Iowa’s Swing to Republicans Is a Matter of (Lacking a) Degree
- 7 years ago
Iowa’s Swing to Republicans Is a Matter of (Lacking a) Degree
“We educate the hell out of our people, but our economy can’t use them, so they leave,” said Dave Swenson,
an economist at Iowa State University who has documented the exodus of college graduates from the state.
“Is Iowa still a swing state?” said J. Ann Selzer, who has conducted polling here for 30 years
and was almost alone in forecasting the size of Mr. Trump’s victory.
“Voting behavior of the college educated versus the high school educated is driving everything right now,” said David Kochel, a prominent Republican strategist in the state, who added
that there was a “growing resentment of elites in both parties, but it definitely favors Republicans, and is a structural benefit to Republicans.”
Ms. Selzer said that in the past she did not even take education into account when weighting data.
Like many towns in Iowa, they have been losing more college-educated voters than they retain, leaving a less educated
and less mobile group of voters more likely to vote for Republicans, whom they see as more in touch with their lives and beliefs.
CLINTON, Iowa — The Clinton County Democratic Party headquarters is wedged in a nondescript brick building with an unpaved, dusty parking lot.
To win back voters, Mr. Vilsack said, Democrats need to counter Republicans’ mantra
that the federal government is rife with “fraud, waste and abuse,” by conveying that it is part of the solution, not the cause of all problems, and that it can be an engine for economic growth.
“We educate the hell out of our people, but our economy can’t use them, so they leave,” said Dave Swenson,
an economist at Iowa State University who has documented the exodus of college graduates from the state.
“Is Iowa still a swing state?” said J. Ann Selzer, who has conducted polling here for 30 years
and was almost alone in forecasting the size of Mr. Trump’s victory.
“Voting behavior of the college educated versus the high school educated is driving everything right now,” said David Kochel, a prominent Republican strategist in the state, who added
that there was a “growing resentment of elites in both parties, but it definitely favors Republicans, and is a structural benefit to Republicans.”
Ms. Selzer said that in the past she did not even take education into account when weighting data.
Like many towns in Iowa, they have been losing more college-educated voters than they retain, leaving a less educated
and less mobile group of voters more likely to vote for Republicans, whom they see as more in touch with their lives and beliefs.
CLINTON, Iowa — The Clinton County Democratic Party headquarters is wedged in a nondescript brick building with an unpaved, dusty parking lot.
To win back voters, Mr. Vilsack said, Democrats need to counter Republicans’ mantra
that the federal government is rife with “fraud, waste and abuse,” by conveying that it is part of the solution, not the cause of all problems, and that it can be an engine for economic growth.