Vers un "atterrissage en douceur" de l’économie européenne ?
Après une année record avec une inflation galopante en 2022, la zone euro devrait connaître un peu plus de calme dans les prochains mois.
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00:00 -C'est bon, c'est bon.
00:02 -Dieu, mon Assad, je vous en prie.
00:10 Dieu, mon...
00:12 Je vous en prie, Dieu.
00:14 -Une fois, une semaine auparavant,
00:17 je vous ai demandé de me rencontrer
00:18 pour comprendre comment vous allez.
00:20 Cet instrument...
00:22 -I certainly think the situation in Europe
00:24 is considerably better than I would have predicted
00:27 a few months ago.
00:28 We still have very strong labor markets
00:31 across Europe,
00:32 and growth from most of the euro area economies,
00:35 including as projected by the IMF,
00:37 of 0.8% for this year,
00:40 is a lot better than it was just a few months ago.
00:44 And I also am of the view that inflation in Europe
00:48 will come down very dramatically
00:51 over the course of this year.
00:53 I think Europe is heading for a soft landing,
00:57 if you can put it that way.
00:58 -I want to echo what Nadia said about the global sovereign
01:01 at that roundtable.
01:03 Resilient going forward in the areas of health...
01:06 -We see a recession in a few countries,
01:11 and there is certainly in some countries a recession risk,
01:14 but it's very different from what we foresaw
01:18 and feared for even in January.
01:22 [indistinct chatter]
01:25 -In Europe, and also countries like Japan and elsewhere,
01:33 where we have very important demographic deflation,
01:38 basically the population is declining,
01:41 which basically is a very powerful effect
01:43 to lower demand and prices.
01:46 That is...
01:47 So I don't think we're going to have
01:49 runaway inflation in Europe.
01:51 [indistinct chatter]
01:54 [music playing]
01:58 It's important to recognize that in 2022,
02:08 across Europe on average,
02:10 we had the largest decline in purchasing power in decades.
02:16 Somewhere between 5 and 6% on average
02:20 because of the rising energy prices.
02:24 And this is one of the reasons why, of course,
02:26 the economy has slowed down.
02:28 People have simply a lot less money to spend.
02:32 So it is therefore, in my opinion,
02:36 entirely appropriate that unions and workers demand
02:41 that their purchasing power is restored.
02:46 right now and in the years ahead.
02:48 [SILENCE]