 in February 2020.
01:48 Yeah, and I think there are several leaders who think that if there's one country who
01:53 has an influence on Russia, then it's China.
01:56 And Macron was pushing for it, and the Germans are also pushing China into that direction.
02:02 They don't really want them to be the mediator, but still use its influence.
02:06 But on the same hand, they are very skeptical that it will happen, because China will always
02:11 keep its close ties to Russia, and they try to be neutral, and they're not using any influence.
02:19 I mean, they will always keep its close ties to Russia.
02:22 You just heard Robert Parson say they're close, but they're also happy to sap Russia's power.
02:27 Yes, but they're still dependent, and they still need their energy, and they still need
02:32 them as a trade partner.
02:33 So I think they will not meddle.
02:37 And the only thing that when Scholz went, and they were asking and trying and pushing
02:45 them into the direction to be more active in Ukraine, and the only thing that they said
02:50 is, "So please don't use nuclear weapons."
02:53 And that was so like nothing really that came out.
02:57 But they're not going to do more than that, I think.
02:59 I think China is very happy to buy discounted Russian oil.
03:04 Absolutely.
03:05 I mean, it's been Russia, along with India, China has become the big buyer of Russian
03:11 oil since the war in Ukraine began.
03:13 And yeah, obviously, that gives China a lot of leverage over Russia, but that may not
03:18 be a situation that really they're inclined to change.
03:22 And also given the fact that China, just like Russia, is in a big fight with the United
03:27 States.
03:28 And so it's not just Europe that's in play here.
03:30 It's the United States, both countries' relationship with the United States.
03:33 And they're competing in Africa as well.
03:36 I mean, both are very, very active and investing.
03:39 And Russia has a Wagner mercenaries in several countries.
03:43 China is for years investing, investing, investing.
03:46 So there's also another playing field where they're competing.
03:51 You mentioned the German chancellor.
03:53 He's a social democrat.
03:55 I don't know if you've seen Ulrike Kohlermann, but the Western press has been gushing ever
03:59 since her visit to Beijing.
04:01 The German foreign minister, she's a green because of her straight talk when it comes
04:06 to Beijing.
04:08 What is Germany's policy?
04:10 The thing is we have a coalition.
04:13 So sometimes there are several parts of this coalition that are not really talking the
04:18 same language.
04:19 Robert Parsons, right now, the role of China since Macron's trip, picking up on the point
04:28 made earlier by Ulrike, the role of China in Ukraine, how is it evolving?
04:34 Well, look, you know, the Chinese are trying to position themselves so that they can play
04:38 perhaps a similar role to the one they played in the relationship, the talks between Saudi
04:42 Arabia and Iran.
04:44 They see themselves as one of the major powers in the world now, that they want to be in
04:49 a position to take a key leading role, as the United States has always done up until
04:55 now, in settling these sort of disputes.
04:58 And that's why the Chinese are presenting themselves now as neutral, although many people
05:01 in the West would not regard them as neutral at all.
05:04 That's why they keep repeating this.
05:06 You know, we are neutral.
05:07 We're not going to pour fire, alcohol, whatever the expression was, petrol onto the fire.
05:13 But they're using Russia's talking points when they describe, they called it, the readout
05:18 of the phone call between Zelensky and Xi called it the crisis in Ukraine.
05:23 Didn't mention Russia's invasion.
05:24 Exactly.
05:25 And they were convinced at this stage, and the 12 point plan that they put forward was
05:28 regarded by the Ukrainians and by supporters of Ukraine as a complete non-starter.
05:33 They weren't even consulted.
05:35 Yeah, they weren't even consulted.
05:37 Yeah.
05:38 But it's important for the Ukrainians to keep the Chinese on side.
05:41 You know, they recognize that if anybody can influence Moscow, it is Beijing.
05:47 And it's very important for them.
05:49 And just one final point on that, Shan, if ever, because the National Security Council
05:54 spokesperson at the White House, after that phone call, called it, quote, "a good thing."
06:00 Explain, with the enmity these days between Beijing and Washington, can you explain a
06:06 little?
06:07 You know, I think when we look at the relationship between U.S. and China, one thing to remember,
06:13 too, is that U.S. officials, when they talk about China's relationship to a potential
06:19 conflict with Taiwan, they say conflict is not inevitable.
06:23 And so I think seeing this conversation where China's interested in potentially brokering
06:28 peace or a ceasefire or I think what they're calling a political settlement might look
06:32 like good news to Washington.
06:36 And I think it's also important we remember when it comes to the Chinese perspective,
06:40 historically, it's all about winning wars without actually fighting them.
06:44 And so I wonder if it's this focus on increased diplomacy that might be a good sign.